By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Tune of the Day

California Quail week at Bare Capitalism continues.

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Biden Adminstration

“Pelosi optimistic for COVID-19, was at White Home with Biden” [Associated Press]. “Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi has examined optimistic for COVID-19, a day after showing unmasked at a White Home occasion with President Joe Biden. Pelosi acquired a optimistic check outcome for COVID-19 and is at present asymptomatic, her spokesman Drew Hammill stated Thursday in a tweet. He stated she had examined destructive earlier within the week.” • This after the cluster on the Gridiron Membership. Elites hate masks, modified coverage to take away masks necessities, didn’t put on masks, and now they’re all infecting one another. Karma in near-real time:

All unmasked, all smiling for the photograph op. Examples to us all.

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Beginning with positives:

“Scholar Mortgage Pause Is Prolonged By way of August 31, White Home Says” [Teen Vogue]. “The Biden administration is predicted to increase the scholar mortgage moratorium till August 31, in keeping with reporting by Bloomberg and The Hill. An official announcement is ready for Wednesday. This would be the fourth fee pause since President Biden took workplace lower than two years in the past, and the seventh pause for the reason that federal COVID aid invoice was first applied in 2020. As with earlier extensions, the rates of interest on loans are anticipated to stay at 0% throughout the pause.” • In 2020, below [gasps] President Trump.

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The Democrat machine appears to be throwing lots of cogs. Progressively, after which instantly:

“Jill Biden’s Secret Service element is infiltrated by two FAKE Homeland Safety brokers who showered safety personnel with items together with $40,000-a-year penthouse and $2,000 assault rifle” [Daily Mail]. “Arian Taherzadeh, 40, and Haider Ali, 36, have been taken into custody as greater than a dozen FBI brokers charged right into a luxurious residence constructing in Southeast Washington on Wednesday night. Pictures posted to social media Wednesday evening confirmed FBI crews shifting bins out of their luxurious residence and even bringing in an enormous field truck to the scene. Taherzadeh and Ali are accused of posing as members of a pretend Division of Homeland Safety taskforce investigating gang violence and the January 6 Capitol riots. The pair, whose nationalities haven’t been revealed, are stated to have pushed round in an official-looking SUV geared up with flashing lights. They’re stated to have efficiently ingratiated themselves with Secret Service brokers, who they equipped with rent-free luxurious flats, high-end electronics and policing tools. 4 members of the company – together with the primary woman’s bodyguard – have been positioned on depart, with their identities not revealed. In a single occasion, Taherzadeh allegedly supplied a member of First Woman Jill Biden’s safety element with a $2,000 assault rifle. He and Ali additionally reportedly equipped a USSS agent with a penthouse residence valued at greater than $40,000 a 12 months. It’s unclear what that they had hoped to achieve from the ruse, and prosecutors say the investigation is ongoing, at the same time as 4 members of the Secret Service – together with the one from the primary woman’s safety element – have been positioned on depart. Investigators have additionally not stated whether or not the pair ever efficiently managed to have direct contact with Mrs Biden, who’s essentially the most heavily-protected girl in america. Within the meantime, Taherzadeh and Ali are being detained and are scheduled to seem within the US District Courtroom in DC on Thursday.” • Oh-k-a-a-a-y…, I hope Dr. Biden was conserving an in depth watch on Joe’s meds, is all I can say.

“Right here’s a dozen instances Joe Biden performed a task in son Hunter’s enterprise dealings” [New York Post]. Merchandise 3: “Hunter Biden acknowledged in a 2019 New Yorker journal article that he and his dad as soon as mentioned Hunter’s job on the board of the Ukrainian vitality firm Burisma Holdings, which paid him as a lot as $83,333 a month when Joe Biden was vice chairman below President Barack ­Obama. ‘Dad stated, ‘I hope you already know what you’re doing,’ and I stated, ‘I do,’ ’ he recalled.” • So, the New York Submit and the Every day Mail personal the Hunter’s laptop computer story, and have the info, too. After which there’s James Biden.

Anne Applebaum and David Axelrod, collectively on the identical stage:

Applebaum will get utterly owned, and I’m certain doesn’t even realize it.

“Was Biden Ignored by Obama at White Home? What Movies Actually Present” [Newsweek]. “Nonetheless, the clip on the Fox Information present was lower brief moments earlier than Obama turns to Biden. Biden then launched Obama to a girl and the pair shake arms and exchanged pleasantries earlier than Biden, Harris and Obama transfer by means of the room to greet different attendees.” • That is apparently the exculpatory video:

I’m not persuaded, both by Biden’s demeanor or by the interactions. The interplay I see is Harris and Obama working the gang side-by-side, collectively, and Biden — hand on Obama’s shoulder — attempting to affix the twosome. That by no means occurs, and as this video exhibits, they by no means do be part of up, and all transfer off in several instructions.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Concrete materials advantages (1):

Concrete materials advantages (2):

Concrete materials advantages, albeit of a unique kind:

Republican Funhouse

“Texas Rejects 12% of Mail Ballots in First Vote Since Crackdown” [Bloomberg]. “In line with up to date information launched Wednesday by the secretary of state, 24,636 mail-in ballots weren’t counted, for an total charge of 12.4%. By comparability, lower than 1% of mail-in ballots have been rejected in your complete U.S. within the 2020 election, in keeping with figures from the U.S. Election Help Fee. In September, Republican Governor Greg Abbott signed a sweeping elections overhaul, including a brand new requirement that voters present their driver’s license quantity or the final 4 digits of their Social Safety quantity on the envelope used to return a poll so it may be matched with their voter file.”

2022

“Republican registrations surge in Pennsylvania in warning signal for Democrats” [Reuters]. “Republicans are registering previously Democratic voters at 4 instances the speed that Democrats are making the reverse conversion within the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning signal for Democrats as they attempt to hold management of the U.S. Congress. The Republican beneficial properties in Pennsylvania, residence to a important U.S. Senate race, observe a sample seen in different states that might have aggressive contests in November’s elections, as excessive ranges of disapproval with President Joe Biden’s dealing with of his job are serving to slender the long-held benefit held by Democrats in numbers of registered voters….. Whereas registered Democrats nonetheless outnumber registered Republicans by greater than half one million in Pennsylvania – 4 million Democrats to three.4 million Republicans as of March 28 – the long-held Democratic benefit continues to slender and is on tempo to be the smallest in a common election since 2005.”

“Treating Politics Just like the NCAA Event” [Charles Cook, Cook Political Report]. No brackets. Betting: “In line with the PredictIt betting odds, there may be an 84 p.c likelihood that Republicans will seize the Home in November, a 77 p.c likelihood that the GOP wins a Senate majority, and a 72 p.c likelihood that Republicans find yourself controlling each…. Clearly, nobody has a completely useful crystal ball, however the collective conclusions of rank-and-file bettors at present match most election specialists, reflecting the character of midterm elections, the growing nationalization of our elections, and turnout. Both a president’s fellow get together members vote in moderately excessive numbers or they don’t (normally it’s the latter). Both these within the opposition get together end up in robust numbers, or they don’t (they normally do). Both independents are favorably disposed in the direction of the get together of a sitting president or they aren’t (normally they aren’t)…. Politically talking, although, polls are fairly clear that voters keep in mind—and resent—the insistence by the president and his administration that any inflationary pressures could be each minimal and transitory. For presidents, difficulty contamination could be a drawback. That’s, as soon as voters get mad at you for one difficulty, it colours their evaluation of you on practically every little thing else.”

Our Famously Free Press

Effectively, a minimum of no person trusts Breitbart:

Clinton Legacy

“Hillary Clinton Receives $225,000 Talking Payment For Telling Grandson Bedtime Story” [The Onion]. “She even stayed afterward to signal a replica of the e-book and take any questions Jasper may need.”

#COVID19

For those who missed it, right here final week’s put up on my queasiiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we have now.

Case rely by United States areas:

Within the mixture, circumstances are down. Nonetheless, circumstances within the Northeast are up (strengthened by wastewater speedy riser, and now hospitalization information (albeit from a low baseline).

“America Is Staring Down Its First So What? Wave” [The Atlantic]. “If america has been driving a COVID-19 ’coaster for the previous two-plus years, New York and a flush of states within the Northeast have persistently been seated within the prepare’s entrance automobile. And proper now, in these elements of the nation, coronavirus circumstances are, as soon as once more, going up. The remainder of America could quickly observe, now that BA.2—the extra annoying, faster-spreading sister of the unique Omicron variant, BA.1—has overtaken its sibling to turn out to be the nation’s dominant model of SARS-CoV-2. Technologically and immunologically talking, Individuals needs to be effectively ready to duel a brand new iteration of SARS-CoV-2, with two years of vaccines, testing, remedy, masking, air flow, and distancing know-how in hand. Our immunity from BA.1 can also be comparatively contemporary, and the climate’s quickly warming. In idea, the nation may very well be poised to stem BA.2’s inbound tide, and make this variant’s cameo our least devastating thus far. However idea, at this level, appears unlikely to translate into apply. As nationwide concern for COVID withers, the nation’s capability to trace the coronavirus is on a determined downswing. Group check websites are closing, and even the keenness for at-home checks appears to be on a critical wane; despite the fact that Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer introduced a brand new deal on home pandemic funding, these patterns may stick. Testing and case reporting at the moment are so “abysmal” that we’re dropping sight of important transmission traits, says Jessica Malaty Rivera, a analysis fellow at Boston Kids’s Hospital. ‘It’s so unhealthy that I may by no means have a look at the info and make any knowledgeable alternative.’ Testing is how people, communities, and specialists keep on prime of the place the virus is and whom it’s affecting; it’s additionally one of many essential bases of the CDC’s new steering on when to masks up once more. With out it, the nation’s potential to forecast no matter wave would possibly come round subsequent is sure to be clouded. • Joe, Rochelle, Jeffrey, Tony: Good job. Jha had higher be very good on TV.

NOTE I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Group Stage” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (circumstances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor technique to assess private threat. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t wish to get. Even in case you are not hospitalized, you possibly can endure from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. For these causes, case counts — recognized to be underestimated, resulting from residence check kits — deserve to face alone as a quantity to be tracked, regardless of how a lot the political operatives in CDC management want to obfuscate it.

MWRA (Boston-area) wastewater detection:

Nonetheless going up, each within the mixture and within the North and South Techniques. Too quickly for a Fauci line? I’d give it every week.

The Massachusetts Water Sources Authority (MWRA) service space contains 43 municipalities in and round Boston, together with not solely a number of college programs however a number of massive universities. Since Boston is so very education-heavy, then, I believe it may very well be a very good main indicator for Covid unfold in faculties typically.

From CDC Group Profile Experiences (PDFs), “Speedy Riser” counties:

Occasionally I consider taking away this chart, after which there’s one other flare-up. Hey, Santa Barbara County in California! Hey, Arizona! I keep in mind utilizing the metaphor of flying coals in a forest hearth — many land, however sputter out; just a few catch, and the primary spreads. What I discover about this spherical of flare-up is that the “coals” are the dimensions of a number of counties, not, as beforehand, single ones. FWIW! (Keep in mind that these are speedy riser counties. A county that strikes from pink to inexperienced will not be covid-free; the case rely simply isnt, effectively, rising quickly.)

The earlier launch:

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission. That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:

Persevering with gradual enchancment because the map shifts from largely pink to largely yellow (assuming the numbers aren’t jiggered). Nonetheless, have a look at the Northeast, which stays stubbornly pink.

Hospitalization (CDC Group Profile):

Once more, I don’t just like the sudden effloresence of yellow and orange. I don’t care that the baseline is low. From the standpoint of our hospital-centric well being care system, inexperienced in every single place means the emergency is over (and to be honest, that is strengthened by case rely and wastewater). Nonetheless, group transmission remains to be pervasive, which signifies that lengthy Covid, plus persevering with vascular injury, are not over. (Be aware pattern, whether or not up or down, is marked by the arrow, at prime. Admissions are introduced within the graph, on the backside. So it’s doable to have an upward pattern, however from a really low baseline.)

A brand new method for hospitals to recreation the info:

IM Doc writes: “I might guess with Omicron about 60% of the sufferers have been on Dexamethasone – so no – not an sufficient proxy” for hospitalization.

Only a reminder:

As with every little thing else, as a result of america will not be a critical nation, our hospitalization information is unhealthy. Right here the baseilne is off:

Demise charge (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,010,537 1,009,390. We did it. Get away the Victory Gin. An unlucky upward blip. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. Even when the numbers are taking place, they’re nonetheless democidally excessive.

Covid circumstances in prime us journey locations (Statista):

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting new claims for unemployment advantages decreased by 5 thousand to 166 thousand within the week ended April 2nd, again to ranges not seen since 1968. Figures got here effectively under market expectations of 200K, in one other signal of a decent job market and strong labor demand. The Division of Labor revised the methodology used to seasonally regulate the nationwide preliminary claims and continued claims to replicate a change within the estimation of the fashions.”

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The Bezzle: “The Hottest NFT Market is Largely Customers Promoting to Themselves” [Bloomberg]. “A better have a look at the LooksRare platform that has rapidly turn out to be the main NFT market by buying and selling quantity exhibits that many of the exercise is definitely customers promoting tokens to themselves to assist earn rewards within the type of extra cash. The platform was launched in January by two nameless co-founders — who go by Zodd and Guts — as an alternative choice to market chief OpenSea throughout the peak of the NFT growth. The positioning had deliberate so as to add new options to lure NFT fans, in keeping with a weblog put up on the time. Nearly all of these initiatives have targeted on the inducement program constructed across the Appears to be like token awarded to energetic customers of the platform. About $18 billion of the buying and selling quantity on the platform, or about 95% of the overall exercise, might be attributed to what’s sometimes called wash gross sales, in keeping with information compiled by NFT tracker CryptoSlam. The transactions are seen as one of many many grey areas in crypto on the subject of regulation. On this case, the gross sales are carried out to win new tokens quite than to pump up nonfungible token costs to lure unsuspecting patrons. {The marketplace} advantages from the charges generated by every transaction.” • We simply stated it appears uncommon.

The Bezzle: “We may very well be spending an hour a day within the metaverse by 2026. However what is going to we be doing there?” [World Economic Forum]. Gartner propaganda: “The metaverse may have a ‘digital financial system’, together with digital currencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Gartner says. NFTs are distinctive digital tokens that can be utilized to purchase, personal and promote digital or bodily objects on-line, together with music, artwork and property. Gartner additionally predicts that employers will be capable of higher interact and collaborate with their employees by means of ‘immersive workspaces’ in digital workplaces. Companies gained’t must create infrastructure for this, as a result of will probably be supplied by the metaverse.” • I’ve not seen an instance of an NFT getting used to purchase a bodily object. Have I missed one thing? Additionally, each merchandise of digital art work I’ve seen within the NFT area has been ugly and silly, school undergraduate UV poster-level ugly and silly:

However maybe that’s simply me, the previous codger. Readers?

The Bezzle: I’m certain Schultz thinks this can get these darn youngsters again onside:

Will the Starbucks NFTs style burnt too?

The Bezzle: “Tesla-Backed Startup Made Low cost Energy a Debt Burden for the World’s Poorest” [Bloomberg]. “Since photo voltaic pay-as-you-go, or paygo, was launched virtually a decade in the past, it has been hailed as the reply to the elusive problem of bringing electrical energy to tons of of thousands and thousands of individuals at present off the grid in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It started within the spirit of the microcredit mannequin that Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus popularized within the Nineteen Eighties.” Uh oh. Extra: “As a result of photo voltaic paygo is a low-­margin, high-default enterprise, and traders and business lenders usually demand fast returns, com­panies find yourself on a funding treadmill. The previous staff say the photo voltaic startups are pressured to develop at charges that may be achieved solely by means of excessive costs, unreliable merchandise, deceptive gross sales pitches, and little or no due diligence. The consequence is “a social affect credit score lure,” says Daniel Waldron, a photo voltaic specialist who analyzed the trade for the Consultative Group to Help the Poor, a corporation of worldwide improvement businesses, and now works at affect funding firm Acumen…. In some locations half the loans ended up unpaid, and people who continued paying struggled. Throughout the pandemic, one research discovered, 43% of paygo clients needed to in the reduction of on meals consumption to maintain their ­service. Now a few of Zola and D.gentle’s rivals are pursuing an much more susceptible buyer base: ­refugees in camps in Rwanda, Uganda, and elsewhere.”

Tech: Thanks — and I by no means, ever thought I might say this — Elon:

One of many genuinely refreshing issues about Twitter is that administration and programmers hate their customers. I don’t know whether or not Elon will change that, or whether or not its a very good factor. Nonetheless, Twitter customers have been screaming for an Edit button for years. These dolts over at Fb found out how to try this. So why not?

Tech: Please cease:

Tech: “Japanese robotic can peel bananas cleanly, more often than not” [Reuters]. • Kill it with hearth anyhow.

Manufacturing: “Tesla to open Texas manufacturing facility important to progress ambitions” [Reuters]. “Tesla Inc. will on Thursday maintain an occasion to mark the opening of its $1.1 billion manufacturing facility in Texas, which can assist ramp up manufacturing of electrical autos and batteries important to its progress ambitions…. Mixed with a brand new Berlin manufacturing facility, the Austin manufacturing facility is predicted to double the corporate’s annual manufacturing capability to 2 million autos. Tesla stated it could additionally increase manufacturing at factories in California and Shanghai. Tesla has stated it expects 50% annual will increase in deliveries over a multiyear interval.”

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At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 47 Impartial (earlier shut: 48 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 51 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 7 at 1:08pm.

The Gallery

So right here we’re in the beginning of the petroleum period (and never guitars or café tables or nudes descending staircases, and so forth.):

I believe afterward Stuart Davis turns right into a type of American Matisse (within the cut-outs section).

Sports activities Desk

This really scans:

FIFA to The Hague:

Our Famously Free Press

“They have been careless individuals, Tom and Daisy- they smashed up issues and creatures after which retreated again into their cash or their huge carelessness or no matter it was that saved them collectively, and let different individuals clear up the mess that they had made”:

“They have been careless individuals, Tom and Daisy- they smashed up issues and creatures after which retreated again into their cash or their huge carelessness or no matter it was that saved them collectively, and let different individuals clear up the mess that they had made” (not a mistake):

Zeitgeist Watch

“The Herbalism Group Is at Struggle With Itself Over Abuse Allegations” [Vice]. Fairly a lead: “Lots of the tales in regards to the 76-year-old herbalist Susun Weed—optimistic and destructive, scary and tame—start like a fairy story, with a inexperienced new apprentice touring by means of the thick woods of upstate New York and arriving on the doorstep of a small home on Weed’s property, referred to as the Nettles Patch. What occurs subsequent—the screaming, the ritualistic killing of rabbits and goats, the extraordinary psychological stress —will not be actually below dispute. However what these tales imply—how finest to interpret the issues that occur on Weed’s land—is a topic that’s surging, plant-like, from below the floor and flowering as soon as once more into view.” Extra: “Herbalists, for quite a lot of superb causes, resist any sort of centralized governing physique, and level to a protracted historical past of mainstream establishments trying to suppress or solid doubt on the legitimacy of their subject. Lots of Weed’s supporters see the criticism of her as an assault on herbalism itself as a free and nonconformist area, an try to homogenize or regulate them in a method they assume will hurt the sphere as an entire.” • I appear to recall simliar points with the Zen “group.”

Class Warfare

Holy moley, have a look at the family earnings information:

“COVID-19 well being employees endure combat-type ethical trauma” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. n=2099. “A Duke College research exhibits that, amid COVID-19, US healthcare employees (HCWs) had comparable charges of potential ethical damage (PMI)—a sort of trauma-induced wound to the psyche—as navy fight veterans…. [L]ead writer Jason Nieuwsma, PhD, a Division of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Duke researcher, stated in a Duke Well being press launch. ‘Whereas ‘burnout’ is usually used to explain the results of ongoing stress within the office, ethical damage is used to explain the injury carried out to the conscience or identification of people that would possibly witness, trigger, or fail to stop acts that go towards their very own ethical requirements,’ he stated. ‘For instance, with well being care employees, this would possibly entail them making decisions or being a part of conditions that stray from their real dedication to therapeutic.’” • One would anticipate the identical to be occurring with “public well being” specialists at CDC, nevertheless it isn’t. One can solely marvel why.

Information of the Wired

“The Leak” (podcast) [The West Wing Thing]. • tackle Will Smith v. Chris Rock, if that’s nonetheless a factor.

Pater iocus:


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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. By way of Re Silc:

Re Silc can develop indoor crops. I can’t. I can’t even develop crops in pots, inside or exterior. Solely crops in soil.

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the not too long ago concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated.

For those who hate PayPal, you possibly can electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on find out how to ship a test. Thanks!

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