2:00PM Water Cooler 1/10/2025 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Track of the Day

Brown Thrasher, Audrey Carroll Audubon Sanctuary, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Very liquid sound to this birds tune. Good. Human voices and Fish crows in background.” Cows, too.

In Case You May Miss…

1. New Covid knowledge, Covid and mortality.
2. LA Palisades Fireplace: Misinformation.
3. SEIU joins AFL-CIO.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Transition

“Trump discusses his viral second with Obama” [Politico]. “The president-elect was requested about it later in a Fox Information interview from his residence in Florida. ‘It did look very pleasant, I have to say,’ Trump mentioned. ‘I didn’t understand how pleasant it regarded. I noticed it in your great community, just a bit whereas in the past earlier than I got here in and I mentioned ‘Boy, they seem like two those who like one another.’ And we in all probability do,” he mentioned. Trump didn’t say what he and Obama had been speaking about within the viral second. ‘Now we have little totally different philosophies, proper? I don’t know, we simply obtained alongside. However I obtained together with everyone on that. You recognize we met backstage earlier than we went on, and I believed it was a fantastic service, however all of us obtained alongside very nicely.’” • In the meantime, the lipreader as soon as extra–

“Right here’s what Trump has to say about that viral trade with Barack Obama at Jimmy Carter’s funeral” [New York Post]. “Forensic lip reader Jeremy Freeman advised The Put up Thursday that it’s attainable they had been cautious of cameras being pointed at them as they sat shoulder to shoulder and wished to seem cordial. Freeman mentioned the 2 had been probably chatting about worldwide agreements. At one level, Trump leaned towards Obama and mentioned, ‘I’ve pulled out of that. It’s the circumstances. Are you able to think about that?’ Trump didn’t dive into the specifics of the pleasant chat. Obama laughed as Trump added, ‘And after, I’ll.’ ‘Name me at after, yep,’ Trump mentioned, to which Obama replied, ‘Are you able to simply … it needs to be good.’ ‘I can’t speak, we have now to discover a quiet place someday. It is a matter of significance, and we have to do that exterior in order that we are able to cope with it, actually, right this moment,’ Trump allegedly mentioned as Obama nodded.” • However what the heck is “the foy”? Foy means “feast,” however it’s mainly Scottish. One thing at Trump’s golf course?!” Or Claire Foy? (I believed I had the reply when “FOIA” popped into my head, however that amkes no sense in context.

* * *

“DOGE is dispatching brokers throughout U.S. authorities” [WaPo]. “Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are sending representatives to businesses throughout the federal authorities, 4 individuals accustomed to the matter mentioned, to start preliminary interviews that may form the tech executives’ huge ambitions to tame Washington’s sprawling forms. In latest days, aides with the nongovernmental [but not a corporation, not a 501(c)(3), not a private club, so what?] ‘Division [sic] of Authorities Effectivity’ tied to [which means?] President-elect Donald Trump’s transition workforce have spoken with staffers at greater than a dozen federal businesses, mentioned the individuals, who spoke on the situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to talk with the media. The businesses embody the Treasury Division, the Inside Income Service and the departments of Homeland Safety, Veterans Affairs, and Well being and Human Providers, the individuals mentioned.” Spoken underneath what authority? Elon’s mother? Extra: “On the similar time, Musk and Ramaswamy have considerably stepped up hiring for his or her new entity [Oh, DOGE is an entity], with greater than 50 staffers already figuring out of the places of work of SpaceX, Musk’s rocket-building firm, in downtown Washington, two of the individuals mentioned. DOGE goals to have a workers of near 100 individuals in place by Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, they mentioned. Whereas a lot about DOGE stays unclear [that is, we don’t know under what authority] — together with who’s paying the salaries of those staffers or precisely how DOGE representatives work with the formal transition workforce — the company outreach displays intensifying efforts by Musk and Ramaswamy to suggest what they are saying will likely be “drastic” cuts to federal spending and laws.” • One wonders what the DOGE onboard course of is like, and whether or not, for instance, it takes battle of curiosity into consideration.

“Is Elon Musk probably the most highly effective civilian since Rasputin?” [The Telegraph]. “Historical past is scattered with ‘civilians’ for whom self-regard and excessive wealth fed a way of megalomania that made them assume they need to, and will, change the political course of. Generally they managed to remain on the suitable aspect of the road of propriety and, by utilizing their wealth to do good works, did nice public companies. Generally their energy got here by displaying big ethical braveness that impressed a following, and never wealth, they usually circumvented the political class and adjusted the world for the higher. Usually it ended badly, in levels of humiliation and even loss of life [yikes], as their dedication to affect statecraft met resistance or ridicule from these supporting typical politics. Take, for instance, Grigory Rasputin….” • Take Rasputin. Please!

* * *

“Gabbard reverses course on key intel-gathering device as nomination teeters” [Punchbowl]. “Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for director of nationwide intelligence, is altering her tune on a key intelligence-gathering authority she as soon as sought to repeal as her Senate affirmation hangs within the steadiness. Gabbard’s previous criticisms of Part 702 of the International Intelligence Surveillance Act have emerged as a central challenge in her affirmation course of, leaving GOP senators — together with some in management — more and more skeptical concerning the former Democrat’s affirmation prospects. In her first public feedback since being nominated, Gabbard advised us in an unique assertion that she now helps Part 702, saying this system is ‘essential’ and ‘have to be safeguarded to guard our nation whereas making certain the civil liberties of Individuals.’ ;If confirmed as DNI, I’ll uphold Individuals’ Fourth Modification rights whereas sustaining very important nationwide safety instruments like Part 702 to make sure the security and freedom of the American individuals,’ Gabbard mentioned. In personal conferences, senators are questioning Gabbard about laws she launched in 2020 that may repeal Part 702. Nevertheless, Gabbard now seems to be strolling that again, citing Fourth Modification protections carried out since then to forestall the incidental assortment of Individuals’ knowledge.” • Appears like some Republicans love spooks simply as a lot as Democrats do.

* * *

“How Trump Got here Round to Crypto — and What Crypto Needs in Return” [Bloomberg]. “Trump nominated crypto supporter Paul Atkins to interchange Gensler, and that announcement helped Bitcoin climb above $100,000 for the primary time. The president-elect nominated David Sacks to the newly created place of synthetic intelligence and crypto czar. Trump can also be making a crypto advisory group, made up of backers of the trade. Trump mentioned in a December Reality Social put up that Bo Hines would be the govt director of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Property, reporting to Sacks. Trump mentioned he plans to have the US authorities preserve relatively than promote Bitcoin holdings seized by regulation enforcement, making these belongings the idea of a so-called strategic Bitcoin stockpile. Trump has additionally mentioned he would really like all Bitcoin to be mined within the US; this promise could show troublesome to satisfy because of the actuality of decentralized networks and cheaper prices of vitality in different components of the world.” • “Strategic Bitcoin” my Candy Aunt Fanny.

Lawfare

“Trump sentenced to unconditional discharge in New York hush cash case, avoiding jail” [CNBC]. “President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced with none penalties Friday in his New York felony hush cash case, 10 days earlier than his inauguration for a second White Home time period. Manhattan Choose Juan Merchan sentenced Trump to “unconditional discharge,” which means no jail, no probation and no advantageous.” • Totally applicable for Hitler!

Democrats en déshabillé

“Opening the DNC’s Black Field” [Micah Sifrey, The American Prospect]. “In accordance with the DNC, there are 448 lively members of the nationwide committee, together with 200 elected members from 57 states, territories, and Democrats Overseas; members representing 16 affiliate teams; and 73 ‘at-large’ members who had been elected as a slate appointed in 2021 by the occasion chairman, Jaime Harrison. For a celebration that claims the phrase ‘democratic’ and insists that it’s a champion of transparency and accountability in authorities, the official roster of those 448 voters shouldn’t be public. Michael Kapp, a DNC member from California who was first elected to that place by his state occasion’s govt committee in 2016, advised me the record isn’t public ‘as a result of it’s the DNC—it’s a black field.’ He advised me that management holds tightly to the record to forestall any organizing past their management. Right this moment, we’re going to open up the DNC’s black field. The record we’re publishing was leaked to me by a trusted supply with lengthy expertise with the nationwide occasion. Like Kapp, this particular person thinks it’s absurd that the occasion’s roster of voting members is secret. Certainly, since there isn’t a official public record, every of the candidates operating for chair and different positions has undoubtedly needed to create their very own tallies from scratch—making it very possible our record comes from a candidate’s whip operation.” • Anybody we all know?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Unstoppable Rise of Vitality Realism” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “For the final decade, Democrats and the left have ever extra eagerly embraced a local weather catastrophist narrative on vitality coverage…. So what have the Democrats gained from their fervent advocacy for local weather catastrophism? Not a lot…. Nor have Democrats been rewarded with a political bonanza for his or her embrace of local weather catastrophism. Fairly the opposite. They only misplaced the presidential election to an opponent who says “drill, child, drill” and whose precedence is affordable, plentiful vitality—not clear vitality…. Can Democrats wean themselves away from local weather catastrophism and their obsession with web zero? It could possibly be troublesome. Their web zero dedication stems from the extraordinarily excessive precedence positioned on this objective by the educated elites and activists who now dominate the occasion. These elites and activists—not like working-class voters—imagine that nothing is extra vital than stopping world warming since it isn’t only a downside, however an ‘existential disaster’ that have to be confronted as quickly as attainable to forestall a worldwide apocalypse.” • A lot to ponder.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

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Keep protected on the market!

Airborne Transmission

“Science tells us that moveable air filters cut back infections. It’s time for public well being authorities to make this clear” [Journal of Infection and Public Health]. “Over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian public well being advisors and decision-makers have shared conflicted and complicated messages concerning the effectiveness of moveable air filters (PAFs) in controlling the unfold of airborne infectious ailments… Illnesses corresponding to COVID-19 are transmitted by respiratory particles that comprise infectious materials. If these particles are available in contact with the mucous membranes of a inclined particular person, there’s a danger of an infection. On the whole, there’s a dose-response relationship—the extra infectious materials within the air, the larger the danger of an infection. Thus, any mitigation measures that take away these particles from the air (or inactivate infectious supplies) will cut back the danger of transmission… This science is supported by many years of analysis and public well being and well being care apply demonstrating the effectiveness of PAFs in decreasing the transmission of airborne ailments…. Whereas proof demonstrates that filtration reduces concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA within the air, this analysis mustn’t have been required by public well being authorities earlier than implementation. PAFs, like different engineering interventions corresponding to seat belts, parachutes and bridges, are designed and evaluated in line with the legal guidelines of physics.” • Savage indictment of public well being and hospital an infection management,

Morbidity and Mortality

“The way forward for extra mortality after COVID-19” [Swiss Re Institute]. “Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations. This impact appears generally independent of healthcare systems and population health. This trend is evident even after accounting for shifting population sizes, and the range of reporting mechanisms and death classifications that make inter-country comparisons complex. There is also likely a degree of excess mortality under-reporting…. This represents a potential challenge for Life and Health (L&H) insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead, depending on how general population trends translate into the insured population. Ongoing excess mortality can have implications for L&H insurance claims and reserves. Excess mortality that continues to exceed current expectations may affect the long-term performance of in-force life portfolios as well as the pricing of new life policies.” And: “Our general population forecasts suggest that excess mortality will gradually tail off by 2033, to 0–3% in the US and 0–2.5% in the UK. In comparison, by our calculation excess mortality in 2023 was in the range of 3–7% for the US, and 5–8% in the UK. Under an optimistic scenario, we find that US and UK pandemic-linked excess mortality would disappear by 2028, reverting to pre-pandemic mortality expectations. Under a pessimistic scenario, we expect excess mortality to remain elevated until 2033, above pre-pandemic expectations.” • Handy chart:

How the Pandemic Increased US Deaths!
Visualized in 8 charts by @jwgale in @business

1. The Covid Pandemic Fueled a 4-12 months Mortality Surge within the US pic.twitter.com/H6CW6ya0sO

— Ziyad Al-Aly, MD (@zalaly) December 30, 2024

“Mortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Increased Than Predicted” [Actuaries Digital]. Australia. The Summary:

In abstract

• For the primary eight months of 2024, towards a baseline that features anticipated COVID-19 deaths:
  • whole mortality was 2% increased than predicted;
  • COVID-19 mortality was 70% increased than predicted;
  • Non-COVID respiratory mortality was 8% increased than predicted, with pneumonia deaths 14% increased; and
  • these outcomes are all statistically vital.
• There have been 5 deaths from COVID-19 for each loss of life from influenza.
• Mortality from non-respiratory causes has been near predicted.

Elite Maleficence

Mandy Cohen visits Nassau County:

⏪ to after I visited a wastewater facility in Nassau County in November 2023. Study extra about how this device helps us higher perceive & monitor ailments on the native stage 👇 pic.twitter.com/y9vqEGkW0R

— Mandy Ok. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) January 10, 2025

I’m blissful Cohen gave wastewater testing some wanted publicity, however this could have been time to put on a masks as an indication of resistance to Nassau County’s anti-masking ordinance.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely jumped.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Unemployment Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment rate in the United States went down to 4.1% in December of 2024 from 4.2% in the previous month, below market expectations of 4.2%.”

Manufacturing: “FAA says up to 574 Boeing 767 aircraft may require landing gear inspections” [Aerotime]. “The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has announced that up to 574 Boeing 767 aircraft may require landing gear inspections as part of an Airworthiness Directive (AD). The AD, issued on January 8, 2025, raised concerns over landing gear on US-registered 767-200s, 767-300s and 767-300 Freighters following an incident during maintenance. According to the FAA, the AD was ‘prompted by a report of a main landing gear (MLG) collapse event following maintenance where a grinder was operating outside of its input parameters, resulting in possible heat damage to the outer cylinder of the MLG.’”

Manufacturing: “Airbus Tops Rival Boeing with 766 Jet Deliveries in 2024” [Inc]. “Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024 and looked certain to maintain leadership of the jetmaking industry for a sixth year as arch-rival Boeing recovers cautiously from a prolonged internal crisis, company data showed.” But importantly: “Aerospace supply chains have been under pressure due in part to an exodus of experienced workers during the pandemic, with aviation competing with other sectors to recruit new labour.”

Tech: “Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01” [Rodney Brooks]. Fun stuff. Here is a handy chart of failed predictions for robot cars:

Legend: Dates in parens: When prediction was made. Dates in blue: When prediction will come true. Pink shading: Wrong prediction. Orange arrow: retraction.

And the kicker:

Pro tip: Think about this history of industry prognostications about fully autonomous driving being just around the corner when you read today’s prognostications about LLMs taking jobs, en masse, in the next couple of years, or humanoid robots being dirt cheap and being able to learn how to do any human manual task real real soon now. You know you have seen this movie before…

Very much worth reading in full (The author is Panasonic Professor of Robotics emeritus at MIT).

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 28 Fear (previous close: 32 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 33 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Jan 10 at 3:28:04 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Lord is aware of I maintain no transient for California Democrats (“All the pieces is like CalPERS”). However that is so over-the-top my tendency is to low cost any Republican protection of the California fires to zero.

“California wildfires: Police shoot down celebrities floating arson theories” [FOX]. “‘THERE IS an ARSONIST right here in LA,’ actor Henry Winkler wrote on Wednesday on X. ‘Might you be overwhelmed you unrecognizable !!! The ache you’ve gotten induced !!!’ Actress Alison Sweeney merely responded, ‘agreed.’ Singer Chris Brown took to his Instagram tales on Thursday and wrote, ‘Somebody beginning these fires. S— don’t add up.’ ‘Dancing with the Stars’ professional Peta Murgatroyd shared a tweet that was initially posted by political and cultural media character Xaviaer DuRousseau that reads: ‘LOS ANGELES / SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THERE ARE AT LEAST FIVE MEN GOING AROUND IN SKI MASKS STARTING FIRES. KEEP AN EYE OUT.” However: “Regardless of the varied claims, the Los Angeles Police Division advised Fox Information Digital, “Now we have not acquired any reviews of arson.’” • I don’t know why we’d imagine actors on this, any greater than, say, mainstream economists (of whom, see under). Then once more–

“Homeless man with ‘flamethrower’ busted on suspicion of arson close to LA’s Kenneth Fireplace after residents detain him” [New York Post]. “One witness advised Fox 11 that the suspect was ‘very targeted on transferring ahead’ with what the described as being extra like a blowtorch. ‘He was like, ‘I can’t cease. I can’t cease. I’m not placing this down. I’m doing this,” the witness mentioned. ‘And we’re like, ‘We will’t be doing that proper now.’” So a residents arrest is carried out: “Quickly after the suspect was taken into custody, the Los Angeles Police Division confirmed it was investigating the Kenneth Fireplace as possible arson. ‘Presently, that’s what we imagine. It’s being investigated as a criminal offense,’ LAPD Senior Lead Officer Sean Dinse initially advised KTLA. The most important crimes squad was introduced in as a result of he was ‘a attainable arson suspect,’ LAPD Assistant Chief Dominic Choi advised reporters in an replace later Friday. Nevertheless, the homeless man had so-far solely been arrested on a felony parole violation as a result of ‘there was not sufficient possible trigger to arrest this particular person on arson or suspicion on arson,’ Choi mentioned. ‘This investigation is ongoing, nonetheless,’ he confused, thanking the residents who tackled him and referred to as it in. It was not instantly clear what felony the suspect, who has nonetheless but to be publicly recognized, was on parole for.” • So, the Kenneth fireplace, and I think about that Winkler, et al., are considering of the Palisades fireplace. That mentioned, my priors did kick in. Strengthened as they consistently are….

“Economists Are within the Wilderness. Can They Discover a Means Again to Affect?” [New York Times]. • By no means have I felt happier to know of Betteridge’s Legislation.

Class Warfare

“The Labor Motion Simply Notched Two Large Wins” [The New Republic]. “One so seldom has the opportunity to report good news about labor unions that when two good things happen in the space of 24 hours that’s a triumph. The first is a rebuke to the incoming Trump administration. The second is an unacknowledged favor to it (but, more importantly, to the nation as well). Item One is that the Service Employees International Union, reversing a bad decision 20 years ago to disaffiliate with the AFL-CIO, is rejoining the labor federation. Even Andy Stern, who as SEIU president took the union out of the AFL-CIO and sought (in the end, unsuccessfully) to build a rival federation called Change to Win with the Teamsters and five smaller unions, said Wednesday that this is ‘an appropriate time to unite SEIU’s strength with other unions.’ The move will expand AFL-CIO membership from nearly 13 million to nearly 15 million. (Change to Win was a bust. It lost most of its affiliates, stopped calling itself a labor federation, and now operates as something called the Strategic Organizing Center.) Item Two is that the International Longshoremen’s Association, or ILA, which represents dockworkers on the East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, reached a deal on a new contract, averting a second dockworker strike. The first strike, in October, lasted three days before a wage deal was reached under heavy pressure on management from the Biden White House, with further negotiations postponed until after the presidential election.”

“Scientists mystified by massive structures found deep beneath the Pacific Ocean” [StudyFinds]. “Miles beneath the Pacific Ocean, in a region of Earth’s mantle where conventional wisdom says nothing unusual should exist, scientists have discovered something extraordinary. Using innovative technology to analyze seismic waves, researchers have identified massive structures that challenge fundamental theories about how our planet formed and evolved. It’s as if we’ve discovered a new geological continent – not on Earth’s surface, but deep within it.” • R’lyeh?