By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Fowl Tune of the Day

Warbler Week Two at Bare Capitalism. From Manitoba, Canada ion 1958 (!). Seven minutes of intermittent warbling, with path sounds and evening birds.

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“That they had discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Capitol Seizure

Biden Adminstration

I’m going to skip all of the liberal Democrat aghastitude on the Alito draft over-turning Roe, as a result of we’ve heard all of it earlier than, and current as a substitute such posts as I can discover on the authorized circumstances towards Alito; they’re fairly skinny on the bottom.

Biden checked with President Manchin on that filibuster factor:

“THOMAS E. DOBBS, STATE HEALTH OFFICER OF THE MISSISSIPPI DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, ET AL, PETITIONERS v. JACKSON WOMEN’S HEALTH ORGANIZATION, FT AL.” (PDF) [Supreme Court of the United States]. That is Alito’s draft. Appendix A is “accommodates statutes criminalizing abortion in any respect phases of being pregnant within the States present in 1868. The statutes seem in chronological order.” And so “Missouri (1825)” is first on the listing (and I’m unsure, frankly, that “Missouri (1825)” is the killer argument Alito appears to assume it’s). Here’s a critique of Appendix A’s listing:

The thread is lengthy, and does make me marvel if Appendix A is an instance of conservative “copy-pasta.”

“The Supreme Courtroom’s draft opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade, annotated” (not paywalled) [WaPo]. For instance, a intelligent tactic by Alito:

If anyone has a put up defending Roe’s drafting, please add in feedback; I discover Alito’s excoriation fairly convincing (which says nothing in regards to the results of his draft, if it turns into “the regulation of the land”).

“It’s unattainable to wall off reversing Roe from landmark marriage and contraception rulings” [CNN]. “Within the draft, Alito stated that what “sharply distinguishes” Roe, and the 1992 follow-up Casey v. Deliberate Parenthood, from these different circumstances is that abortion destroys ‘potential life.’ ‘Not one of the different selections cited by Roe and Casey, concerned the vital ethical query posed by abortion,’ he stated. ‘They don’t assist the correct to an abortion, and by the identical token, our conclusion that the Structure doesn’t confer such a proper doesn’t undermine them in any approach.’ However critics of the draft choice will take chilly consolation in Alito’s phrases making an attempt to wall off abortion from every thing else They consider that if Alito’s opinion is finally rendered, it would symbolize a gap salvo in a push to focus on different rights grounded in privateness and liberty. It’ll additionally destabilize the regulation by rendering the authorized doctrine of stare decisis — the notion that courts ought to comply with their precedents even when they disagree with them, to guard the cohesion of the regulation — a lifeless letter. And it’ll elevate new questions in regards to the politicization of the courtroom… authorized specialists are skeptical that the fallout received’t be swift. They level to a different a part of Alito’s draft opinion. He famous that the Biden administration had relied upon selections like Lawrence v. Texas (the correct to have interaction in personal, consensual sexual acts) and Obergefell v. Hodges (the correct to marry an individual of the identical intercourse) in defending Roe. ‘These makes an attempt to justify abortion by appeals to a broader proper to autonomy and to outline one’s ‘idea of existence’ show an excessive amount of,’ Alito wrote. He stated that such standards ‘at a excessive degree of generality’ might license basic ‘rights to illicit drug use, prostitution, and the like.’ ‘None of those rights has any declare to being ,’ he stated.” • To say that authorized reasoning has knock-on results is to not refute the reasoning. That stated, this “deeply rooted in historical past” catchphrase — What’s “deep”? What’s “rooted”? Who decides? — which Alito fondles as if it have been a rosary, doesn’t impress me a lot. Slavery, in spite of everything, was rooted in historical past. So was the concept that the State couldn’t set most working hours (Lochner). One would possibly, in reality, argue that in historical past, “the one fixed is change.” That is the foundation.

“Homosexual marriage, different rights in danger after U.S. Supreme Courtroom abortion transfer” [Reuters]. “Abortion is amongst plenty of basic rights that the courtroom over many a long time acknowledged at the very least partially as what are known as “substantive” due course of liberties, together with contraception in 1965, interracial marriage in 1967 and same-sex marriage in 2015. Although these rights aren’t explicitly talked about within the Structure, they’re linked to non-public privateness, autonomy, dignity and equality. Conservative critics of the substantive due course of precept have stated it improperly lets unelected justices make coverage decisions higher left to legislators. Alito reasoned within the draft that substantive due course of rights should be ‘deeply rooted’ in U.S. historical past and custom and important to the nation’s ‘scheme of ordered liberty.’ Abortion, he stated, shouldn’t be, and rejected arguments that it’s important for privateness and bodily autonomy causes.” • Roots develop downward, because the tree grows. Therefore, probably the most deeply rooted roots are the latest, not the oldest, as Alito would have it. Block that metaphor!

““Deeply rooted on this Nation’s historical past and custom” [Hogeland’s Bad History]. “For precedent [on “deeply rooted”], Alito cites Washington v. Glucksberg—that’s the supply of the fabric within the citation marks above. In that 1997 choice, the courtroom got here up with what Justice Kavanaugh has known as “the Glucksberg take a look at,” an idea that the authorized proper wing has adopted as the usual for figuring out which if any rights not enumerated within the Structure are protected and which aren’t. In 2018, the author Ian Millhiser identified in a ThinkProgress article that in his affirmation listening to, Kavanaugh asserted that ‘all roads result in the Glucksberg take a look at,; from which Milhiser deduced—accurately, we now know, if we didn’t earlier than—that Kavanaugh was desirous to overturn Roe v. Wade. Millhiser additionally famous that in a 2017 speech, Kavanaugh had already explicitly linked the Glucksberg take a look at to the concept that the Roe case had been wrongly determined. All of which Senator Collins both didn’t discover or care to note, or pretended to not discover, when she claimed she’d reject any nominee who would overturn it…. However wait. A precept so rooted within the traditions and conscience of our folks as to be ranked as basic? That’s a rule? I imply—ranked by whom? How? And the conscience of which of the folks? Not of the very essence of a scheme of ordered liberty? Who determined what’s of the ‘very essence’ of such a scheme? When?… Alito’s draft thus cites precedent that itself depends on selections denying federal protections for trial by jury and towards self-incrimination. Together with Kavanaugh’s and others’ elevating such stuff as the idea for a so-called hard-and-fast take a look at, all of this implies to me that the roots of the deep-rootedness run fairly deeply into an Anglophile nationwide fantasia wrapped in a wishful oratory framed within the passive voice.” • Nicely price a learn as Hogeland traces again the case regulation.

“No, Justices Did Not Commit Perjury in Their Affirmation Hearings When Requested About Roe” [Jonathan Turley]. “In current hearings, a few of us have criticized Democratic members for demanding assurances on how nominees would vote on explicit circumstances or points. Nevertheless, each Democratic and Republican nominees have largely caught to rote responses on Roe and different circumstances to refuse to make such commitments. As Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg famously insisted, there could be ‘no forecasts, no hints.’ The issue is that politicians typically show a sort of selective auditory consideration drawback: they hear what they need to hear. Certainly, affirmation hearings are extremely choreographed on each side. Every senator seeks to safe a thirty-second clip displaying that she or he secured assurances or trashed a nominee. For professional-choice senators like Sen. Collins, it’s important to have some reply that will assist a declare that, regardless of seemingly antagonistic judicial philosophical views, a nominee would unlikely overturn Roe v. Wade and Deliberate Parenthood v. Casey.” • I believe Turley is logic-chopping, right here. I don’t assume the problem is perjury, or what was stated on the hearings (“affirmation nonspeak’). Definitely, for Collins, the problem is that Kavanaugh seemed her within the eye in her workplace and lied to her face. I don’t know what the legalities of which can be. (I imply, is mendacity to a Senator like mendacity to the FBI? Throughout a job interview.) Structurally, the problem is credentialism-blinded liberal Democrats made the hearings all about “skilled {qualifications},” when they need to have hammered on ideology from the start. Bork ought to have been the begin of that, not the ending.

“Democratic Celebration Betrayal, Abortion, and the Supreme Courtroom” [Black Agenda Report]. The lead: “Democrats have been fooled into considering that solely the courts can defend abortion rights. In actual fact, laws might defend abortion completely, however their celebration has refused to do this. Now that SCOTUS management is misplaced due to their corruption and betrayals, they proceed to spin lies that bamboozle the celebration devoted.” • Yep. It does happen to me that working class ladies misplaced the correct to a authorized abortion years in the past. The voters the Democrats hope to activate, one would possibly speculate, are suburban ladies. If that’s true, it is going to be attention-grabbing to see how the Republican try and nationalize points with the faculties play out, since colleges are additionally a matter of nice concern to those ladies.

“What Now?” [Amy Walter, Cook Political Report]. “However, what a few blue state, like Virginia. Within the 2021 gubernatorial contest, Democrat Terry McAuliffe spent greater than $2 million on advertisements like this one accusing his GOP opponent, Glenn Youngkin of desirous to ban abortion and defund Deliberate Parenthood. Even so, that was lower than half the quantity that the McAuliffe marketing campaign on advertisements attempting to hyperlink Youngkin with Donald Trump. This means that the abortion difficulty, even in a state as blue as this one, wasn’t transferring the needle for the voters the McAuliffe marketing campaign was focusing on. Exit polls in that race discovered that Youngkin did higher among the many 54 % of Virginia voters who fall in the course of the spectrum on the problem of abortion. Youngkin took 37 % of the vote amongst those that need abortion to be “authorized generally,” whereas McAuliffe took simply 12 % of the vote amongst those that need abortion to be ‘unlawful generally.’ Backside Line: We’re within the very early phases of what may very well be the primary main change to abortion legal guidelines in 50 years. As such, we have to watch the above benchmarks like salience and enthusiasm in regards to the difficulty very intently. And, on condition that these battles will happen on the state degree, we’ll additionally have to get extra state by state information to make any projections on the affect it might have on particular person statewide races.”

2022

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“Trump flexes and the middle shrinks: 5 takeaways from a key main evening” [Politico]. “Trump in all probability has yet another probability to run for president, in 2024. However the 75-year-old former president is placing an imprint on the celebration within the midterms that would final for many years, no matter whether or not he runs once more. Vance, his endorsed candidate within the Ohio Senate race, is simply 37. Max Miller, a former Trump aide who received his Home main in Ohio in a landslide, is in his early 30s. In a northeast Ohio Home race, Trump-backed legal professional Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who’s 30, was operating forward in early returns. Rep. Ted Budd, who has a cushty lead in North Carolina’s Senate main, which will likely be held later this month, is 50. If Trump’s candidates hold profitable, it would all add as much as numerous Trump loyalty coursing by the celebration for years.” Additionally and curiously: “Of all of Mike Pence’s fastidiously plotted maneuvers forward of a doable 2024 presidential bid, it was his endorsement of a detailed good friend in a little-watched Indiana county prosecutor race that proved most pivotal in his yard. Within the GOP main for Hamilton County prosecutor, Pence backed challenger Greg Garrison, his handpicked successor on his outdated radio present “The Mike Pence Present.” Pence pulled out the entire stops for Garrison, who beat longtime incumbent D. Lee Buckingham Tuesday evening.” And: “There’s one space through which the activist wing of the Republican Celebration seems prone to hold struggling — dispatching incumbent governors.”

OH: “Vance Wins Republican Senate Main in Ohio After Nod From Trump” [New York Times]. “J.D. Vance, the best-selling writer whose “Hillbilly Elegy” about life in Appalachia illuminated a slice of the nation that felt left behind, decisively received the Ohio Senate main on Tuesday after a late endorsement by Donald J. Trump helped him surge previous his rivals in a crowded discipline. Casting himself as a fighter towards the nation’s elites, Mr. Vance ran as a Trump-style pugilist and outsider who railed towards the threats of medication, Democrats and unlawful immigration, whereas totally backpedaling from his previous criticisms of the previous president…. Mr. Vance had been trailing in most polls behind Josh Mandel, a former Ohio state treasurer who had additionally aggressively pursued Mr. Trump’s backing, till the previous president’s mid-April endorsement helped vault Mr. Vance forward…. Trump-style Republicans didn’t prevail within the different high contest on Tuesday. Gov. Mike DeWine of Ohio, a extra conventional Republican who has held places of work within the state for greater than 40 years, completed far forward of his a number of main rivals after a powerful right-wing problem by no means gained traction regardless of some conservative backlash to Mr. DeWine’s early and assertive response to the coronavirus pandemic…. Within the Senate race, Mr. Vance will now face Consultant Tim Ryan, a 48-year-old Democrat from the Youngstown space who has positioned himself as a champion of blue-collar values and has not aligned with a few of his celebration’s extra progressive positions.” • The press fell in love with “Hillbilly Elegy,” little doubt due to its emphasis on private threat evaluation duty. (If you wish to get an actual take a look at what’s occurring out within the biomass, take a look at Chris Arnade’s images, that are good and way more attention-grabbing than Vance, who in spite of everything grew as much as be a enterprise capitalist, and a great good friend of Peter Thiel, although not, as far as we all know, an precise blood bag.) The Trillbillies received’t assume a lot of Vance’s victory, I might enterprise to guess.

OH: “Home Incumbent Tops Progressive as Democrats Wrestle Over Focus” [Bloomberg]. “Consultant Shontel Brown simply turned again a problem from progressive activist Nina Turner in Tuesday’s Democratic main for a U.S. Home seat in Ohio that was seen as a part of the battle for affect between the celebration’s two wings. With many of the ballots counted within the Cleveland-based district, Brown had 66% of the vote to Turner’s 33%, in keeping with a tally compiled by the Related Press.” • Yikes. Sadly, I believe Turner wants to seek out one other line of labor.

PA: One other Fetterman/Lamb/Kenyatta debate, seemingly with few fireworks:

2024

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Our Famously Free Press

“Sen. Josh Hawley introduces invoice to dissolve Biden’s ‘unconstitutional’ DHS disinformation board” [FOX]. • Hawley’s invoice might, in fact, be performative (although Republicans do are inclined to get issues carried out). If Republicans ship on this, I’m gonna have to provide critical consideration to not giving Democrat candidates the deference I might usually give them. (I attempt to be cynical, or lifelike, sufficient, I actually do, however by no means, by no means would I’ve imagined {that a} shadowy mixture of Silicon Valley tech companies and Blob drones would attempt to deny writers the means to make a dwelling by exercising their First Modification rights. It’s astounding. And beneath a Democrat Administration, too. (The concept the dominant factions of the PMC, after 2016, gobsmacked by the lack of their champion to Trump, concurrently got here to class consciousness and declared “a state of exception” offers an account of such occasions.) Consortium Information had lower than $10,000 of their PayPal account when the ban hammer got here down. That’s the catering invoice for a half-day convention of weapons producers on Capitol Hill. Why the hysterical response to a tiny venue? “Blob Fragility”?

RussiaGate

“To Spy on a Trump Aide, the FBI Pursued a File Rumor the Press Shot Down as ‘Bullshit’” [RealClear Investigations]. “Although the FBI presumably had entry to higher sources than the newspaper, brokers did little to confirm the rumor that Trump overseas coverage adviser Carter Web page had secretly met with sanctioned Kremlin officers in Moscow. As an alternative, the bureau pounced on the file report the day it obtained it, instantly plugging the rumor into an software beneath the Overseas Intelligence Surveillance Act to wiretap Web page as a suspected Russian agent. The allegation, peddled to each the press and FBI in the summertime of 2016 by Fusion GPS, an opposition analysis agency employed by Hillary Clinton’s marketing campaign to dig up dust on Trump through the presidential race, proved to be the linchpin in profitable approval for the 2016 warrant, which was renewed 3 times in 2017 – although the FBI discovered there have been critical holes within the story and had didn’t independently corroborate it. The revelations of early media skepticism in regards to the Trump-Russia narrative earlier than journalists embraced it are included in a 62-page batch of emails between Fusion and distinguished Beltway reporters launched by Particular Counsel John Durham, who’s scouring the FBI’s investigation of the Trump marketing campaign for proof of abuse and prison wrongdoing. The paperwork recommend that some journalists, as eager as they have been to report dust on Trump, have been however extra cautious than FBI investigators about embracing rumour data served up by Clinton brokers. (The FBI declined remark.)”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Institutionalist’s Dilemma” [Alex Pareene]. “One of many extra consequential contradictions of the Democratic Celebration is that the overwhelming majority of its staffers, consultants, electeds, and media avatars, together with a considerable portion of its electoral base, are institutionalists. They consider, broadly, in The System. The System labored for them, and if The System’s outputs are dangerous, it’s as a result of we’d like extra of the correct type of folks to hitch or be elected to enter The System. However when the celebration does handle to win majorities, it is determined by assist from a considerable variety of anti-system folks. Barack Obama defeated the Clintons with this sacred information, earlier than he began studying David Brooks. Institutionalists, in my expertise, have hassle reaching an anti-system individual, as a result of they assume being towards The System is an inherently adolescent and foolish mindset. However believing in issues like “the integrity of the Supreme Courtroom” has confirmed to be, I believe, a lot sillier, and far more infantile…. I believe some folks within the White Home have some sick hope that the tip of Roe will impress the midterm citizens. One thing like that will certainly occur. But when they want to perceive why the president has been bleeding youth assist for the final 12 months they need to attempt to think about these younger folks (and “younger”, at this level, has expanded to love 45) not because the annoying and hyper-engaged freaks they see on Twitter each day, however as ones they don’t see wherever, as a result of, having been urged to pay livid consideration by folks within the celebration, they found that these folks had completely no lifelike plans to beat entrenched, systemic obstacles to progress. Possibly a few of these voters went again to brunch. I believe a lot of them went again to work brunch.”

#COVID19

“Carnival Cruise Ship passengers say COVID overwhelmed ship” [Associated Press]. “Passengers on a Carnival Cruise Ship that docked Tuesday in Seattle say greater than 100 folks aboard the ship examined optimistic for COVID-19 and the ship was overwhelmed. A number of folks say they’re in quarantine at Seattle-area accommodations after testing optimistic or being uncovered to somebody with COVID-19. Carnival Cruise Line wouldn’t verify how many individuals examined optimistic, however stated there have been plenty of optimistic circumstances, KING5 reported. Darren Sieferston, a passenger on the cruise from Miami to Seattle, is in quarantine after testing optimistic. He stated the crew’s response was chaotic. ‘They didn’t have sufficient workers to deal with the emergency that was occurring, interval,’ stated Sieferston. ‘They have been overwhelmed they usually didn’t have a backup course in the right way to deal with about 200 folks affected with COVID. All of us suffered.’ Passengers inform KING 5 they waited hours for meals, weren’t correctly remoted and couldn’t get ahold of medical workers.” • Sure, that is what “dwelling with Covid” means. What’s the problem right here? Petri dishes gotta Petri!

As a result of “Covid is over” (1):

The account is BU’s Chair of the Division of Environmental Well being.

WHCA superspreading occasion (1):

WHCA superspreading occasion (2):

WHCA superspreading occasion (3):

(By way of KHN.)

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Lambert right here: I’m however a humble tape-watcher, however if some trusting, non-realist soul tells you that “Covid is over,” you’ll be able to inform them that circumstances are up, transmission is up, take a look at positivity is up, hospitalization is up, speedy riser counties are up, and wastewater is up, too. And that is all from information designed to assist the narrative that “Covid is over,” and gamed inside an inch of its life. So, if indicators like which can be flashing pink, take into account what the actual sign should be like. (Notice additionally that is all with BA.2 solely, and with what the institution considers an “immune wall” comprised of vaccination and prior an infection. Since semper aliquid novi Africam adferre, and we’ve let ‘er rip on the airports…. Nicely, I simply hope we get fortunate with BA.4 and BA.5. “God has a particular windfall for fools, drunkards, and the US of America.” –Otto von Bismarck.

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In case you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) take into account most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we now have.

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Case rely by United States areas:

Seems to be just like the prepare is rolling, now. Bear in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out. Additionally bear in mind, it’s 100% sure the circumstances numbers are considerably understated. They’ve at all times been gamed, however it’s worse than earlier than. One supply stated they although circumstances may be undercounted by an element of six. Gottlieb thinks we solely choose up one in seven or eight. The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. The Democrat-blue “Biden Line” exhibits what the case rely could be if it have been 57,000 * 6 = 342,000, i.e. not gamed. (I modified the Biden Line from dotted to stable as a result of the dotted line was too onerous to attract correctly in my crude instrument.)

Listed here are the circumstances for the final 4 weeks:

Price noting that circumstances have practically doubled in 4 weeks.

“Newer, fitter descendants of Omicron variant start to drive their very own coronavirus waves” [CNN]. “ [crippled] .” To not preen [lambert preens] however NC readers already know this. Extra: “Circumstances are trending up in most states and have elevated by greater than 50% in contrast with the earlier week in Washington, Mississippi, Georgia, Maine, Hawaii, South Dakota, Nevada and Montana. In New York, greater than 1 / 4 of the state’s inhabitants is in a county with a ‘excessive’ Covid-19 neighborhood degree, the place the US Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention recommends indoor masking. Common every day hospitalizations are up about 10% since final week, in keeping with information collected by the US Division of Well being and Human Providers. The perpetrator this time seems to be a by-product of Omicron’s BA.2 subvariant known as BA.2.12.1, which was first flagged by New York state well being officers in April.” • Er, no. The “perpetrator” is a public well being institution that not solely failed to guard the general public, however actively labored to hurt them (and that institutions masters and house owners).

NOTE I shall most actually not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it.

From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker:

I’m leaving the corporate logo on as a slap to the goons at CDC.

Both North and South services have turned up.

The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) service area includes 43 municipalities in and around Boston, including not only multiple school systems but several large universities. Since Boston is so very education-heavy, then, I think it could be a good leading indicator for Covid spread in schools generally.

From Biobot Analytics:

Northeast unflattened, and — hat tip to readers for pointing to this — it looks like past aggregation was adjusted up.

Cases lag wastewater data.

From CDC Community Profile Reports (PDFs), “Rapid Riser” counties:

California slightly worse. Oregon worse. (Remember that these are rapid riser counties. A county that moves from red to green is not covid-free; the case count just isnt, well, rising rapidly.) It would be nice if the falling wastewater measures in California presaged a drop in cases. (OTOH, the Biobot data is only as good as the non-representative sample it uses, so…).

Well spotted by alert reader Lou Anton:

Rapid Riser Counties:

As the “COVID weather pattern” moves NE to Midwest (and maybe West to SW in the future?), I can see the big metropolitan areas and college towns are getting hit:

Illinois: NE Cluster is Chicagoland, central Illinois is college towns (University of Illinois, Illinois State, Illinois Wesleyan), SW is the Metro East of St. Louis.

Wisco: Milwaukee, Madison, Green Bay

Indiana: Gary, South Bend, West Lafayette, Indianapolis

Michigan: Detroit, Ann Arbor, Grand Rapids, Battle Creek

Ohio: Youngstown and Akron, Cincinnati meeting soon, meet you in the middle Columbus.

Let. ‘er. rip.

Confirming: The one red county in Kansas is Sedgwick, home of Wichita State. But don’t worry. All those kids will soon by traveling home for the summer! Oh, wait…

The previous release:

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:

The Northeast stays stubbornly and solidly pink. Now California is pink as properly. The Higher Midwest is transferring that approach, too. (The Unorganized Territories in Maine are again to pink, good job.)

Hospitalization (CDC Group Profile):

Hospitalization is most undoubtedly up in lots of locations. (Notice development, whether or not up or down, is marked by the arrow, at high. Admissions are introduced within the graph, on the backside. So it’s doable to have an upward development, however from a really low baseline.)

Dying charge (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,021,581 1,021,089. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. A blip upward, however each earlier blip has been adopted by continued decline, at the very least within the current previous.

Covid circumstances in high us journey locations (Statista):

Nonetheless a bumpy journey…. (Notice the standard of those numbers varies wildly. For instance, the UK is reducing again on testing information.

Stats Watch

“United States ISM Non Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Providers PMI for the US fell to 57.1 in April of 2022 from 58.3 in March and beneath forecasts of 58.5, largely as a result of restricted labor pool which brought about employment to fall (49.5 vs 54) and the slowing of latest orders progress (54.6 vs 60.1).”

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Transport: “Maersk Exits Russian Property Whereas Navigating China Congestion” [Bloomberg]. ” [Russia] accounted for two% of its enterprise. “We’re writing down all of the property that we now have in Russia to zero mainly’ and can attempt to divest these port and warehousing property in coming quarters, [CEO Soren Skou] says. ‘It’ll take a short time, I believe, however there are energetic talks.’… ‘We’re seeing the affect’ associated to an absence of labor to maneuver items, he says. ‘The ports proper now are open for enterprise, however it solely actually works if the landside can also be.’ Maersk is ‘seeing a adverse affect on our volumes out of China proper now from Covid-19 lockdowns — not as a lot as you could anticipate, however we’re actually seeing an affect.’”

Tech: “Black Twitter Is Not a Place. It’s a Apply.” [Tressie McMillem Cottom, New York Times]. “On a typical day final week, my iPhone was logged into Twitter for over 5 hours.” That’s all? Extra: “Twitter is a small commons, not generally held. It’s nowhere close to the most important or most worthwhile social networking website, however it’s loud. It’s a kaffeeklatsch for educated, middle-class cultural staff who type of hate their jobs. Younger folks assume we’re outdated for utilizing Twitter. Regular folks assume we’re unusual.” I disagree on this. Twitter has loads of “regular” verticals; aerosol science being one such. Extra: “If you’re a billionaire who needs to purchase Twitter, you in all probability need to purchase the Twitter that adjustments conversations and innovates tradition. However the Twitter that Elon Musk is shopping for shouldn’t be assured to be that Twitter. Twitter’s significance shouldn’t be about income or promoting platforms or new options. It’s about communities that create concepts. The true Twitter lives within the practices of people that can migrate at any time. Consumer migration and social fragmentation are the actual current menace to Twitter’s cultural dominance.” • That is properly price a learn, together with the origin of Black Twitter in Reside Journal (!),

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As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 34 Concern (earlier shut: 32 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 29 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Might 4 at 1:36 PM EDT.

The Gallery

Certainly:

Class Warfare

See the KHN chart beneath #COVID19.

Information of the Wired

“What Birds Actually Hear for in Birdsong (It’s Not What You Assume)” [Scientific American]. “when researchers analyze birdsong, we normally break it down into smaller models, termed notes or syllables. We then group the syllables into sequences known as phrases or motifs which have attribute rhythms and tempos. On this approach, we are able to measure doubtlessly necessary facets of tune, such because the variety of syllable varieties in a chook’s repertoire or the patterns through which phrases are organized. These descriptions additionally parallel the methods we mark the relations amongst phrases in human syntax or amongst notes in musical compositions. However what do the birds take into consideration all these options? How does birdsong sound to them? Latest analysis that my colleagues and I’ve carried out, together with work from a rising variety of different scientists all over the world, has revealed that birdsong sequences don’t sound to birds like they do to us. Furthermore, birds seem to pay attention most intently to not the melodies that catch our ears however fairly to advantageous acoustic particulars within the chips and twangs of their songs that lie past the vary of human notion.”

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Marku52:

Marku52 writes: “The adequately named Redbud, pursued by Sasquatch.”

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NOTE ON PAYPAL: As some readers could know, PayPal whacked Consortium Information’s account, for no justification that I can see. It’s to be hoped that Consortium Information has its account restored, and that NC doesn’t come beneath the identical ban hammer. Within the meantime, till I/we are able to give you an alternate, I have to proceed to depend on PayPal (and rely I do). I will likely be cleansing out the account every day, and PayPal does give a heads-up, so your threat is minimal. Please keep it up as earlier than, or, for those who really feel it’s essential to, write me and I’ll ship you instructions for sending a examine. Please put “PayPal” within the topic line. Thanks on your assist! It’s a lot appreciated, and helps me with tasks. –lambert

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the lately concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on the right way to ship a examine. Thanks!

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Lambert Strether

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