2:00PM Water Cooler 11/14/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I had a Twitter debacle, and so it is a little bit gentle. Extra quickly. –lambert UPDATE All carried out!

Hen Music of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Huge Bend NP–Chisos Basin Campground, Brewster, Texas, United States. “Singing lustily earlier than first gentle.” Certainly! This spectrogram reveals the virtuosity very clearly (not all do).

In Case You May Miss…

1. Trump transition: Biden assembly, Gabbard, Gaetz.
2. Deploy the Blame Cannons! Democrat suicide?
3. Boeing layoffs.
4. “Is the Love Music Dying?”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“J6 Shocker: Cellphone corporations dispute FBI testimony on pipe bombs suspect, key lawmaker reveals” [Just the News]. “lular carriers have advised Congress they possess intact telephone utilization information from the neighborhood the place two pipe bombs have been planted in the course of the Jan. 6 incident, instantly disputing FBI testimony that brokers couldn’t establish a suspect as a result of the telephone information was corrupted, a key Home chairman tells Simply the Information. The revelations from Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., the chairman of the Home Administration oversight subcommittee, provides new intrigue to a debate that has gripped Washington for almost 4 years: Why can’t the FBI with a lot proof and manpower establish the suspect who planted the explosive units on the Democrat and Republican Occasion headquarters hours earlier than the Capitol was breached…. The issues in regards to the unsolved Jan. 6 pipe bombs have been heightened by proof Loudermilk disclosed within the final 12 months exhibiting that then-Vice President-elect Kamala Harris was taken inside 10 yards of one of many dwell bombs on the morning of Jan. 6 as a result of the Secret Service didn’t do a radical safety sweep. As well as, Loudermilk additionally supplied safety digicam video footage and nonetheless photographs of the suspect holding a tool that lawmakers consider was a cellphone, additional making the telephone information a possible case-solving piece of proof.” • We additionally don’t know who arrange the well-known gallows, or why it wasn’t taken down.

Biden Administration

“Particular counsel Jack Smith stands down in Trump categorized docs case, asks court docket to halt attraction” [New York Post]. “Particular counsel Jack Smith requested a federal appellate court docket on Wednesday to halt his attraction in President-elect Donald Trump’s categorized paperwork case, citing the outcomes of the 2024 election. ‘On account of the election held on November 5, 2024, one of many defendants on this case, Donald J. Trump, is predicted to be licensed as President-elect on January 6, 2025, and inaugurated on January 20, 2025,’ Smith wrote to the Atlanta-based eleventh US Circuit Court docket of Appeals. ‘The Authorities respectfully requests that the Court docket maintain this attraction in abeyance — and keep the deadline for the Authorities’s reply temporary, which is at the moment due on November 15, 2024 — till December 2, 2024, to afford the Authorities time to evaluate this unprecedented circumstance and decide the suitable course going ahead per Division of Justice coverage,’ the federal prosecutor added.”

Trump Transition

“Trump triumphantly returns to White Home as Biden pledges ‘clean transition’” [Washington Times]. “‘I look forward … to having a smooth transition. We’ll do everything we can to make sure you’re accommodated what you need,’ a smiling Mr. Biden said as he congratulated a man who had relentlessly attacked his mental capacity and branded his administration as a ‘disaster.’ Mr. Trump also pledged that the transition will be ‘as smooth as it can get.’ ‘Politics is tough, and in many cases, it’s not a nice world, but it’s a nice world today,’ Mr. Trump said. They shook hands in front of a roaring fire in the Oval Office.” • What was burning in the fire? The Epstein tapes and a copy of The Enabling Act?

“Donald Trump reveals exclusively to The Post what he and Biden spoke about at DC meeting” [New York Post]. “President-elect Donald Trump told The Post Wednesday that he and President Biden “both really enjoyed seeing each other” when they sat down for a historic post-election get-together in the Oval Office. ‘You know, it’s been a long, it’s been a long slog,’ the 78-year-old said during a phone interview as he left Washington. ‘It’s been a lot of work on both sides and he did a very good job with respect to campaigning and everything else. We really had a really good meeting.’ Trump said Biden was ‘very gracious.’ ‘We got to know each other again.’”

BFFs:

Biden seems happy.

Maybe people can stop wasting their energy defending him now. pic.twitter.com/HI7groP6CC

— leahmcelrath.bsky.social (@leahmcelrath) November 13, 2024

A lot for all that “our democracy” hoo-ha, then. Additionally too “fascism.” Pricey Lord, these folks simply activate a dime!

“Biden, Trump Die 2 Minutes Aside Holding Palms” [The Onion]. “‘Solely minutes earlier than their deaths, they requested that their hospital beds be pushed collectively—it’s like they knew what was coming,’ stated Marlene Kato, a nurse who confirmed that medical workers at Walter Reed Medical Heart, the place the 2 presidents spent their ultimate hours collectively, have been surprised when Biden died at 8:05 p.m. and Trump adopted at 8:07. ‘They have been rivals in life, however they got here along with love in demise. They have been each very weak, however turned their heads to face one another and smiled. Biden stated, ‘You have been the one one who ever acquired me,’ and Trump stated, ‘I do know.’ I began tearing up proper there after which. It was simply so stunning. Then they used their ultimate breaths to request a shared burial plot on the Trump Nationwide Golf Membership in Bedminster.’ At press time, a coroner’s report revealed that Trump had strangled Biden after which succumbed to a coronary heart assault two minutes later.”• Oh.

* * *

“Donald Trump Jokes He ‘Can’t Get Rid’ of Elon Musk Amid Rising Affect” [Newsweek]. “”Elon received’t go residence. I can’t do away with him—not less than till I don’t like him,” Trump joked, acknowledging Musk’s rising presence in his internal circle.” And: “Throughout his week-long keep at Mar-a-Lago, Musk has bonded with the president-elect’s household, posing for photographs and enjoying golf, whereas additionally becoming a member of calls with international leaders, together with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He’s additionally scheduled to fulfill Argentina’s President Javier Milei at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday. Though the president-elect has typically stated that Musk probably received’t tackle a full-time place because of his different commitments, Musk—who as soon as vowed to remain out of politics—seems to be having fun with his new position.”

* * *

“Trump’s choose for prime intel job has been accused of ‘traitorous’ parroting of Russian propaganda” [NBC]. • The spooks appear sad.

“Tulsi Gabbard’s Nomination Is a Nationwide-Safety Threat” [Tom Nichols, The Atlantic]. • As do By no means Trumper nationwide safety goons.

“The Curious Case of Tulsi Gabbard: Is She a Russian Asset or a Dupe?” [Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark]. “As a result of for a decade Gabbard has seemed and behaved like a Russian asset.” • An asset? With a handler? I’ll solely consider this if 51 intelligence officers inform me so. (Sorry to go all heuristic on this, I ought to be assessing all this on the deserves, however sheesh.)

* * *

“Gaetz resigns from Congress — probably skirting long-awaited Ethics report” [Politico]. “Dozens of GOP lawmakers indicated that management had advised them about Gaetz’s resignation earlier than Johnson made the announcement. Many have been excitedly spreading the information, glad to be rid of the architect of Kevin McCarthy’s speakership ouster. Gaetz didn’t attend the GOP’s hours-long assembly close to the Capitol on Wednesday, the place Republicans elected their management slate. Johnson stated Gaetz had resigned so abruptly as a result of he knew how lengthy it will take to fill the seat if he turns into lawyer common…. Different GOP Home colleagues consider his determination is definitely tied to an Ethics Committee report investigating a number of allegations together with that Gaetz engaged in intercourse with a minor, which they consider was poised to be launched in a matter of days. Gaetz has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and has sought to assault the panel probing numerous allegations in opposition to him. If Gaetz is not a member of the Home, the report probably received’t be formally launched, although it may leak. One Home Republican, granted anonymity to talk candidly, tied Gaetz’s resignation to making an attempt to ‘stymie the ethics investigation that’s popping out in a single week.’” • It appears to have been fairly successfully stymied already, however no matter.

“Trump Nominates ‘Khanservative’ Matt Gaetz as Lawyer Normal” [Matt Stoller, BIG]. Stoller adopted anti-trust in Congress carefully. Right here’s a telling anecdate about Gaetz:

At one level in the course of the markup, at 3am or so, [Democrat David Cicilline, actually an anti-monoply ally] allowed an modification that punched a loophole in one of many payments. The modification would have let large tech companies buy corporations for lower than $50 million in worth with out a lot scrutiny. It wasn’t a giant deal; everybody was exhausted and needed to only transfer alongside. However at that second, Gaetz chimed in and stated he opposed it. He didn’t win. However he was the one member in both celebration to say he needed no loopholes, regardless of how small, for large tech.

When the highlight is on, most individuals don’t need to seem craven. However when the highlight shouldn’t be on, when it’s 3 am and the one people who find themselves paying consideration are highly effective lobbyists from organized cash, nicely, that’s when somebody tells you what their priorities are. And in that case, Gaetz stated he’d battle for each inch, even when he would get no credit score, even when everybody was drained, and even when he was going to lose, and in shedding, upset a number of firms price a trillion {dollars} apiece.

The entire piece is price studying in full, provided that Gaetz appears sound on Lina Khan, protection reform, and surveillance (and really referred to as for Snowden to be pardoned). So no surprise highly effective forces need to take him down.

“Matt Gaetz as soon as confronted a intercourse trafficking investigation by the Justice Division he may now lead” [Associated Press]. “The federal intercourse trafficking investigation that started below Lawyer Normal Invoice Barr throughout Trump’s first time period targeted on allegations that Gaetz and onetime political ally Joel Greenberg paid underage women and escorts or supplied them items in alternate for intercourse. Greenberg, a fellow Republican who served because the tax collector in Florida’s Seminole County, admitted as a part of a plea take care of prosecutors in 2021 that he paid girls and an underage woman to have intercourse with him and different males. The lads weren’t recognized in court docket paperwork when he pleaded responsible. Greenberg was sentenced in late 2022 to 11 years in jail. Federal investigators scrutinized a visit that Gaetz took to the Bahamas with a gaggle of girls and a physician who donated to his marketing campaign, and whether or not the ladies have been paid or obtained items to have intercourse with the boys, in response to folks acquainted with the matter who weren’t allowed to publicly focus on the investigation. Prosecutors additionally investigated whether or not Gaetz and his associates tried to safe authorities jobs for a number of the girls, and scrutinized Gaetz’s connections to the medical marijuana sector, together with whether or not his associates sought to affect laws Gaetz sponsored, the folks have stated. Gaetz had remained below investigation by the Home Ethics Committee over allegations that he was a part of a scheme that led to the intercourse trafficking of a 17-year-old woman. The committee started its overview of Gaetz in April 2021, , and renewed its work shortly after Gaetz introduced that the Justice Division had ended a intercourse trafficking investigation. Over the summer season, the committee supplied an uncommon public replace into its long-running investigation, saying its overview now contains whether or not Gaetz engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, accepted improper items and sought to impede authorities investigations of his conduct. Gaetz has categorically denied all of the allegations earlier than the committee.” • Nicely, I suippose we will anticipate a leak shortly. (One cause I apply a hermeneutic of suspicion to intercourse scandals is that lengthy, way back, an Illinois Republican acquired taken down over intercourse membership allegations in a set of mysteriously launched divorce papers, and the Democrat went on to win. I targeted my aghastitude on the scandal, however the profitable Democrat was this dude named Barack Obama, who was simply one other elected on the time.)

2024 Publish Mortem

Deploy the Blame Cannons!

“The Democrats Dedicated Suicide This 12 months” [James Okay. Galbraith, Project Syndicate]. ” Trump’s final tally will be only slightly higher than his 2020 total of 74.2 million votes. For Harris, though, we will see a disastrous decline from the 81.2 million votes that Joe Biden received, and this despite the fact that the voting-eligible population has increased by four million. In other words, Trump gained almost no support in his four-year campaign for redemption. If all the voters were the same, one could even say that he merely got his 2020 supporters to vote for him again. In fact, about 13 million people (most of them eligible voters) have died, and about 17 million have become voter-eligible, implying that Trump replaced his losses about one-for-one, while a decline in turnout cost the Democrats nearly ten million votes. These numbers cast grave doubt on explanations of the result that focus on economic conditions, and still more on the impact of advertising and get-out-the-vote campaigns. The results also deflate analyses based on the ‘American voter.’… .” More: “After we have ruled out the implausible, at least three reasonable conjectures remain. The first concerns the conditions of voting. In 2020, owing to the pandemic, voting was more accessible than ever before…. In 2024, some – though not all – of these expedients no longer existed, after already declining in 2022. It is standard in America to use the structure of voting to help determine the outcome: long lines at the polls discourage turnout, especially among working people with limited time.” Yes, the distinctive competence of the modern political party. More: “A second plausible explanation concerns voter registration. Students and low-income minority citizens move more frequently and usually must re-register every time their address changes. It is highly probable that this burden falls more heavily on Democrats.” And now: “The third hypothesis turns on the long-standing divisions within the Democratic Party…. The Clintons and Obamas are currently the de facto heads of the centrist faction, and Biden and Harris were their appointees…. The Democratic leadership engineered this situation and must therefore desire it. Win or lose, it remains in control of a vast shadow apparatus: consultants, pollsters, lobbyists, fundraisers, key positions on Capitol Hill. Any concessions to new forces within the party would undermine this control, whereas losses to Republicans do not. The Democratic leadership would far rather lose an election or two – or even become a permanent minority party – than open the party to people it cannot control. The 2024 election was, therefore, a suicide. The Democratic leadership was, at best, indifferent to the erosion of voting access, negligent in retaining 2020’s new voters, and proactive in ensuring the abstention of what little remains of its ‘left’ wing. It tried to cover this up, as usual, with celebrity endorsements and identity politics. As usual, it did not work. But the party’s mandarins and their apparatchiks will be around next time to try again.” • I could quarrel with causality (“economic conditions” is surely a little slippery), but this conforms in almost every respect to my priors (except one should hardly leave the spooks, the press, and the NGOs out of the “vast shadow apparatus”). So I like it 🙂

“Trump’s Win Leaves Democrats Asking: Where Are Our Bro Whisperers?” [New York Times]. “[S]ome younger Democrats said a broader strategy shift was in order, especially in terms of how politicians approach nontraditional media. Celebrity appearances and paid endorsements from influencers come across as transactional and inauthentic, they said. ‘It’s last-second, ‘Let’s get Beyoncé onstage to say we support women,’ but that doesn’t move anyone who wasn’t already going to vote Democrat,’ said Ayem Kpenkaan, a liberal content creator who goes by @bocxtop on social media. As Democrats were casting about for explanations for Mr. Trump’s victory, posts by Mr. Kpenkaan, 25, blaming ‘alpha male podcasts’ for men’s rightward shift went viral. He suggested that Democrats needed liberal versions of media platforms that are culturally right-leaning but not inherently political — like Barstool Sports, the popular sports brand that has become so enmeshed in online culture that it has coined a phrase, Barstool conservatism. ‘We have to make entertaining, engaging content that men want to watch and care about,” Mr. Kpenkaan said. “Then, over time, you pepper in more progressive views.” • “Content creator” sounds something like a producer of “slop feedstock” to me, but what do I know?

* * *

“The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. The Abstract: “Split outcomes between presidential and Senate results saw a resurgence in 2024, as at least four Donald Trump-won states sent Democrats to the Senate. Republicans still took the majority in the Senate because while Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) performed notably better than Kamala Harris, they did not do so by enough to hold their seats. Across most key Senate races, Senate Democrats ran better than Harris in rural parts of their states but were comparatively weak in some suburban counties. In one of Harris’s best states, Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) stood out as Republicans’ top overperformer, although Harris’s 26-point margin in the state was too much for him to overcome.” • Handy map:

The UK, but yikes:

Nosocomial Covid in Wales

‘Number of inpatient Covid-19 cases in hospital in Wales’

On 10 November 2024, at least 67% of inpatient Covid cases in Wales were the result of hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection…

(PHW data) pic.twitter.com/HnGsHtf7hL

— Gwladwr (@gwladwr) November 13, 2024

“There’s a Higher Technique to Discuss About Fluoride, Vaccines and Uncooked Milk” [Emily Oster, New York Times]. “Think about three subjects of a lot public dialogue: measles vaccines, uncooked milk and water fluoridation. All three signify fault traces between what is alleged by public well being companies and by Mr. Kennedy and different skeptics. The place their messages differ is within the energy and complexity of the proof…. My suggestion is that when requested about these subjects, well being consultants present this degree of element. Merely saying that vaccines are good and uncooked milk is unhealthy misses specifics that individuals discover essential. Folks typically do their analysis, and in the event that they really feel the dangers of uncooked milk have been exaggerated, it may erode their belief. Now maybe that individual is extra prone to mistrust the vaccine messaging, too. With extra data, we offer room for folks to drink uncooked milk but additionally vaccinate their youngsters. Which is, principally, an affordable alternative. Offering context additionally helps folks make sense of recent data…. Being extra nuanced is not going to be simple for public well being companies. They should put extra belief of their viewers…. If well being consultants share a extra balanced message about uncooked milk, extra folks would possibly drink uncooked milk. And, sure, that does entail some elevated danger. I’m arguing that in alternate you might get increased measles vaccination. It’s not an ideal state of affairs, however it might imply that fewer folks get sick and die. Which, in any case, ought to be the last word aim.” • The issue right here is that Oster, an economist, has observe document:

This is a horrendous instance of COVID misinformation unfold by Emily Oster in 2020, which has been confirmed mistaken by analysis many occasions since. Please don’t hearken to any of her recommendation about public well being. pic.twitter.com/bAnP3rbXEv

— Dr. Fortunate Tran (@luckytran) November 14, 2024

Similar to all of the pro-Iraq pundits, nonetheless making financial institution, twenty years later…

HICPAC assembly immediately and tomorrow:

♒️Extra in🧵👆🏼

♒️#HICPAC Mtg THURS & FRI Nov 14-15❗️

♒️”CDC’s HICPAC: #COI & Course of Violations Alleged in @TheWHN Suppl Criticism 2 Inspector Normal”

♒️Impt fr @lambertstrether❗️👇🏼

🔗 https://t.co/wG4xpZ1XGH

♒️Pls share👇🏽#HCW #H5N1 @PeoplesCDC @Pan_End_It @C19LH_Advocacy https://t.co/cTZ3UTQJ02

— HealthCommunication (@Comm_in_Care) November 13, 2024

I apologize for not attending to this earlier; mentally, I’m nonetheless digging out from the election. Listed here are the drafts HICPAC has been working from:

HICPAC is lastly giving the general public a have a look at the drafts that they are going to be discussing and voting on tomorrow:
Isolation Workgroup – https://t.co/jqVqN8F6P6
Healthcare Personnel Wkgrp – https://t.co/kJ5EnqTFNM

— Deb Soc – #KeepMasksInHealthCare #StopTheSpread! (@dsoq) November 13, 2024

For the newest on HICPAC, see NC right here.

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Good news!

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* still popular. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Actually improved; it’s now one of the few charts to show the entire course of the pandemic to the present day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 4,000 from the previous week to 217,000 on the period ending November 9th, the least since May, and firmly below market expectations of an increase to 223,000. In turn, outstanding unemployment claims fell by 19,000 to 1,873,000 in the last week of October. The results extended the view that the US labor market remains at historically strong levels despite the aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve in the last quarters, adding leeway for the central bank to slow the pace of monetary loosening should inflation remain stubbornly high.”

Inflation: “United States Producer Prices Final Demand Less Foods and Energy YoY” [Trading Economics]. “The annual core producer inflation in the US which excludes prices for foods and energy, rose to 3.1% in October 2024, following an upwardly revised 2.9% in the prior month and slightly above market forecasts of 3%.”

Manufacturing: “Pink slips arrive for laid-off Boeing workers as company begins 10% cut” [Seattle Times]. “The cuts are not expected to hit members of the Machinists union, but they did affect members of the engineering union, SPEEA.” • Won’t they need engineers to design a new plane?

“Is the Love Song Dying?” [The Pudding]. Horridly mobile-friendly, but data-driven and worth the trouble. Here is one handy (interactive) chart:

“Jesse Sheidlower answers our questions about ‘The F-Word’” [Strong Language]. “Lexicographer Jesse Sheidlower has been researching and writing about f*ck for a f*cking long time: nearly three decades.” This caught my eye: “You cite the Internet Archive as a valuable resource this time around. Any specifics you can share? [SHEIDLOWER:] I can’t overstate the importance of the Internet Archive; it might not have been possible to do this edition without it. It holds an immense of amount of material about everything, so you don’t just get mainstream fiction (which is itself, of course, very useful), but all sorts of things you don’t normally think of. For example, high school and college yearbooks are an immensely valuable source for informal writing, but hardly anyone has used them for linguistic research before. I quote over a dozen yearbooks, all from the Internet Archive, in this edition, in many cases providing the earliest example we have: “f*ck ’em if they can’t take a joke,” from Baltimore in 1971; “f*ck you and the horse you rode in on” in Massachusetts in 1964; MFWIC ‘motherf*cker what’s in charge’ from the US Air Force Academy in 1963. This material just can’t be found anywhere else.” • Good thing the Internet Archive is not in any way vulnerable.

I didn’t choose this one intentionally, it simply got here throughout my feed. One thing in regards to the precise paint…

Healthcare

I can’t vouch for this, but it surely does look like one thing to be careful for:

Have any readers skilled this?

Our Famously Free Press

“The Onion Says It Has Purchased Infowars, Alex Jones’s Website, Out of Chapter” [New York Times]. “The Onion stated that the bid was sanctioned by the households of the victims of the mass capturing at Sandy Hook Elementary College, who in 2022 received a $1.4 billion defamation lawsuit in opposition to Mr. Jones and his firm, Free Speech Methods…. The publication plans to reintroduce Infowars in January as a parody of itself, mocking ‘bizarre web personalities’ like Mr. Jones who site visitors in misinformation and well being dietary supplements, Ben Collins, the chief government of The Onion’s mother or father firm, International Tetrahedron, stated in an interview.” • Ought to be difficult!

Information of the Wired

“The mind summons deep sleep for therapeutic from life-threatening damage” [Nature]. “Immune cells rush to the brain and promote deep sleep after a heart attack, according to a new study1 involving both mice and humans. This heavy slumber helps recovery by easing inflammation in the heart, the study found…. The implications of the study go beyond heart attack, says Rachel Rowe, a specialist in sleep and inflammation at the University of Colorado Boulder. ‘For any kind of injury, your body’s natural response would be to help you sleep so your body can heal,’ she says.”• Hmm. Makes you wonder about other forms of inflammation and sleep.