By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, I needed to end up a submit on gig employees, and so it is a quick model of Water Cooler. However there’s an excessive amount of taking place for me to not submit, so please come again in a pair hours for a extra full model. In the meantime, speak amongst yourselves! –lambert UPDATE Completed!

Fowl Tune of the Day

Grey’s Lark, Naukluft Park, Namibia. “Calls earlier than daybreak with full moon.” I don’t know what that tender whirring noise is. Courtship show?

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“That they had realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Capitol Seizure

Hmm:

Biden Administration

“Prime Harris aide to go away administration subsequent month” [The Hill]. “Rohini Kosoglu, who serves as home coverage adviser to the vp, is ready to go away the job in August. Kosoglu was one of many few staffers Harris introduced together with her from the Senate to her unsuccessful presidential marketing campaign to the workplace of the vp. ‘She knew her higher than anybody on employees,’ stated one supply in Harris World…. She advised [WaPo] .” • BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA! Kosoglu needs to spend extra time together with her household as a result of she doesn’t imagine Harris will ever be President.

2022

* * *

“The Cavernous Money Hole in Senate Races” [Too Close to Call]. “[T]he placing factor to the second quarter fundraising totals in marquee Senate races is the cavernous hole between Democrats and Republicans, even in second-tier contests like Ohio, the place J.D. Vance nonetheless needs to be barely favored over Tim Ryan…. And sure, I take severely the current historical past of Democratic contenders — Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon, Jaime Harrison — who blew the doorways off fundraising partitions solely to wilt on the poll field….. However put apart the Democratic hauls for a second. With names like Oz, former N.F.L. star Herschel Walker, best-selling creator Vance, Nevada legacy Adam Laxalt, Republicans needs to be seeing extra money dropped into their very own marketing campaign kettles. These usually are not no title contenders. And these aren’t far-flung races in deep pink states like Kentucky or South Carolina. They’re the whole ballgame of the cycle. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada — these are the states that can doubtless be determined by tens of 1000’s of votes. If the GOP doesn’t recapture the Senate in a 12 months they need to, it’ll doubtless as a result of a number of of those candidates fell simply quick. Cash won’t have made the distinction, however it’ll certainly be cited as proof of their vanquishment. Alternatively, if these candidates succeed being outspent by tens of hundreds of thousands, they’ll have fortified a brand new marketing campaign mannequin.”

“Have you ever thought-about that the Democrats aren’t truly doomed?” [The Hill]. “[T]right here is an rising counternarrative that isn’t making its manner into written and TV commentary and deserves consideration. Plus, who doesn’t like a little bit recreation of satan’s advocate?… The generic congressional poll has been the centerpiece of the ‘Democrats are doomed’ narrative…. [T]right here have been 11 impartial polls of the generic congressional poll since Roe v. Wade ended, and the Democrats have led total. They now maintain a 2.2-point benefit within the post-Roe polling world. And if the election have been held at this time, Republicans would acquire seven Home seats — sufficient to regain management of the Home however removed from a pink wave…. If the drop in [gas] costs continues, we’re on observe to be below $4 a gallon by the center of August… For those who have a look at essential Senate races in states comparable to Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden by enormous margins…. [Abortion] has jumped to the fourth-most necessary concern total in FiveThirtyEight polling, and 19 % rank it as their main concern, up from 9 % in early June…. Biden’s scores could also be horrible, however he nonetheless beats Trump in a head-to-head match-up, 44 % to 41 %.” • After which, after all, there’s Biden’s dealing with of Ukraine, to not point out the J6 — ugh, do I’ve to say that? — Committee.

PA: “Columbia College Medical Heart Cuts Ties with Dr. Oz” [WebMD]. “Columbia College Medical Heart has lower public ties with Mehmet Oz, MD, the superstar physician who goes by “Dr. Oz” and is now a Senate candidate in Pennsylvania… What’s extra, the outgoing message on the workplace voicemail for the cellphone quantity within the itemizing is previous. It advertises viewers tickets to his former daytime TV present and tells callers about medical companies that he stopped offering 4 years in the past, the [Daily Beast] reported.” • Lol, stylish!

PA: No:

The feedback are withering.

PA: Whenever you’ve gained Dante Atkins:

PA: “A Working Record of John Fetterman’s Very Finest Burns of Dr. Oz” [Jezebel]. • I’m very glad that is how the chattering courses are occupying their minds (and I’m positive all of them have only a few Pennsylvania voters as readers). However sooner or later, Fetterman must hit the path. Doesn’t he?

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Democrats’ Issues Go Past Joe Manchin” [Ross Barkan, The Atlantic]. “[Manchin’s] clout, nevertheless, is a better reminder of Democratic failure. It didn’t need to be this manner. The 50-50 Senate might have been a 51-49 Democratic Senate and even 52-48. Within the final two election cycles, Democrats misplaced winnable races with flawed candidates or struggled, within the case of Invoice Nelson of Florida, to defend an incumbent in a blue-wave 12 months. Manchin agita is healthier reserved for the disastrous marketing campaign of Sara Gideon, the Maine Democrat who spent greater than $63 million to lose to Susan Collins and nonetheless had virtually $15 million left in her account after the election. Gideon’s 2020 loss was galling as a result of Joe Biden ran strongly in Maine, beating Trump 53 to 44 %. Collins, a reasonable Republican, was one of many few candidates anyplace to handle an efficient ticket-splitting bid, successful over many Biden voters. Gideon’s uninspiring and overtly nationalized marketing campaign was an in poor health match for Maine, emblematic of all of the methods Democrats in D.C. have failed to attach in rural America. Past Maine, Democrats’ missed alternatives in Florida and North Carolina will most likely hang-out them for years to come back. Whereas Florida has turn into, since 2020, a foreboding state for left-of-center candidates, 2018 was a uncommon alternative for Democrats to no less than defend their positive aspects. As Republican Ron DeSantis very narrowly defeated Andrew Gillum, Florida senator Invoice Nelson fell to Governor Rick Scott, a GOP arch-conservative. Nelson misplaced by simply 10,033 votes, an absurdly shut margin…. Not like Maine, North Carolina was not a Biden state in 2020: Trump received it by only a single share level. A robust Democratic contender, nevertheless, might have run forward of the presidential ticket and received a slim victory. Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s Democratic governor, completed this twice. However the nationwide Democrats’ selection of Cal Cunningham, a reasonable former state senator, to tackle Republican Thom Tillis would backfire when information of an extramarital affair broke shortly earlier than Election Day. The affair, although, didn’t doom Tillis alone. The Cunningham marketing campaign was a milquetoast, insipid endeavor, providing little in the best way of a compelling coverage or imaginative and prescient. Had Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Marketing campaign Committee been extra encouraging to a younger, energetic state senator named Jeff Jackson, it’s doable Democrats can be holding the seat at this time. None of this could spare Manchin criticism. Moderately, it’s a reminder for activists and atypical Democratic voters that one senator from West Virginia doesn’t embody all that’s unsuitable with the social gathering.” • Brutal.

“The Democrats’ Failure Is Full” [Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine]. “Democrats wanted to rise to the problem of proving they’d the capability to make use of their restricted powers in inventive and productive methods. It’s virtually not possible to think about now they are going to have the ability to say they succeeded.” • To be honest, antitrust. Not a vote-getter, apparently.

The brand new Black Misleadership Class:

Extra ice cream:

Ouch:

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Inflation and Political Instability Open Door to Unrest in U.S. and Round World” [Teen Vogue]. “It is sensible that after a surge in in style actions together with the George Floyd rebellions, Occupy Wall Avenue, the Standing Rock protests, and a battle in opposition to fascism, we’re experiencing a robust backlash from these making an attempt to cling to energy. The hope lies in us. The hope is that we proceed to take care of a tradition of resistance. And that by means of direct actions and organizing we proceed to develop that resistance to take care of the troubling occasions that lie earlier than us. If we want encouragement we want solely have a look at what’s taking place in different international locations around the globe.” • Iskra this isn’t. But additionally, Tiger Beat this isn’t!

Sans culottes in DC?

Actively pursuing a state of non-bafflement:

The good factor about contradictory premises is you can attain any conclusion you need from them.

#COVID19

• ”Covid Nasal Vaccine’s Section 3 Trials Accomplished, Says Bharat Biotech Chief” [NDTV]. “Dr Krishna Ella, Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Biotech on Saturday stated that the medical part III trials of the COVID-19 nasal vaccine have been accomplished and the corporate will submit its information with Medicine Controller Common of India (DCGI) subsequent month. In an unique interview with ANI, Dr Ella stated, ‘We simply accomplished a medical trial, an information evaluation is occurring. Subsequent month, we are going to submit the info to the regulatory company. If all the things is okay, then we are going to get permission to launch and it will likely be the world’s first clinically confirmed nasal COVID-19 vaccine.’” • Properly, let’s transfer this alongside, please.

* * *

• Maskstravaganza: One other pure experiment in faculties, this one at scale in Alberta:

New sh*t has come to gentle:

• Maskstravaganza: Infecting one’s passengers is a novel enterprise technique, however go away it to the airways to provide you with it:

• Maskstravaganza: Extra airplane enjoyable:

Ewwwww! (Critically, although, I’d wish to see increasingly more Aranet4 utilization, made extremely seen; it’s the type of factor the Air Breathers Social gathering would advocate, no? Additionally, for instance of commercial design, the Aranet4 is endearingly clunky; I just like the seen circuit board on the entrance. I believe this makes it much less threatening, much less, if you’ll, judge-y.)

• Extra metering enjoyable:

A hopeful signal. Any sightings within the wild from readers?

• The individuals who hold saying “we now have the instruments” by no means heart the instruments that forestall airborne transmission:

• This sorry state of affairs persists throughout the board:

Covid is just not the one illness the place “Vax solely” applies:


* * *

• Keep in mind when life was going to be easy, and we wouldn’t be seeing gibberish like BA.5 and BA.2.7.5 on our timelines? Properly, persons are taking issues into their very own palms:

(Really, I don’t thoughts the gibberish an excessive amount of; the variant names remind me idol group names like 2NE1 or AKB48 (BNK48 (JKT48 (SNH48))). Or Chanel No. 5, I suppose.

* * *

For those who missed it, right here’s a submit on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we now have.

* * *

Case Depend

Case rely for the USA:

The practice remains to be rolling. There was a bizarre, plateau-like “fiddling and diddling” stage earlier than the Omicron explosion, too. This conjuncture feels the identical. Beneath the hood the BA.4/BA.5 are making up a better and better proportion of circumstances. Do not forget that circumstances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true degree of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~125,200. As we speak, it’s ~135,400 and 135,400 * 6 = a Biden line at 812,400 per day. That’s moderately a number of circumstances per day, when you concentrate on it. No less than we now have affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

Regional case rely for 4 weeks:

Now the South and West.

The South:

Florida and Texas, now neck and neck.

The West:

Whoa, Gavin!

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker:

0.4%. Down! (I’m wondering if there’s a Keynesian Magnificence Contest impact, right here; that’s, if individuals encounter a sympotomatic individual, whether or not of their social circle or in regular exercise, they’re extra more likely to get a check, as a result of they imagine, appropriately, that it’s extra doubtless they are going to be contaminated.) What we’re seeing right here is the steepest and largest acceleration of positivity on Walgreen’s chart.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you. For June 30 – July 6:

Established order, i.e. it’s a not-over pandemic.

Lambert right here: After the transfer from the CDC to the laughingly named ‘https://healthdata.gov,” this discover appeared: “Efficient June 22, 2022, the Neighborhood Profile Report will solely be up to date twice per week, on Wednesdays and Fridays.” So now the administration has belatedly come to the belief that we’re in a BA.5 surge, and but important information for making our private danger evaluation is barely obtainable twice per week. What’s the over/below on whether or not they truly ship tomorrow?

NOT UPDATED Speedy Riser information, by county (CDC), July 14:

Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Alabama, Illinois all worse. California higher, oddlly. I don’t like these little pink speckles in New York, as a result of the Northeast has been quiet for a while (notice slight rise in case information). What’s that each one about

Earlier Speedy Riser information:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization information, by state (CDC), July 14:

Very unstable. Haven’t seen so little inexperienced (good) in fairly a while.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. I appeared for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), June 30:

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), June 25:

BA.5 transferring alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), Jun 28, 2022 – Jul 12, 2022:

A lot of orange, extra pink. Not good. This chart works a bit like speedy riser counties: “This metric exhibits whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a website are presently greater or decrease than previous historic ranges on the similar website. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the website; 100% means ranges are the best they’ve been on the website.” So, there’s a bunch of pink dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so which means “ranges are the best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.

Lambert right here: This web page was loading so slowly that I started to marvel if that is how CDC had chosen to sabotage wastewater efforts. Nevertheless, after some experimentation, I discover I have to flip off my VPN to get this web page to load. Good job, CDC.

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,048,843 1,048,232. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a pleasant, easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to all the things else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at this time.

* * *

Commodities: “‘Dr Copper’ has a worrying message concerning the vitality transition” [Financial Times]. “[Copper] can be nicknamed ‘Dr Copper’. Owing to its widespread use and its sensitivity to enterprise cycles, its value has an uncanny means to supply early warning of what’s forward for the financial system. The present fall within the value of copper is seen as a portent of slowdown or outright recession. However Dr Copper is now taking up a brand new function because the crucial steel for web zero emissions. This “vitality transition demand” provides to the standard demand for the steel in building, kitchen home equipment, computer systems and the innards of your cell phone. Many carmakers are pledging that each one their new autos can be electrical by the 2030s. The Biden administration within the US is focusing on emissions-free electrical era by 2035, whereas the EU’s RePowerEU technique pledges an accelerated swap to renewable energy. The important thing level is that the applied sciences central to the vitality transition — comparable to EVs, charging infrastructure, photo voltaic photovoltaics, wind generators and batteries — all require rather more copper than their standard hydrocarbon-based counterparts. For example, a battery-powered electrical automotive requires no less than two and a half occasions extra copper than a standard automotive; a medium-sized truck 4 occasions as a lot.”

The Bezzle: “Evaluation: Shoppers of crypto lender Celsius face lengthy wait over destiny of their funds” [Reuters]. “Prospects of crypto lender Celsius face a protracted and anxious wait to understand how, when and even when they are going to get their a reimbursement after the corporate filed for chapter, turning into one of many greatest victims of the collapse in crypto markets this 12 months….. Whereas main crypto corporations have failed earlier than, most notably the Japanese trade Mt. Gox in 2014, there may be little precedent for the remedy of shoppers at stricken crypto lenders, the legal professionals stated. ‘It’s, at finest, unknown how the chapter code and chapter courts can be treating cryptocurrency firms,’ stated James Van Horn, accomplice at Barnes & Thornburg in Washington… Whereas it isn’t clear how Celsius will classify its shoppers, it did warn clients it might deal with them as unsecured collectors – and clients are more likely to litigate over such a standing, stated Max Dilendorf, a lawyer in New York specialising in crypto.” • It has gone the place the woodbine twineth….

The Bezzle: “Crypto collapse reverberates extensively amongst black American traders” [FInancial Times]. “1 / 4 of black American traders owned cryptocurrencies firstly of the 12 months, in contrast with solely 15 per cent of white traders, based on a survey by Ariel Investments and Charles Schwab. Black Individuals have been greater than twice as more likely to buy cryptocurrency as their first funding… Black Individuals’ greater publicity to cryptocurrencies has left them extra weak to the monetary downturn, at the same time as their households on common maintain much less wealth….. The promise of cryptocurrencies as a wealth builder has been supercharged by superstar endorsements, sponsorships and promoting. Outstanding black Individuals together with the musicians Jay-Z and Snoop Dogg, the boxer Floyd Mayweather, the actor Jamie Foxx and the film-maker Spike Lee have promoted crypto to their communities.”

Tech: “Report: Apple and Jony Ive will not work collectively” [Ars Technica]. “In 2019, Ive departed the corporate to discovered an impartial design agency, referred to as LoveFrom, and Apple CEO Tim Prepare dinner introduced his intention to work with Ive “lengthy into the long run” in a deal that was value greater than $100 million…. Now, ‘two individuals with data of their contractual settlement” have advised The New York Occasions that the design agency and Apple will not be working collectively.’” • Good. The brand new MacBook Professional, which is a strong, to not say chonky machine to which — hallelujah! — the MagSafe connector has returned, exhibits that Ives’ “skinny in any respect prices” aesthetic was damaging of the {hardware} necessities that productive professionals have. His departure was, if something, overdue.

* * *

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 28 Concern (earlier shut: 26 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 18 at 3:39 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Provide/Value. “Oil has dropped under $100 per barrel” [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. Now it has. UPDATE And now it retreats once more. Actually?!

Gardening

Butterfly counts:

Usually, I believe we needs to be counting extra pure issues (and fewer issues in spreadsheets). Butterflies, CO2…

The Conservatory

Reel-to-reel scratching (!):

Zeitgeist Watch

“Three simple methods to search out hidden cameras in motels and rental properties” [CNBC]. “Practically 60% of Individuals stated they have been fearful about hidden cameras in Airbnb properties in 2019. And 11% of trip residence renters stated they’d found a hidden digicam throughout a keep, based on a survey by the true property funding firm IPX1031.” Many useful hints for recognizing the issues, together with: “Nearly all covert cameras are hid in family units, comparable to lights, thermostats, and plugged clock radios, [Kenneth Bombace, CEO of intelligence firm Global Threat Solutions] stated…. He stated the very first thing he does in a bed room is unplug the clock radios and put them in a drawer.” • Who did this?

Class Warfare

“Boeing ‘upset’ union recommending rejection of contract supply” [Reuters]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.

Information of the Wired

“CP/M’s open-source standing clarified after 21 years’ [The Register]. “CP/M first appeared in 1974, just one 12 months after the primary model of UNIX written in C. The distinction is that even then, UNIX was moderately advanced, whereas CP/M is tiny…. Attributable to its tiny dimension and excessive simplicity, today it’s pretty easy to hand-build your individual Z80 laptop from components – on a breadboard, or from a equipment, of which the RC2014 is a well-liked instance. The RC2014 can run a number of ROMs and OSes, together with RomWBW, which lets you boot a selection of CP/M family: CP/M 2.2, ZSDOS 1.1, NZCOM, CP/M 3, and ZPM3, amongst others.” • Jackpot-ready!

Dad.


* * *

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “One other beautiful Roger’s Gardens specimen: A cheery Chinese language Lantern (Alkekengi officinarum).”

* * *

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Forcible Removing of US Sen. Alex Padilla Indicators a Harmful Shift in American Democracy





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