By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Extraordinarily affected person readers, I’m afraid brunch obtained completely uncontrolled. So that is fairly skeletal, though I’ll add in as a lot as I can, as quick as I can! Within the meantime, discuss amongst yourselves! –lambert

Fowl Music of the Day

Blue Mockingbird, alongside the canal, Oaxaca, MX (17,2, -96,751), Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.

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In Case You May Miss…

  1. Trump and the Jack Smith transient.
  2. Boeing and Longshoremen strikes.
  3. UCLA instruments up.

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Take him out”?!?

See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White Individuals.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing demise on their political enemies for a while. Now they yuk it up on daytime tv.

2024

Lower than forty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t turn the tide either. Despite the micturition and lamentation (very much including my own) about the Trump campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP” on the issues) do note the steady deterioration in Kamala’s position in the (aggregated) top battlegrounds. (Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars especially might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.

“Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Remains Effectively Tied” [RealClearPolling]. “The latest round of swing state polling indicates that neither Trump nor Harris has made significant gains in the swing states. In the RealClearPolitics Average of the Top Battleground States, the race is again a dead-even tie, meaning any small changes in the race over the next month could decide who wins the presidency. If these RCP Averages hold until Election Day, the race will be incredibly close. As the RCP No Toss-Up Map shows, if the election were decided by the current averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. However, the outcome hinges on Pennsylvania, where Trump leads by just 0.1 points, leaving the election a toss-up with a little over a month to go until Election Day.” • Then again–

If I turn all the leans Red or Blue at 270toWin, but give Harris North Carolina (based on Helene depressing Republican turnout in Western North Carolina (“Events, dear boy. Events”)), Harris wins, making — to my dismay — Pennsylvania irrelevant:

(Then again, if Michigan goes red, and Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump wins.)

“Investors turn to volatility trades to profit from tight US election” [Financial Times]. “[T]he tight race means trading volatility is seen as a safer bet than trying to guess which stocks or sectors will do well from a victory for former president Donald Trump or vice-president Kamala Harris. ‘Our base case is still that this is basically a toss-up, and most clients have coalesced around the same view,’ said Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity trading strategy at Citi. ‘If you talk to a client who thinks it’s 60-40 in favour of Trump, you could talk about owning bank stocks. If you think Kamala is more likely to win, trading a basket makes sense,’ he added. ‘But if you think it’s 50-50, it will be very hard to trade directionally, it’s more of a vol trade.’ Trading volatility typically requires investors to use more complicated derivatives trades, leading to a range of complex strategies with names such as ‘straddles’ and ‘collars’ that involve buying and selling several derivatives tied to individual stocks or an index such as the S&P 500.”

“October surprises are piling up, but a toss-up race seems impervious to shocks” [CNN]. “The White House is grappling with three challenges that could threaten the vice president’s hopes and offer an opening to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month before Election Day, the US faces the grave possibility of being dragged into a Middle East conflagration; a port workers’ strike could harm inflation-weary consumers; and political pressure is rising in the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Trump, meanwhile, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page document in which special counsel Jack Smith gives the fullest picture of his case in the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not guilty, but the filing re-injected his attempt to steal the last election into the frantic endgame of a campaign partially shaped by Democrats’ claims he poses an existential threat to American democracy. Each situation highlights potential vulnerabilities for both candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of tests facing Harris comes with potential economic, political and humanitarian consequences if the administration errs. And the new scrutiny of Trump’s behavior after the 2020 election could cause some voters to again question his fitness for the Oval Office.”

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Kamala (D): “Opinion: Vance is right. Harris and Walz are a threat to Americans’ free speech” [Jonathan Turley, USA Today]. On “fire in a croweded theatre: “[Walz] cited a case in which socialists Charles Schenck and Elizabeth Baer were arrested and convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Their ‘crime’ was to pass out flyers in opposition to the military draft during World War I. Schenck and Baer called on their fellow citizens not to ‘submit to intimidation’ and to ‘assert your rights.’ They argued, ‘If you do not assert and support your rights, you are helping to deny or disparage rights which it is the solemn duty of all citizens and residents of the United States to retain.’ They also described the military draft as ‘involuntary servitude.’ Holmes used his ‘fire in a theater’; line to justify the abusive conviction and incarceration. At the House hearing, when I was trying to explain that the justice later walked away from the line and Schenck was effectively overturned in 1969 in Brandenburg v. Ohio, [Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.] cut me off and said, ‘We don’t need a law class here.’ In the vice presidential debate, Walz showed that he and other Democratic leaders most certainly do need a class in First Amendment law.”

Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris announces 100% reimbursement of local Helene response costs during remarks in Augusta” [WABE]. “Vice President Kamala Harris announced Wednesday that President Joe Biden has approved Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for 100% reimbursement of local costs of responding to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene during remarks in Augusta, Georgia. Harris said the federal reimbursement will cover costs for services like food, water and shelter provided by local governments, debris removal and emergency services.” • Meanwhile–

Kamala (D):

However:

And:

I’m not sure that $750 would be the complete fee. Nonetheless, directionally that is appropriate: The empire issues orders of magnitude extra to our ruling class than the home inhabitants (although is in no way the way in which a MAGA voter would specific the matter). On the intense aspect, I can put the $750 in opposition to the $600 Biden nonetheless owes me, so I come out forward!

Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s Lengthy Recreation Will Pay Off” [The Nation]. “The basic instance of a slow-fuse debate second that ended up having an affect is Gerald Ford’s well-known gaffe in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. Keeping off critiques that his international coverage was detached to the oppression of the USSR, Ford declared, “I don’t consider that the Poles contemplate themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.” Ford’s level was a refined one: that even underneath Soviet rule, Poles had a spirit of resistance. However his wording made it sound like he was flippantly disregarding Soviet imperial domination of Jap Europe…. Over the following few days, the complete import of Ford’s phrases started to sink in, particularly after they had been highlighted over and over in press protection. The truth that Ford, removed from clarifying his remarks, stubbornly dug in solely made issues worse. Ford misplaced essential days in an election and solidified his popularity as an out-of-touch oaf…. Tuesday’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz is more likely to play out with the identical slow-fuse dynamic…. The moment polling completed after the controversy exhibits that it was principally a wash…. However even these ballot numbers needs to be handled as preliminary, as a result of Walz very neatly performed a protracted recreation within the debate…. The important thing to Walz’s technique was to not go after Vance immediately (since only a few voters care concerning the vp); moderately, Walz obtained Vance to commit himself to one among Trump’s most unpopular actions, inciting the January 6 assault on the Capitol (Walz’s damning “non-answer”). The Harris marketing campaign is correct to deal with this change. Much more than Gerald Ford’s Poland gaffe, it’s an error that illuminates—in an easy-to-understand approach—every thing mistaken with a candidate. Vance’s feedback present not simply his personal ethical cravenness but in addition the way in which Trump has bullied all those that work with him into accepting the Massive Lie concerning the 2024 marketing campaign. If the Harris marketing campaign and its surrogates maintain pushing this clip, they’ll lavatory down the Trump marketing campaign for days if not weeks in defending the indefensible.” • Hmm. An previous debate technique known as sand-bagging, though on this case the blow lands after the controversy is over. Ought to be occurring already, with solely 33 days to go.

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Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “One Month Earlier than Election Day, Decide Chutkan Permits Jack Smith to Broadcast His Proof” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Smith has argued, preposterously, that ‘the public‘ — by which he means Democrats — has a right to a speedy trial because of the importance of the Trump cases. To the contrary, the Constitution gives only the defendant a speedy-trial right, which defendants may and frequently do waive if they need more time to prepare their defense (also a constitutional right). The public has an interest in a just trial, not a prompt one — and there is nothing just about prosecutors’ filing four indictments against their party’s political rival with the objective of trying him before Election Day in a manner that gives him inadequate time to prepare for trial, let alone prepare for four trials…. And as for the asserted importance of the cases, it lies in their political consequence (if any), which is a factor that prosecutors and judges are not supposed to weigh; there are unambiguous Justice Department rules to this effect. For the umpteenth time, this is not to minimize Trump’s activities in connection with the 2020 election — the stop-the-steal scheme and the Capitol riot (for which I’ve repeatedly said Trump was rightly impeached, and should have been convicted and disqualified from future office; and over which I’ve repeatedly argued that Republicans were nuts to nominate him, as opposed to a more nationally viable candidate who, by now, would be ten points up against Kamala Harris). It is to stress that is not a legitimate law-enforcement or judicial priority to force a pre-election trial of those charges.” • On the Smith brief FWIW:

Case for the protection (although final I checked, Rasmussen was a polling operation, so what’s up with this?

Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “11 damning particulars in Jack Smith’s new transient within the Trump election case” [Politico]. “A lot of Smith’s transient targeted on Trump’s way of thinking within the weeks main as much as the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith described a slew of conversations suggesting that the then-president knew his claims of election fraud had been spurious. And Smith laid out proof that Trump’s sole goal was to remain in energy — not, as he and his legal professionals have claimed, to train legit authority over election integrity.”

Trump (R): “Trump calls Jack Smith submitting ‘pure election interference’ ” [NewsNation]. “Former President Donald Trump known as the unsealing of paperwork in his election interference case by particular counsel Jack Smith a “weaponization of the federal government” throughout an unique interview with NewsNation on Wednesday in Houston, Texas. The Republican nominee was at a non-public fundraiser when he instructed NewsNation’s Ali Bradley that Smith is a ‘deranged particular person’ following the dismissal of his separate categorized paperwork case in July. ‘This was a weaponization of the federal government … and launched 30 days earlier than the election,’ Trump stated of Wednesday’s developments. ‘My ballot numbers have gone up as an alternative of down. It’s pure election interference.’ The interview got here after prosecutors, in a courtroom submitting unsealed Wednesday, stated Trump “resorted to crimes” after shedding the 2020 election by disregarding the recommendation of his vp and different aides.”

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Trump (R): “Trump floats deporting authorized Haitian migrants residing in Ohio” [Axios]. “Trump, chatting with NewsNation in Houston, Texas, stated he would revoke the Non permanent Protected Standing (TPS) for Haitian immigrants and ‘deliver them again to their nation.’ ‘For my part, it’s not authorized. It’s not authorized for anyone to do,’ Trump stated. TPS is a federal program that permits migrants from some nations to legally reside in the US for a sure interval when the situations of their house nation are unsafe. Migrants from Haiti, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Venezuela are amongst some nations eligible for this system, requiring members to re-register with the Division of Homeland Safety every year. Haitians have been included within the TPS program since January 22, 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed round 220,000 folks.” • For some definition of “authorized.” 2010 looks as if moderately a very long time in the past.

Trump (R): “Melania Trump says she compelled Donald to drop hardline immigration coverage” [Guardian]. “Concerning baby separations, she continues [in her book]: ‘Whereas I help robust borders, what was occurring on the border was merely unacceptable. I instantly addressed my deep issues with Donald concerning the household separations, emphasizing the trauma it was inflicting these households. As a mom myself, I harassed: ‘The federal government shouldn’t be taking kids away from their dad and mom.’ I communicated with nice readability … ‘This has to cease.’ ‘Donald assured me that he would examine the difficulty, and on 20 June, he introduced the top of the household separation coverage.’ The primary woman’s intervention was reported on the time.”

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Kennedy (I): “Unique: A number of Ladies Claiming Romantic Relationships With RFK Jr. Threaten His Standing in Trump Orbit” [Mediate]. “At the very least three ladies are claiming to have had romantic relationships with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in simply the final 12 months, as he pursued a long-shot bid for the presidency, Mediaite has discovered.” Effectively, “three” is “a number of,” so. Extra: “Kennedy has lengthy been dogged by allegations of infidelity…. In an interview with The New York Solar, a number of days after Mediaite first reached out to Kennedy for remark, he was requested concerning the information of his alleged relationship with Nuzzi. He declined to talk about that particular story, however joked to his host, ‘I’ve so many skeletons in my closet, if they may vote I’d be king of the world.’”

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“Abortion Rights, Elections, Prison Justice, and A lot Extra: The 2024 State Poll Points to Watch” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. ” This 12 months, 41 states have a minimum of one measure on the poll for voters to weigh in on, and lots of have a number of measures. The best-profile problem on the poll this 12 months—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the poll, together with such purple and purple states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska additionally has an anti-abortion measure on the poll.” • Monumental roundup of all of the state ballots.

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CA: “Federal decide stops implementation of California misinformation regulation” [Courthouse News]. “A federal decide dominated Wednesday that California’s regulation prohibiting altered election-related communications doesn’t move constitutional scrutiny and the state can’t implement it. The choice by U.S. District Senior Decide John Mendez to problem a preliminary injunction is a win for Christopher Kohls, identified on-line as “Mr. Reagan,” who argued in his lawsuit that Meeting Invoice 2839 made computer-generated parody unlawful. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat, wrote the regulation banning digitally manipulated communications, like mailers and video adverts, which might be false or deceptive and goal an election employee, elected official, voting tools or folks working for workplace 4 months earlier than an election. Individuals who obtain such content material would be capable of search damages from the distributor. Kohls, who has some 360,000 YouTube subscribers, calls political satire a basic First Modification proper. His swimsuit is much like one filed Monday in federal courtroom by conservative humor web site The Babylon Bee, which focused two payments, one among them being AB 2839. ‘We’re gratified that the district courtroom agreed with our evaluation that new applied sciences don’t change the rules behind First Modification protections,’ Theodore Frank, one among Kohls’ attorneys, stated in a press release.”

MI: “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats fear that Harris stays ill-defined in swing state” [Associated Press]. “Democrats within the state have appeared ascendant since [2016], controlling the governorship, each Senate seats and the state legislature. However some occasion leaders listed below are apprehensive that development just isn’t sufficient to place distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris’ marketing campaign is banking on the truth that they’ve spent significantly more cash than Trump on adverts and have a stronger voter outreach program. Michigan is a state that Harris nearly definitely should win to seize the White Home, and Democrats’ issues are rooted within the worry that polls don’t register all Trump supporters each right here and in different battleground states because the marketing campaign enters a vital remaining part.” And the Muslim/Uncommitted vote: “The demise of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and different neighborhood leaders this week stated was killed in south Lebanon, has solely ignited anger within the historically Democratic space. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s demise was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White Home’s Nationwide Safety Council…. Harris might overcome divisions inside the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, house to Detroit, the place low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black neighborhood leaders famous that pleasure surged when Harris entered the race in the summertime, and that some momentum continues within the majority-Black metropolis of Eastpointe, simply north of Detroit.” Curiously: “‘Democrats’ monetary assets completely dwarf something that the Republicans have,’ stated former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “However Trump is making stops in areas which have by no means had presidential visits earlier than, and people are impactful with margins this shut.”

NC: “How Will Hurricane Helene Have an effect on This Wildly Shut Election?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. On North Carolina: “Clearly individuals who have misplaced properties or different possessions to excessive winds and (particularly) flooding and/or who lack energy or different necessities for an prolonged time period are particularly depending on emergency help and could also be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Past for these instantly affected, the perceived competence and compassion of presidency entities coping with catastrophe reduction and restoration efforts can have an effect on how voters assess these in workplace, notably in a high-profile state of affairs like that created by Helene. An American Enterprise Institute examine of [Hurricane] Sandy recommended that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a significant factor within the incumbent’s skill to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this discovering: ‘Totally 15 % of the citizens rated Obama’s hurricane response as a very powerful issue of their vote.’ On the different finish of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly detached response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly detrimental impact on perceptions of his presidency, despite the fact that it occurred nowhere near a nationwide election, as Reid Wilson defined… Whereas FEMA and HUD are usually the federal companies most concerned in catastrophe response and restoration, presidential management in a catastrophe at all times will get consideration, too, and the danger of detrimental publicity or graphic shows of unmet wants gained’t go away instantly. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving functions for help might trigger voter unhappiness lengthy after the preliminary injury is addressed. The underside line is that barring surprising developments or a serious sequence of screwups within the federal response, Hurricane Helene is more likely to mark a giant second within the lives of individuals in and close to the areas of devastation however in all probability gained’t a lot have an effect on their voting conduct. Clearly the campaigns and their allies might want to modify their get-out-the-vote operations and present some sensitivity to the struggling of individuals whose lives had been turned the other way up. We will solely hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the injury completed.” • These questions could be answered empirically, a minimum of in North Carolina, by reporting on roads being open, precincts open, and other people’s reactions typically. In fact, the press must go exterior Asheville to do that, so solutions appear unlikely.

PA: “Within the presidential election’s most essential state, the race is a lifeless warmth” [Brookings]. “In 2024, all roads result in Pennsylvania, the most important of the seven swing states. Possibly, the winner of the state will win the election. It’s the state that every candidate can least afford to lose. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin, she could have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the contested southern and southwestern states. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania in addition to Georgia and North Carolina, he could have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the southwest or the higher Midwest… Harris’ path to victory in Pennsylvania faces a key hurdle: The Democratic benefit in voter registration has continued the erosion that started proper after the Obama surge of 2008. Since 2020, the Democratic edge has been reduce in half, from 686,000 to simply 343,000, whereas Republican and Unbiased registration has continued to extend. As a share of the entire citizens, Republican registration rose from 39.0% in 2020 to 40.2% this 12 months whereas the Democratic share fell from 46.5% to 44.1%, lowering the Democratic edge from 7.5 factors to three.9 factors.”

PA: “One other ‘Arduous Tie’ within the Race for President in PA” [RealClearPennsylvania]. “Unbiased voters say that Trump could be higher for his or her private funds by a 50–38% margin. For the reason that prime problem for all voters stays the financial system, that’s benefit Trump. The subsequent most essential problem to voters is threats to democracy, adopted by immigration. Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in each the presidential and Senate races.” • Fascinating, that #2.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: Finally, the wastewater information appears improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to Faculty” bullet, a minimum of on the nationwide degree. The wastewater drop is strengthened by the positivity numbers as nicely.

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 23 Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC September 28 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data October 1:

National [6] CDC September 7:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 30: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC September 9: Variants[10] CDC September 9:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Much less intense!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XEC has entered the chat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Up, though lagged.

[10] (Travelers: Variants).

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 6,000 from the previous week to 225,000 on the period ending September 28th, surpassing market expectations of 220,000 to mark a new three-week high. The rise in claims kept initial counts above the averages recorded earlier this year, reinforcing the trend of a softening labor market and supporting predictions that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in each remaining decision this year.”

Employment SItuation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, slightly down from 75,891 in August, but 53% higher than 47,457 a year earlier. Technology announced the most job cuts….”

Manufacturing: “United States Factory Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured goods eased by 0.2% from the previous month to $590.4 billion in August of 2024, trimming the downwardly revised 4.9% jump in the previous month, and missing forecasts that it would have remained unchanged.”

* * *

“Everyone Is Getting the Dockworkers Strike All Wrong” [Salon]. “Yes, it’s a story about modern-day labor anxieties and union leverage—but it’s also about something far more complex than your typical workers-vs.-bosses toss-up…. But the dockworkers of today have to be skilled, knowledgeable, and dexterous enough to ensure that the incoming freight trucks, the hefty equipment, the potentially hazardous cargo, and the boats themselves operate safely and smoothly throughout all steps of the process… That premium on skill and labor, added to the union’s historic strength, makes these dockworkers ‘the highest-paid blue-collar workers in the country,’ as the American Prospect notes… The main sticking point, however, is displacement. The business interests in charge of the ports want to embed more self-propelling technology within dock work, whether that constitutes automated trucks, gates, or cranes. This trend has taken off at dozens of ports across the world. Still, multiple studies and real-world examples have shown that full or semi-automation does not actually do much to reduce costs or increase efficiency at the docks, although in certain applications, it can help to ensure human safety. And therein lies another primary conflict about tech at the docks: The Maritime Alliance is interested in leaving some leeway for automation, but the dockworkers want absolutely none. The work may be grueling, but it’s among the few organized blue-collar professions that can offer its employees a solid lifestyle and dignity.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Jet Catches Fire Before Takeoff, Prompting Airport Closure” [Men’s Journal]. “Almost 200 travelers were evacuated from a Boeing jet as walls of flames spewed from one of the engines, video shared to X (formerly Twitter) shows. The incident occurred early on Wednesday morning at Italy’s Brindisi Airport shortly before a Boeing 737 operated by Ryanair was scheduled to take off. Smoke filled the cabin as crews quickly responded and evacuated the jet, but not before one passenger captured footage of the flames licking the plane’s window.” • Whoops. (Reuters mentions “fumes.”)

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Frail Finances Give Strikers All the Power” [Bloomberg]. “The company is in a dire financial position, burning through billions of dollars of cash and teetering at the edge of having its credit rating cut to junk. The company has floated the idea of raising $10 billion or more by selling shares, which wouldn’t happen until the strike is resolved. The approximately 33,000 machinists on strike know this. Time is on their side. … Boeing needs to reach a deal with its striking workers and crank up aircraft production. The backlog of aircraft orders is piling up. This is cash and financial relief just waiting to be unlocked. No doubt a hefty pay raise will squeeze future profit margins, but it’s unlikely the company, being in such as weakened state, can outlast the determination of its workers…. It’s time for new Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg to settle this strike and begin to repair labor relations. Without buy-in from its workforce, the company can’t begin to change a factory-floor culture that had eroded on safety and quality to the point where the Federal Aviation Administration had to intervene.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 67 Greed (previous close: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 68 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Surely not?

Gallery

For Alma-Tadema stans, thread value studying in full:

Groves of Academe

“College students and school object to UCLA’s buy of extra army {hardware}” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The University of California Regents approved the purchase of military equipment at September’s UC Regents meeting at UCLA. The unanimous vote took place behind closed doors while the UCLA Police Department (UCPD), dressed in riot gear, forced those who came to give public comment outside of the building. The approved purchases include 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm impact munitions, 12 drones, and nine less-lethal launchers across six University of California campuses.” • Oh.

News of the Wired

No:

Make that holder coin-operated, and also you’ve obtained a rentier’s cup.

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “That is a kind of that may drive you loopy. Vertical traces are appropriate and even the horizontal railing is nice, however the breakwater simply above it provides an phantasm of off-kilterness (phrase?).” Readers?

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism website. For those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

For those who hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on tips on how to ship a test. Thanks!

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