2:00PM Water Cooler 12/27/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Track of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Marin, California, United States. “This hen was languidly singing from an unseen location inside an oak tree uphill from the primary steep a part of the hearth highway instantly above the top of San Andreas Drive. Mimicked birds embrace Steller’s Jay (0:12), Northern Flicker (0:16), European Starling (0:31) and American Robin (0:44).” That is yesterday’s hen tune, which I unintentionally deleted in a post-prandial haze.

In Case You May Miss…

1. MAGA eviscerates the Tech Bros on immigration.
2. Mangione household investments in well being care (not fairly).
3. New Covid charts.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)

“Trial of man accused in Trump assassination try in Florida pushed again to September” [Associated Press]. “Ryan Routh’s trial will begin Sept. 8 instead of the previously scheduled Feb. 10, 2025 start date, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon said in an order released on Monday…. Routh’s attorneys had asked the judge to delay the trial until no earlier than next December, saying they needed more time to review the evidence against him and decide whether to mount an insanity defense. Routh owned 17 cellphones and numerous other electronic devices, and there are hundreds of hours of police body camera and surveillance videos that have been provided to the defense, Routh’s attorneys argued during a hearing two weeks ago in Fort Pierce, Florida. In her order, Cannon said she wanted to err on the side of providing more time given the seriousness of the allegations, but that starting the trial no earlier than December would be an excessive amount. A September trial date didn’t amount to an ‘unreasonable delay,’ she said…. The judge said that any insanity defense or any request related to Routh’s mental competency must be made by early February. Any visit to the scene of the assassination attempt must be made by the end of February.”

It was an absolutely wild day on the Twitter today, as MAGA and the Tech Bros tangled on immigration (and (an Ozempic-addled?) Musk destroyed his reputation as a free speech advocate in the soace of a few hours). I can’t cover it all, but here are some of the highlights (and more with orts ands scraps:

DOGE personality Vivek Ramaswamy fired the opening gun:

One quick reaction:

Apparently Americans now have to outcompete people in the entire world for jobs inside America

— frog (@i_m_cattle) December 26, 2024

And a second:

Apparently People now must outcompete folks in your entire world for jobs inside America

— frog (@i_m_cattle) December 26, 2024

So, so shut!

And a 3rd:

The place would America be with out Viveks coming in and defrauding shareholders of two billion {dollars} value of faux dementia medication pic.twitter.com/R8LjcK6qOh

— Spinachbrah 🥗 (@basedspinach) December 26, 2024

Hello Vivek [waves]!

And a fourth:

Elon Musk promised to pay $47 to swing state voters who signed his America PAC petition. They’re nonetheless ready for the fee. That is just the start. pic.twitter.com/5THpwIBmiF

— Ron Smith (@Ronxyz00) December 26, 2024

Hello Elon [waves]!

* * *

Noah Smith weighed in; I can’t bear to cite him, however embrace this display shot to point out the dimensions of the controversy, since that is solely a fraction of the responses, and Smith was under no circumstances the one combatant with a following:

* * *

“Elon Musk’s Critics Stripped of Verification Badge After Publicly Difficult Billionaire: ‘The Starting Levels of Censorship’ [Mediaite]. “A number of conservative critics of billionaire Trump surrogate Elon Musk had been stripped of their verification badges on X after publicly difficult Musk’s stance on immigration. Trump ally Laura Loomer, New York Younger Republican Membership president Gavin Wax, InfoWars host Owen Shroyer, and the pro-Trump ConservativePAC had been all stripped of their verification badges after criticizing Musk’s controversial remarks about American employees and overseas H-1B visa holders. ‘[Musk] has eliminated my blue test mark on X as a result of I dared to query his assist for H1B visas, the alternative of American tech employees by Indian immigrants, and I questioned his relationship with China,’ wrote Loomer in a put up on Musk’s social community X, previously generally known as Twitter.’” • Oopsie!

* * *

In the meantime, Trump in 2016:

pic.twitter.com/W9k5qwMmoO

— 🏛 Aristophanes 🏛 (@Aristos_Revenge) December 26, 2024

And Trump in 2024:

Trump staying silent because the H-1B visa disagreements trigger main rifts in MAGA world and wannabe MAGA world. pic.twitter.com/Ok9rE9O9WH

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) December 27, 2024

This exhibits, I might speculate, Trump sitting within the catbird seat, and really a lot conscious of it, as Musk and Vivek each take themselves out of the working with out Trump needing to elevate a finger: Mush for co-Presidency right this moment, Vivek for 2028 (and leaving intelligently silent Vance because the anointed, albeit very early favourite. Nice picture, too, I like the painterliness).

Lambert with some hasty feedback: The tech bros make a dishonest argument. They name for bringing in one of the best of one of the best from all around the world, to maintain American aggressive, and justify the H1B visa program on these grounds. The issue is that there’s a visa program for one of the best of one of the best, and it’s not the H1B; it’s the O-1. The H1B is getting used usher in hundreds of (essentially docile) codes, accountants, and so forth., with (it’s asserted) a median wage of ~$70K. In brief kind, H1B is for labor arbitrage:

Lmfao fucking liar, is 70k a 12 months in Austin high .1%? https://t.co/JuOczTXhNo pic.twitter.com/6UurWi46pC

— Alexander Augustine (@WurzelRoot) December 26, 2024

And extra on labor arbitrage:

The rationale high tech firms are hiring overseas employees over People is just because they don’t wish to pay larger wages. It’s so simple as that @VivekGRamaswamy.

Right here’s the proof: https://t.co/Urz40Ytszb pic.twitter.com/iI1xGwB0t9

— U.S. Tech Staff (@USTechWorkers) December 26, 2024

Fascinatintly, the MAGA sorts know these things chilly — by way of “lived expertise,” as we are saying, and are eviscerating the tech bros with pleasing effectivity. Jogs my memory of the blogosphere c. 2003 – 2006, with everyone leaping in. Very spectacular, and simply think about if the so-called left had been doing this to the Democrats. (Hilariously, a few of the Tech Bro defenders are utilizing Democrat loyalist strains like “Now will not be the time!”). I discover the entire controversy terrific, and simply think about! A severe argument about coverage going down in public! Merry Christmas.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“‘Didn’t Anticipate This Twist’: Mangione Household Enterprise In The Highlight After New Information Is Revealed” [Bored Panda]. Summarizing a TikTok video: “[Patriarch Nicholas Mangione] also founded Lorien Health Services, a nursing home at which his grandson, now behind bars, volunteered in 2014…. Taking to her TikTok page on Tuesday (December 10), social media content creator Tiffany Cianci further exposed where Mangione’s rumored wealth came from…. The Mangione family owns Lorien Health Services, a network of privately held nursing care facilities in Maryland, as well as the Turf Valley Golf Resort, used for events and networking with healthcare and pharmaceutical representatives, Cianci explained…. Public records revealed the facilities and resort are owned by the ten adult children of Nicholas and Mary Mangione, each holding a 10% stake, with Luigi Mangione’s father, Louis Mangione, identified as president of the development company for these properties…. American government ratings revealed low-quality conditions, with one facility receiving just two stars and 24 health demerits this year—well above the national average. Disturbingly, 83% of low-risk residents reportedly lose control of their bowels or bladder due to inadequate care, far exceeding the national average of 48%. Mangione, who volunteered at these facilities, allegedly expressed disdain for such systems in a manifesto found during his arrest.”

“Most Americans Blame Insurance Profits and Denials Alongside Killer in UHC CEO Death, Poll Finds” [Time]. “About 7 in 10 adults say that denials for health care coverage by insurance companies, or the profits made by health insurance companies, also bear at least “a moderate amount” of responsibility for Thompson’s death. Younger Americans are particularly likely to see the murder as the result of a confluence of forces rather than just one person’s action.” • Hmm.

* * *

“Will the jury let Luigi Mangione get away with murder?” [The Hill]. “Featured centrally in the criminal defense lawyer’s toolbox is a determination to find the most effective method of prying open the deepest thoughts of jurors, particularly the elusive nullifier — those jurors whose most intimate views motivate them to work to acquit a trial defendant regardless of the facts, even in the face of strong evidence of guilt. Of course, it is the prosecutor’s duty to exclude them. My heresy notwithstanding, it is indeed the defense lawyer’s righteous obligation to identify those nullifiers and try to seat them. ” And: “And prosecutors here are not without fault in providing would-be nullifiers with grist for the mill. They share some responsibility for the spike in public sentiment for Mangione by charging terrorism and raising the offense level to Murder 1 in one jurisdiction, threatening a possible death penalty in another jurisdiction, and participating in a food fight over who takes him to trial first. The piling on, the escorts with body armor and rifles, the perp walking and the overcharging intensify his folk-hero standing and add fuel to a potential nullification fire that is already burning bright.”

“Insanity Defense Is Luigi Mangione’s Only Option: Attorney” [Newsweek]. “Greg Germain, an attorney with over 30 years of experience, said that he doesn’t believe it will be a case of jury nullification, in which a jury acquits the accused out of sympathy for them or their cause. Germain, who teaches law at Syracuse University in New York, said that, given the weight of evidence, insanity is likely the only defense that will work. “It’s hard for me to imagine jury nullification. People may not like their health insurance companies, but I don’t think they will condone murdering insurance executives in the street,” [Germain] said. ‘The only possible defense I could imagine is insanity, which is very hard to establish in a planned case like this,’ he said.”

* * *

“Nordstrom, Maison Margiela Latest Brands Caught Up in Public’s Fascination With Luigi Mangione” [Women’s Wear Daily]. “Levi’s, Peak Design, Tommy Hilfiger and Monopoly were previously referenced in news stories and social media posts about the [Mangione] case, with Peak Design’s CEO Peter Dering facing social media backlash and threats after he informed The New York Times that he had contacted the New York Police Department’s tip line. Dering got involved with the case after several people had texted him that the shooter appeared to be wearing a Peak Design backpack in surveillance images. ‘What we see with Mangione is he has quickly become a folk hero and a fashion folk hero. It’s almost like the movie ‘The Joker,’ where people dressed like him,’ Diana Rickard, a criminal justice professor at the City University of New York, previously told WWD about Mangione’s online popularity.” • So if you want to serve on the jury, don’t wear the sweater….

“Letters to the Editor: Enough with the constant media coverage of Luigi Mangione” [Los Angeles Times]. “Enough of repeatedly seeing Mangione’s smugly defiant image on TV news and in newspaper photos. Same goes for any pre-trial publicity of his skewed ideological conceits. Let criminal proceedings take their course. Once Mangione has been tried, ample pertinent evidence will be available for the public to cast judgment on him.”

“Bets on CEO Murder Suspect’s Fate Test Rules on Event Contracts” [Bloomberg]. “Contracts offered by Kalshi Inc., a New York-based exchange, allow retail traders to put money on the outcome of nearly anything. Kalshi listed wagers on Dec. 11 related to Thompson’s death that included whether the suspect, Luigi Mangione, would be extradited to New York from Pennsylvania, whether he acted alone and whether he’ll be convicted or plead guilty. Two days later, trading suddenly halted, with Kalshi telling customers it made the decision ‘after receiving notice from our regulators,’ according to messages reviewed by Bloomberg News. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Kalshi declined to comment. The CFTC, which regulates Kalshi, bans futures trading linked to crimes including assassination, terrorism and war if the agency decides the so-called events contracts are against the public interest.”

Happy anniversary:

It has been five years. https://t.co/l8AEcpoBIi

— Adam Wong (@Engineer_Wong) December 27, 2024

Lambert right here: The chart I discover actually bizarre is New York. It’s probably not flat; what we see is a really gradual improve. I don’t know tips on how to give an account for that. Word that New York State as a complete is up:

I can’t give an account for this both. (I monitor New York Metropolis due to its standing as a global hub for air journey, and its historical past.)

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Seeing more red and more orange, but nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Slow and small but steady increase.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Continued upward trend since, well, Thanksgiving.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Leveling out.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Positivity is new, but variants have not yet been released.

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

There are no offical statistics of interest today.

Real Estate: “Boom in US retail real estate defies prediction of ecommerce apocalypse” [Financial Times]. “Vacancies at open-air shopping centres in the US have dropped to historically low levels, defying forecasts of a retail apocalypse caused by the rise of ecommerce. Landlords of complexes anchored by big-box chains, discount merchants and supermarkets have gained power to raise rents as leases expire. New construction has been stymied by higher interest rates and soaring building costs. Only 6.2 per cent of outdoor shopping centre space is currently available for rent, according to property data company CoStar, the lowest since it began tracking availability in 2006. The trend stands in contrast with enclosed shopping malls, where vacancies are rising.” • Hmm. Must be something about outdoor air….

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s space business could experience liftoff in 2025” [Quartz]. “The Motley Fool reports that there’s significant investor intrigue surrounding the company’s space program after its rough 2024…. The key to those efforts could be Boeing’s Vulcan rockets, which Amazon will be using for a number of space launches next year. Additionally, the company is anticipating an approval to run national security missions for the U.S. government. A brighter 2025 would mark a needed turnaround for Boeing. .” • Oh noes:

Manufacturing: “Boeing battles brain drain as engineers chase the allure of space” [Financial Times]. “Boeing is cutting jobs by 10 per cent across the company, and this month a second round of lay-offs brought the total of union-represented engineers leaving to 400. The blow to morale comes as engineers — freed from the ‘velvet handcuffs’ of long-term benefits — are contrasting Boeing’s turmoil with the allure of space companies staking out exciting goals. The average tenure of a Boeing engineer has fallen over the past decade from 16.4 years to 12.6 years, according to data from the union representing 12,000 Boeing engineers, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace. Tenure shortened in almost every age bracket, with employees in their 20s and 30s averaging fewer years, as well as those in their late 40s through 65. The risk of this ‘brain drain’, as analysts, recruiters and union officials have described it, is that it drags on current operations and could make it harder for Boeing to launch its next new plane. ‘All of this experience is gone,’ said Matt Kempf, SPEEA’s senior director for compensation and retirement. That raises concerns because ‘aerospace engineers aren’t made, they’re grown.’”

Tech: “Microsoft and OpenAI have a financial definition of AGI: Report” [TechCrunch]. “Microsoft and OpenAI have a very specific, internal definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) based on the startup’s profits, according to a new report from The Information. And by this definition, OpenAI is many years away from reaching it. The two companies reportedly signed an agreement last year stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. That’s far from the rigorous technical and philosophical definition of AGI many expect.” • So, the definition of AGI is how big the bezzle gets? Novel! Still, serious money. For those who understand the stakes–

Tech: “Parents of OpenAI Whistleblower Don’t Believe He Died By Suicide, Order Second Autopsy” [SFist]. “The parents have hired an attorney, Phil Kearney, and they have commissioned a second, independent autopsy.” • Hmm.

Shipping: A thread on ship-breaking with wonderful photos:

We did some protection on the Gadani shipbreaking catastrophe in Pakistan, again within the day.

Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 33 Concern (earlier shut: 35 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 27 at 1:02:05 PM ET.

Gallery

Catching up on my studying:

Vanessa Bell:

Fairfield Porter:

Twitter search comes up massive time:

And for the Alma-Tadema stans, of whom we’ve at the least one:

Meals

That is America too:

Guillotine Watch

“Mark Zuckerberg denies constructing 5K-square-foot ‘Doomsday bunker’ underneath $270M Hawaii compound, saying it’s ‘like a basement’” [New York Post]. “Mark Zuckerberg dismissed studies that he’s constructing a 5,000-square-foot ‘Doomsday bunker’ beneath a $270 million compound in Hawaii — insisting as a substitute that it’s only a ‘little shelter.’ The 40-year-old tech tycoon was requested throughout a Dec. 19 interview with Bloomberg about rumors that he’s developing an underground facility beneath his 1,400-acre dwelling on the island of Kauai, one of the crucial northern islands within the Northern Pacific archipelago. ‘No, I feel [you think??] that’s similar to a bit of shelter. It’s like a basement,’ Zuckerberg, the third wealthiest particular person on the planet behind Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, instructed Bloomberg’s Emily Chang. Mark Zuckerberg in a blue shirt discussing life and tech throughout an interview at his Lake Tahoe retreat. A number of rich people have been rumored to have constructed huge tunnels and underground networks in preparation for potential catastrophe, together with PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Microsoft co-founder Invoice Gates, Tesla CEO Musk and disgraced rapper Kanye ‘Ye’ West. Zuckerberg, who as of Thursday boasted a web value valued by Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $215 billion, has insisted that the intention of the ranch is to boost “world-class” cattle on beer and macadamia nuts in an effort to ‘create a few of the highest high quality beef on the planet.’” • Nuttier than a fruitcake.

Information of the Wired

“Batteries” [Hans Summers]. “All over the place on the internet, you can read about the classic school science project, sticking two dissimilar metals into a lemon and generating some small amount of power. Sometimes potatoes. You can even buy “kits” to do this in toystores. What seems to be generally lacking is any measurements on such batteries. How much power can they supply? And for how long? And what factors are involved to determine these parameters? Sure, you can power an LCD clock, until the lemon dries out. But they consume a miniscule current anyway. I found some websites which claimed that a single lemon will produce 0.5V and 1mA of current. They didn’t say how long for. Several lemons in series are supposedly enough to light an LED.” • Useful post-Jackpot?