By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Track of the Day

White-throated Sparrow (hat tip, Randy). New York, United States. And entire refrain of different birds! You probably have a suggestion for a sparrow species, please go away it in feedback. I’m shocked at how completely different their calls are.

“Sparrow ID Guides from Macaulay Library and Chicken Academy” [The Cornell Lab of Ornithology]. Free downloads. “Sparrows are a problem to birders of all ability ranges as a result of they’re typically skulky and arduous to see. At first they appear like boring brown birds, however while you get a very good look, they present stunning and complicated patterns on their feathers. As a result of many species are arduous to see, they’re wanted by avid listers and people who recognize the fantastic thing about birds. Whether or not you’re at dwelling or out within the subject, these useful four-sheet sparrow reference guides have full-color pictures of japanese, central, western and widespread sparrows.”

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“That they had discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Biden Adminstration

“In snub to Biden, Mexico’s president gained’t attend US-hosted Summit of the Americas” [USA Today]. “Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador introduced Monday that he’s skipping this week’s Ninth Summit of the Americas, a blow to President Joe Biden as he tries to unite the area to deal with migration. ‘There can’t be a summit if all international locations should not invited,’ López Obrador mentioned at a press convention Monday after america refused to ask Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela to the summit. He mentioned Mexico’s overseas affairs secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, will attend the summit as a substitute. López Obrador mentioned he’ll meet with Biden in July. López Obrador has been threatening to boycott the summit if america didn’t invite each nation within the area, together with the autocratic leaders of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. The Biden administration mentioned they don’t need to invite international locations that haven’t upheld democratic ideas.” • I’m so bored with us moralizing about democracy (or “our democracy”). The A.A. slogan applies: “Clear your personal facet of the road first.”

“Authorized claims make clear founder of religion group tied to Amy Coney Barrett” [Guardian]. “The founding father of the Individuals of Reward, a secretive charismatic Christian group that counts the supreme courtroom justice Amy Coney Barrett as a member, was described in a sworn affidavit filed within the Nineties as exerting virtually complete management over one of many group’s feminine members, together with making all selections about her funds and relationship relationships. The courtroom paperwork additionally described alleged cases of a sexualized environment within the dwelling of the founder, Kevin Ranaghan, and his spouse, Dorothy Ranaghan…. Barrett, 50, lived with Dorothy and Kevin Ranaghan of their nine-bedroom South Bend, Indiana, dwelling whereas she attended legislation college, in line with public information… There is no such thing as a indication that Amy Coney Barrett lived in the home on the time when the Carnick youngsters had been visiting or witnessed any of the alleged conduct described within the courtroom paperwork…. Cynthia Carnick [the complainant] said within the [affidavit] paperwork that she had witnessed Dorothy Ranaghan tie the legs and arms of two of the Ranaghans’ daughters – who had been three and 5 on the time the incidents had been allegedly witnessed – to their crib with a necktie. She additionally mentioned that the Ranaghans allegedly practiced ‘sexual shows’ in entrance of their youngsters and different adults, resembling Dorothy Ranaghan mendacity together with her garments on and ‘rocking’ on high of Kevin Ranaghan of their TV room. Cynthia Carnick – who not makes use of Carnick as her final title – declined to remark however mentioned that she stood by the assertion she made on the time.” • Effectively, now we all know!

2022

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“Even in a Nice Yr, Republicans’ Winnable Seats Are Restricted” [Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report]. “Simply as it’s uncommon for rivers to reverse their circulation, within the final six months earlier than a midterm election the clear course of that marketing campaign virtually by no means reverses…. With inflation working at almost a 40-year excessive and fears of a recession rising, that is definitely a flamable state of affairs for any celebration in energy. A Quinnipiac College nationwide ballot earlier this month indicated that 85 % of People anticipate a recession within the subsequent 12 months. This column has beforehand mentioned “difficulty contamination”—that’s, when voters are mad at a president on one difficulty, it colours their view of that president’s efficiency on different points as nicely. The general public’s reminiscence of Biden and his administration insisting that there wouldn’t be an inflation downside will not be hazy in in the slightest degree. It’s akin to Trump’s dismissiveness concerning the coronavirus. It’s arduous for another difficulty to supply any buoyancy when one huge difficulty is pulling a president down.”

“Home GOP incumbents battling major challengers working to their proper” [The Hill]. “A number of Home Republicans with major elections on Tuesday face challengers working to the incumbents’ political proper. These challengers have tried to tie themselves to the insurance policies and concepts of former President Trump. The consequence, in some races, are battles on the airwaves with incumbents shelling out to mount defenses by way of advertisements. Incumbents in these races have a bonus in polling — when it’s obtainable — and in fundraising.” • We’ll see!

CA: “Six races to observe within the California major” [The Hill]. District lawyer recall election in San Francisco (Chesa Boudin), Los Angeles mayor’s election (Karen Bass, Rick Caruso), Los Angeles County sheriff’s election (Alex Villanueva), CA-27 (Garcia (R) by way of Smith (D)), CA-40 (Kim v. Paths), CA-49 (Levin v. Republican free-for-all)

PA: “Fetterman airs first basic election advert on Fox” [Politico]. “The industrial, which was shared solely with POLITICO, portrays Fetterman as a political outsider who has pushed for insurance policies that profit the working class. Braxton White, an Military veteran and native college board member, says within the spot that for years ‘Washington, D.C. attacked cities like’ Braddock — a struggling metal city in southwestern Pennsylvania the place Fetterman beforehand served as mayor — by writing ‘dangerous offers that despatched away our jobs’ and approving ‘the medicine that kill our children.’ And he’s not mistaken. Extra: “The advert then attracts a distinction in Fetterman, saying that ‘for 20 years, he’s lived in a spot like this, constructing, pushing, preventing.’ It highlights his help for a $15 minimal wage, revitalizing the manufacturing business, and ‘good American jobs.’ The 30-second spot, which begins airing Tuesday, will run on Fox Information within the Pittsburgh, Scranton and Johnstown media markets. It’s going to additionally air on broadcast tv in Johnstown.” • Fox, eh? Proper out of the field? Fetterman appears to imagine that the institution Democrats “haven’t any place to go.” About time.

PA: “Fetterman’s spouse says Democratic Senate candidate could also be away from marketing campaign path till July as he recovers from a stroke” [CNN]. “‘I feel he deserves a month break to come back again as robust as ever,’ Giselle Fetterman mentioned in an interview with CNN. ‘That is going to be a tricky race and a extremely vital race. I need him to be absolutely prepared for it.’ Requested if John Fetterman, who serves as Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, would return to campaigning by July in one of many nation’s marquee Senate contests, she replied: ‘Perhaps. I feel so. That’s my hope.’ And requested whether or not she might envision a state of affairs the place he wouldn’t be capable of return to the marketing campaign in one of many nation’s most intently watched contests, through which he faces Republican nominee Mehmet Oz, she shortly mentioned no.

‘I don’t see that, however extra importantly, his medical doctors don’t see that,’ she mentioned. ‘They’re all assured he’ll make a full restoration.’ She additionally mentioned the marketing campaign was not against extra data being launched by the group of medical doctors in Lancaster who handled her husband for the stroke, however mentioned it’s the coverage of the Lancaster Normal Hospital to not speak about affected person care. ‘We now have requested, however that’s not the protocol of the hospital,’ she mentioned. ‘It’s lower than us, we’ve requested. That’s as much as their insurance policies.’” • Hmm. Effectively, as I’ve mentioned, I’d desire an unrehabilitated stroke sufferer to any Institution Democrat, so I retain my place of non-aghastitude. I additionally must assume that Fetterman is aware of his voters; he must, having criss-crossed the state.

2024

“Trump on the brink?” [NBC]. “Former President Donald Trump is bored at Mar-a-Lago and anxious to get again within the political area — as a candidate, not a kingmaker — in line with his advisers, who’re divided over whether or not he ought to launch a 3rd bid for the presidency as early as this summer season. Whereas many Trump confidants imagine he ought to wait till after November’s midterm elections — and warning that he has not but made a last choice about working — some say he might transfer extra shortly to harness supporters and deny gasoline to the busload of GOP hopefuls in his rearview mirror…. Whereas he casts an extended shadow over his celebration than that of any former president in trendy occasions, the footsteps of 2024 Republican hopefuls are rising louder. A number of of them have visited early major states, endorsed candidates within the midterms or delivered high-profile speeches designed to raise their standing within the celebration. That pack consists of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Sens. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Ted Cruz, R-Texas.” • 1/6 insanity apart, who on that record would have the stones to do something like Operation Warp Velocity?

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, actually, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“The Institutionalist” [Rebecca Traister, New York Magazine]. The deck: “Dianne Feinstein fought for gun management, civil rights, and abortion entry for half a century. The place did all of it go mistaken?” And, taking a look at that record, it did. This can be a actually good profile of Feinstein, who actually does belong to a different place and time. FInal paragraph: “There’s a nice story in Roberts’s biography about how when Feinstein was on the Board of Supervisors, she obtained phrase that the headmistress of her old-fashioned, Sacred Coronary heart, had been arrested protesting on behalf of farmworkers with Cesar Chavez. That headmistress, Sister Mary Mardel, instructed Roberts about how her former pupil had referred to as the jail to talk to her. ‘Sister, what are you doing in jail?’ Feinstein had requested her in alarm. ‘What about all of the white gloves?’” • Kinda the proper query for Democrats typically.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I’m however a humble tape-watcher, however if some trusting, non-realist soul tells you that “Covid is over,” you possibly can inform them that instances are up, transmission is up, check positivity is up, wastewater detection is up, and hospitalization is elevated in lots of states. And that is all from knowledge designed to help the narrative that “Covid is over,” and gamed inside an inch of its life. So, if alerts like which might be flashing crimson, take into account what the true sign should be like. (Be aware additionally that is all with BA.2 solely, and with what the institution considers an “immune wall” comprised of vaccination and prior an infection. Since semper aliquid novi Africam adferre, and we’ve let ‘er rip on the airports…. Effectively, I simply hope we get fortunate with BA.4 and BA.5. But it surely’s beginning to appear to be we gained’t.

* * *

• A DIY challenge, helpful for wildfires, too:

• Extra on Lengthy Covid:

And:

So the self-reported figures are, if something, low?

• And extra on neurological points:

I assume the Yankee candles proxy has a competitor — however one with a a lot stronger odor. (And can folks be capable of detect gasoline leaks anymore?)

* * *

Should you missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) take into account most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we now have.

* * *

Case depend by United States areas:

The regular upward climb resumes. Keep in mind that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of instances, and draw the blue “Biden Line” at that time. Yesterday, the depend was 106,000. As we speak, it’s 117,300, and 117,300 * 6 = a Biden line at 702,000. At the very least we now have affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes had a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

Listed here are instances for the final 4 weeks:

The regular upward climb resumes, particularly within the South, which jibes with each the positivity and Fast Riser counties.

• “Is the Covid pandemic lastly nearing its finish?” [Guardian]. • No.

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker:

Fiddling and diddling. This tracker does this at peaks, but in addition not at peaks. I’m leaving the company emblem on as a slap to the goons at CDC.

MWRA wastewater knowledge:

Each South and North down.

The Massachusetts Water Sources Authority (MWRA) service space consists of 43 municipalities in and round Boston, together with not solely a number of college methods however a number of giant universities. Since Boston is so very education-heavy, then, I feel it may very well be a very good main indicator for Covid unfold in faculties typically.

Circumstances lag wastewater knowledge.

From Biobot Analytics:

One other wild spherical of unexplained revisions. On the brilliant facet, they’ve revised the variant knowledge. Be aware that BA.4 and BA.5 are rising within the South (as of Could 18). Right here is confirming CDC variant knowledge as of Could 21 for CDC Area 6:

I needed to see Texas and Louisiana, so I picked Area 6; I haven’t been capable of coerce CDC’s nationwide map into offering knowledge throughout areas.

From CDC Neighborhood Profile Experiences (PDFs), “Fast Riser” counties:

This may very well be the breakout within the South I’ve been ready for; take a look at Texas and Louisiana (and North Carolina). This may jibe with each case knowledge and wastewater knowledge.

The earlier launch:

NOTE I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you:

East coast, West Coast, and Midwest are all crimson. Nice Plains speckled with yellow. (As has been the case for weeks, even whereas folks had been yammering that “Covid is over!”)

Hospitalization (CDC Neighborhood Profile):

A lot improved, rather more inexperienced. I feel the hospital-centric goons at CDC are beginning to suppose it’s throughout. I doubt it.

Demise charge (Our World in Knowledge):

Complete: 1,033,830 1,032,862. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line.

Covid instances in high us journey locations (Statista):

Be aware the standard of those numbers varies wildly. For instance, the UK is slicing again on testing knowledge.

Stats Watch

Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US fell for a second month to 67.1 in Could of 2022, the bottom since December of 2020 and down significantly from March’s all-time excessive of 76.2. The studying confirmed the logistics business continues to increase, pushed primarily by robust development in stock (69.3 vs 72.3 in April) and warehousing metrics, as provide chains proceed struggling to seek out the capability wanted to cope with excessive ranges of stock. Warehousing Capability (45.9 vs 40.8) prolonged a streak of 21 consecutive months of contraction as transport containers proceed to be a chokepoint as they sit on docks as a consequence of a scarcity in obtainable house.”

* * *

Tech: “Vectorized and performance-portable Quicksort” [Google Open Source Blog]. “As we speak we’re sharing open supply code that may type arrays of numbers about ten occasions as quick because the C++ std::type, and outperforms state-of-the-art architecture-specific algorithms, whereas being moveable throughout all trendy CPU architectures.” • And we’ve obtained plenty of knowledge to type!

* * *

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 30 Concern (earlier shut: 29 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 26 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jun 7 at 1:09 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

Screening Room

Now do “It’s a Fantastic Life”:

The Gallery

I’ve to confess I really like these things:

Someway, regardless of the overwhelming complexity, it seems easy and ordered.

Zeitgeist Watch

“Higher vaguely proper than exactly mistaken in efficient altruism: the issue of marginalism” [Economics and Philosophy]. “We increase a sensible downside for [Effective altruism (EA)], which is that there’s a essential empirical presupposition implicit in its charity evaluation strategies which is fake in lots of contexts. That is the presupposition that the magnitude of the advantages (or harms) generated by some charity range repeatedly within the scale of the intervention carried out.” • If I interpret this accurately, which means extra money ≠ extra good. Oopsie. Commentary:

Excel jockeys with MBAs once more.

Class Warfare

“Most employees who died of COVID in 2020 had one thing important in frequent, examine finds” [Miami Herald]. “Most working-age People who died of COVID-19 through the first 12 months of the pandemic had been so-called important employees in labor, service and retail jobs that required on-site attendance and extended contact with others, in line with a not too long ago printed examine led by a College of South Florida epidemiologist. The examine seems again on COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and affirms what many had already recognized or suspected — that People who couldn’t make money working from home and who labored in low-paying jobs with few or no advantages, resembling paid sick go away and medical health insurance protection, bore the brunt of deaths through the pandemic’s first 12 months, mentioned Jason Salemi, an affiliate professor in USF’s School of Public Well being and co-author of the examine. Salemi mentioned the discovering, whereas maybe anticipated, left him with two takeaways: That important employees want extra protections throughout an infectious illness pandemic, and that society’s want to ‘return to regular’ will imply various things for various folks — with inequitable penalties.” • Sadly, schooling had for use as a proxy for sophistication. Nonetheless. Humorous the way you by no means noticed something about important employees on these “On this home….” indicators. Or employees in any respect. Right here is the unique examine.

Information of the Wired

“Bodily maps of feelings” [Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]. “Feelings are sometimes felt within the physique, and somatosensory suggestions has been proposed to set off acutely aware emotional experiences. Right here we reveal maps of bodily sensations related to completely different feelings utilizing a singular topographical self-report technique. In 5 experiments, individuals (n = 701) had been proven two silhouettes of our bodies alongside emotional phrases, tales, motion pictures, or facial expressions. They had been requested to paint the bodily areas whose exercise they felt rising or reducing whereas viewing every stimulus. Completely different feelings had been constantly related to statistically separable bodily sensation maps throughout experiments. These maps had been concordant throughout West European and East Asian samples. Statistical classifiers distinguished emotion-specific activation maps precisely, confirming independence of topographies throughout feelings. We suggest that feelings are represented within the somatosensory system as culturally common categorical somatotopic maps.” • Cultural universals, eh?

Good calls (legit):

Jackpot!

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From ChiGal:

ChiGal writes: “Horse chestnuts are in flower.” I really feel I ought to know extra about chestnuts than I do. Do we now have a chestnut maven within the readership?

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the not too long ago concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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