By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Readers, I apologize as soon as extra for the thinness of the Covid protection, however there’s been a lot taking place in electoral politics I assumed I ought to clear my backlog there. Life’s wealthy pageant! –lambert

Hen Tune of the Day

Horned Lark, California, United States.

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Capitol Seizure

“Jan. 6 committee divided on Dem meddling in GOP primaries” [Axios]. “Members of the Home Jan. 6 committee are divided on whether or not to sentence the rising development of Democrats meddling in GOP primaries to spice up pro-Trump election deniers — a tactic designed to safe extra favorable matchups within the common election. The committee has spent the final yr warning that former President Trump and his allies — together with candidates working on this yr’s midterms — are endangering American democracy by casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election…. Public backlash intensified yesterday when it emerged that the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee is boosting an election denier in his major towards Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) — certainly one of 10 Home Republicans who voted to question Trump for his function within the Jan. 6 Capitol riot…. ‘The DCCC is enjoying with hearth. It undercuts the good work of the Jan. 6 committee and makes us seem like hypocrites,’ one Democratic member of Congress informed Axios.” • The DCCC? Absolutely not.

“‘Form of Wild/Inventive’: Emails Shed Gentle on Trump Pretend Electors Plan” [New York Times]. “Beforehand undisclosed emails present an inside take a look at the more and more determined and sometimes slapdash efforts by advisers to President Donald J. Trump to reverse his election defeat within the weeks earlier than the Jan. 6 assault, together with acknowledgments {that a} key ingredient of their plan was of doubtful legality and lived as much as its billing as ‘pretend.’ The handfuls of emails amongst individuals linked to the Trump marketing campaign, outdoors advisers and shut associates of Mr. Trump present a selected concentrate on assembling lists of people that would declare — with no foundation — to be Electoral School electors on his behalf in battleground states that he had misplaced. In emails reviewed by The New York Occasions and authenticated by individuals who had labored with the Trump marketing campaign on the time, one lawyer concerned within the detailed discussions repeatedly used the phrase ‘pretend’ to consult with the so-called electors, who have been meant to supply Vice President Mike Pence and Mr. Trump’s allies in Congress a rationale for derailing the congressional strategy of certifying the end result. And attorneys engaged on the proposal made clear they knew that the pro-Trump electors they have been placing ahead may not maintain as much as authorized scrutiny. ‘We’d simply be sending in ‘pretend’ electoral votes to Pence in order that ‘somebody’ in Congress could make an objection after they begin counting votes, and begin arguing that the ‘pretend’ votes must be counted,” Jack Wilenchik, a Phoenix-based lawyer who helped set up the pro-Trump electors in Arizona, wrote in a Dec. 8, 2020, e-mail to Boris Epshteyn, a strategic adviser for the Trump marketing campaign.” • It sounds just like the Committee would fairly indict the entire Republican Occasion as a substitute of Trump, so why don’t they simply go forward and do this?

Biden Administration

“McConnell says Pelosi would hand China a win if she sacks Taiwan journey after complaints” [New York Post]. “The Kentucky Republican was requested in regards to the speaker touring to Taiwan amid China’s threats and mentioned there are different issues past the journey that must be mentioned. ‘If she doesn’t go now, she’s dealing with China a kind of a victory of types,’ McConnell mentioned at a Senate Republican management information convention on Tuesday.” • Oh, nice. Has there ever been a really dangerous concept that wasn’t bipartisan?

“Pelosi has invited senior lawmakers to affix Taiwan journey, high Republican says” [NBC]. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has invited a small group of lawmakers on her official journey to Taiwan, together with the highest Democrat and Republican on the Home International Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, informed NBC Information on Wednesday. McCaul, the rating member on the international affairs panel, mentioned each he and Chairman Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., have been invited by the speaker on an upcoming journey to the self-ruling island that China sees as below its management. The Texas Republican mentioned he declined the invitation on account of a private obligation that conflicts with the go to. The journey is slated to happen in the course of the congressional August recess, although McCaul didn’t present the precise dates. ‘Any member that wishes to go, ought to. It exhibits political deterrence to President Xi,’ McCaul, a China hawk, mentioned in a short interview within the Capitol. ‘However she must also take note of the army if it’s going to trigger a blowback and escalate issues.’” • McCaul’s place is definitely extra accountable than Pelosi’s.

“Home Democrats Urge Extra Vegetarian Meals in US Buildings” [Bloomberg]. “US authorities cafeterias ought to add vegetarian meal choices to all menus, a bunch of 32 Democrats from the Home of Representatives mentioned in a letter to President Joe Biden on Tuesday….. Plant-based meals can produce “dramatic” enhancements for people’ well being, and serving them in federal amenities would scale back the federal government’s carbon footprint, the group mentioned. Agriculture accounted for 11% of US greenhouse gasoline emissions in 2020, in keeping with the US Environmental Safety Company.” • All true, however is “small ball” politics actually what we’d like proper now?

2022

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PA: “Gen Z mobilizes for midterm elections as examine emphasizes younger voters’ outsize influence on Pa. politics” [Post-Gazette]. “Earlier this summer season, the political division at Tufts College in Massachusetts launched a examine rating Pennsylvania as the highest state the place youth are poised to have a disproportionately excessive electoral influence within the 2022 elections. Partially, that’s on account of Pennsylvania’s excessive price of youth voter registration, which sits at 69% — to not point out the substantial 54% of youth that truly voted within the 2020 elections, giving President Joe Biden a internet benefit of 150,000 votes from that demographic.”

PA: “John Fetterman Isn’t Doing What He Thinks He Is With His Meme Roasts of Dr. Oz” [Slate]. Key level: “[T]right here is little proof that social media resonance has a tangible impact on electoral success.” • I view the social media effort as a holding motion (and likewise a technique to distract the vicious youngsters within the political class with memes, which is each enjoyable and the suitable factor to do). As long as Fetterman’s numbers hoild up, I received’t fear an excessive amount of. (I’m much more nervous about Fetterman’s efficiency in debate, if there’s one. Possibly they might make issues simple for Oz, and maintain it at Rutgers?)

PA: Everyone hates a vacationer:

(Good thought for a Fetterman theme tune, really.)

TX: “If sufficient Texas Democrats vote, Beto O’Rourke will probably be governor, Dallas county decide says” [Dallas Morning-News]. “The prospects for Democrats in Texas are “ever-improving,” Dallas County Decide Clay Jenkins informed the gang on the Texas Democratic Conference in Dallas on Friday. He mentioned the get together can win by reaching out to new voters and those that usually don’t vote for Democrats. Beto O’Rourke, who’s difficult Gov. Greg Abbott, is working to attraction to disaffected Republicans and independents, along with Democrats. ‘If sufficient Democrats in Texas vote, Beto O’Rourke will probably be our governor,’ he informed the fired-up crowd.

2024

“Trump tiptoes nearer to new White Home run in DC handle” [The Hill]. “Trump’s viability as a frontrunner of the get together has been thrown into query at the least for the second as a Home committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol spotlights the previous president’s function in spreading falsehoods in regards to the 2020 election, encouraging his supporters to come back to the Capitol after which doing nothing for hours to quell the violence. Polling has proven majorities consider Trump bears accountability for the Jan. 6 assault. And more moderen polls have indicated at the least a number of the Republican Occasion is keen to maneuver on from Trump in favor of another candidate in 2024.” • Response to Trump’s America First Agenda Summit in Washington, DC.

“Mike Pence squares as much as Donald Trump as former working mates eye 2024 bids” [Financial Times]. “On Tuesday morning, Mike Pence stood earlier than a crowd of younger Republicans in Washington DC, outlining his imaginative and prescient for the way forward for the get together and calling on its supporters to keep away from ‘the temptation to look again’. Six hours later and a mile down the street, the previous vice-president’s erstwhile boss, Donald Trump, made his personal pitch for the get together’s future at a convention for the America First Coverage Institute, repeating his disproved claims of fraud within the 2020 election and teasing the potential of one other presidential run. ‘If I renounced my beliefs, if I agreed to remain silent . . . the persecution of Donald Trump would cease instantly,’ he informed the gang. ‘However that’s not what I’ll do . . . I’ve to avoid wasting our nation.’ The back-to-back speeches within the US capital have been the most recent proof of the simmering feud between the previous working mates turned political foes and of their competing political ambitions, with each eyeing a bid for the White Home in 2024. In his speech on the Younger America’s Basis’s Nationwide Conservative Scholar Convention, Pence attacked the ‘aggressive liberalism’ [lol] of the Biden administration and Democrats and mentioned this yr’s midterm elections supplied Republicans ‘one of the best probability we’ll ever must construct an enduring majority.’ However he additionally made a thinly veiled plea for the get together to interrupt with Trump, urging Republicans to concentrate on profitable Congress after which the White Home fairly than combating historic battles. ‘Now some individuals could select to concentrate on the previous,’ he mentioned. ‘However elections . . . are in regards to the future. And I consider conservatives should concentrate on the long run to win again America.’ Pence is hoping he can overcome anger amongst Republican voters — lots of whom fault him for certifying Joe Biden’s election victory in 2020 — by taking credit score for financial, immigration and commerce insurance policies carried out in the course of the Trump administration.” • I might speculate that many Republican voters are of the thoughts of Baron Harkonnen: “The person should die. He tried to assist my enemies.” Definitely one future to sit up for! Certainly one of life’s little ironies is that Pence, as the person who didn’t “get into the automobile,” is maybe greatest positioned to articulate a “concept of the case” towards Trump’s actions or inactions in the course of the Capitol seizure. I don’t see Pence because the grasp communicator who may carry out that plot reversal, nonetheless.

“Buttigieg edges out Biden amongst Democrats in New Hampshire ballot” [The Hill]. “The College of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Middle Granite Ballot discovered that 17 p.c of possible 2024 Democratic major voters within the state would select Buttigieg amongst an inventory of Democrats, or those that caucus with Democrats, who’re thought of doable 2024 presidential contenders. Biden acquired 16 p.c assist, adopted by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who every got here in at 10 p.c. A handful of different Democrats, as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), acquired lower than 10 p.c. The margin of error for among the many Democrats polled particularly is plus or minus 4.7 factors, that means Buttgieg and Biden are statistically tied amongst voters. However the polling additional demonstrates that Democrats will not be wedded to the concept of selecting Biden as their nominee within the subsequent presidential cycle. The White Home has mentioned Biden intends to run in 2024, although Buttigieg has not made any bulletins on the matter.” • One would possibly suppose that treatring protection of “our democracy” as a core worth after which nominating a candidate who declared himself (falsely) the winner of a major earlier than a single vote was formally counted* would someway be at odds, however then these are Democrats, who’re notably versatile of their considering. NOTE * Iowa 2020.

Republican Funhouse

“Telling the Reality in regards to the 2020 Election” [By Thomas B. Griffith, J. Michael Luttig, Michael W. Mcconnell, Theodore B. Olson, Benjamin L. Ginsberg, and Dave Hoppe, National Review]. “Persevering with allegations that the 2020 election was ‘stolen’ are roiling our politics and dividing our nation. Certainly, now a major proportion of the American public doubts the legitimacy of our system. That triggered us, political conservatives who’ve spent most of our careers working to uphold the Structure and the conservative ideas upon which it’s based mostly, to delve deeply into these prices and gauge their accuracy. All of us have both labored in Republican Occasion politics at a number of ranges and in varied capacities or labored within the authorities on account of Republican appointments. Certainly, certainly one of us, Theodore B. Olson, efficiently represented George W. Bush in a Supreme Courtroom case that ended Al Gore’s unmerited problem to the outcomes of the 2000 presidential election. We’ve no affiliation with the Democratic Occasion…. As a result of allegations of fraudulent and rigged elections are so severely affecting public opinion, particularly amongst Republicans, we carried out an open-minded examination of the various claims by former president Trump and his supporters and allies who agree with him in regards to the 2020 election and tried to behave on their beliefs. We take such claims severely…. Due to this fact, we painstakingly surveyed every of the 187 counts within the 64 court docket instances introduced on Trump’s behalf contesting the outcomes of the 2020 election, the state recounts and contests introduced within the title of the previous president, and the post-election evaluations undertaken within the six key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to find out whether or not there’s any hearth amidst all of the smoke. Our assessment has led us to conclude that there’s merely no proof of fraud within the 2020 presidential election of the magnitude essential to shift the lead to any state, not to mention the nation as an entire. In actual fact, not even a single precinct’s consequence was reversed.” • Their report. It isn’t, nonetheless, clear that the Republican Occasion during which these people have been grandees even exists anymore.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“‘There was virtually no debate’: How Dems’ protection spending spree went from shocker to snoozer” [Politico]. “Final yr, Democrats on Capitol Hill surprised observers after they voted to ladle tens of billions of additional {dollars} onto President Joe Biden’s first Pentagon price range. Wielding management of the Home, Senate and White Home for the primary time in a decade, Democrats have been anticipated to carry the road on Pentagon spending that ballooned below Republicans and the Trump administration. Now, Congress is poised to do it once more — with much more cash at stake — and it’s something however surprising.” • That’s as a result of Democrats are the Conflict Occasion.

Invoice Kristol as not a part of the Republican Institution….

The thoughts reels. It’s like, say, Cromwell morphing right into a Royalist.

Obama Legacy

Thanks, Obama!

And undercutting a Crimson State advocate!

“Biden’s Issues Go Again To 2009” [Seeing the Forest]. Ultimate sentence: “When you consider ALL the issues Democrats may have executed after the general public DEMANDED change, placing Obama into the presidency and delivering HUGE majorities within the Home and Senate – however selected to not – you’ll be able to see why issues are the best way they’re as we speak.” • Precisely.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“America’s Self-Obsession Is Killing Its Democracy” [The Atlantic]. “American democracy is dying. There are many medicines that may remedy it. Sadly, our political dysfunction means we’re selecting to not use them, and as time passes, fewer therapies change into out there to us, despite the fact that the illness is turning into terminal. No main prodemocracy reforms have handed Congress. No key political figures who tried to overturn an American election have confronted actual accountability. The president who orchestrated the best menace to our democracy in trendy occasions is free to run for reelection, and will properly return to workplace. Our present scenario began with a botched prognosis. When Trump first rose to political prominence, a lot of the American political class reacted with amusement, seeing him as a sideshow. Even when he received, they thought, he’d tweet like a populist firebrand whereas governing like a Romney Republican, constrained by the system. However for many who had watched Trump-like authoritarian strongmen rise in Turkey, India, Hungary, Poland, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Venezuela, Trump was by no means entertaining. He was ominously acquainted. At difficulty was a traditional frame-of-reference drawback. America’s political tradition is astonishingly insular. Activate cable information and it’s all America, on a regular basis. Different international locations sometimes make cameos, however the story remains to be about us… Our self-obsession signifies that each time authoritarianism rises overseas, it’s talked about briefly, if in any respect. Have you ever ever noticed a breathless octobox of speaking heads on CNN or Fox Information debating the demise of democracy in Turkey, Sri Lanka, or the Philippines? That’s why most American pundits and journalists used an ‘outsider involves Washington’ framework to course of Trump’s marketing campaign and his presidency, when they need to have been becoming each recent truth into an ‘authoritarian populist’ framework or a ‘democratic demise spiral’ framework. Whereas debates raged over tax cuts and offensive tweets, the most important story was typically obscured: The system itself was in danger.” • In actual fact, America, though deeply provincial, is certainly distinctive:

We’re engaged in an enormous social experiment to see whether or not an elite (ruling + governing lessons) can “cull the herd” in six-figure portions, and nonetheless retain hegemony (TINA); the Covid pandemic is just the most recent and most blatant instance. Up to now, the reply appears to be sure, and even “Hell, yeah!” Considered in that mild, is “the system” “in danger” in any respect?

“On the marketing campaign path, many Republicans discuss of violence” [WaPo]. “Each candidates described a rustic that was not merely in bother, however being destroyed by leaders who despise most People — successfully a part of a civil battle. In each swing states and protected seats, many Republicans say that liberals hate them personally[1] and will flip rioters or a police state[2] on individuals who disobey them.” • NOTES [1] Are they mistaken? [2] A police state? Democrats?! Commentary:

“Is Democracy Constitutional?” [Adam Serwer, The Atlantic]. “In Moore v. Harper, North Carolina Republicans are arguing that no different state physique, together with the state supreme court docket, has the ability to limit the legislature’s means to set voting guidelines—particularly ones permitting legislators to gerrymander the state, in defiance of a ruling by the state supreme court docket discovering that their plan violated the state constitutional modification guaranteeing the suitable to vote. This perception is predicated on a crank authorized premise referred to as the ‘independent-state-legislature concept.” Feels like one thing John C. Calhoun would love. Extra: “The independent-state-legislature concept has drawn quite a lot of consideration for its most radical potential utility, the potential of a legislature voting to throw out its state’s presidential-election outcomes and appointing electors to favor the candidate of its selection…. If the Supreme Courtroom upholds the independent-state-legislature concept, it should deprive the general public of yet one more technique of defending itself. For the get together that appoMinted the vast majority of the justices, that may be superb.”

“The English Vocabulary and the Way forward for Capitalism” [Capital as Power]. “Blair [Fix] compares [here] using financial versus biblical vocabularies. He exhibits (1) that, within the English language, the ‘jargons’ of the 2 vocabularies are virtually mutually unique; (2) that, traditionally, the relative significance of those two jargons moved kind of inversely to one another; and (3) and most surprisingly, that within the late twentieth century, the significance of biblical jargon began to rise whereas that of economics started to say no (first determine). If this newest inflection is a harbinger of future developments, Blair argues, we’d have already handed ‘peak capitalism’. Commentary:

Seems like yet one more instance of a “What the heck occurred within the mid-70s?” chart….

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“Proper-wing group is quietly conducting assessment of 300,000 Tarrant County ballots from 2020 major” [Texas Tribune]. “Round 40 volunteers with a conservative group questioning the integrity of Texas election outcomes, in addition to that of some election directors, have begun a assessment of 1000’s of ballots from Tarrant County’s March 2020 GOP major election…. Members are particularly counting votes within the Republican major for U.S. Senate, during which Sen. John Cornyn received with 73% of the vote in Tarrant County over his closest challenger, who received 13% of the county’s votes. The group additionally alleges a variety of fraudulent actions associated to the 2020 November common election in Tarrant and different counties throughout the state however has supplied no proof to assist the allegations.” • It’s good that ballots are public information in Texas. However be aware that if the ballots have been hand-marked and hand-counted in public, the adminstrative burden Tarrant County complains of can be eradicated. So would any doubt about election outcomes.

#COVID19

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• I’ll have extra to say about airplane air sooner or later. Right here’s a teaser:

• Your library may do that:


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In case you missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) take into account most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we’ve.

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Case Rely

Case depend for america:

The practice remains to be rolling. There was a bizarre, plateau-like “fiddling and diddling” stage earlier than the Omicron explosion, too. This conjuncture feels the identical. Below the hood the BA.4/BA.5 are making up a better and better proportion of instances. Do not forget that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier depend was ~122,150. Right now, it’s ~129,000 and 129,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 774,000 per day. That’s fairly loads of instances per day, when you consider it. At the least we’ve affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

Regional case depend for 4 weeks:

The South:

A gradual upswing in the remainder of the south, beneath the Florida and Texas gyrations.

The West:

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, July 19:

1.1%. Up. (I’m wondering if there’s a Keynesian Magnificence Contest impact, right here; that’s, if individuals encounter a sympotomatic particular person, whether or not of their social circle or in regular exercise, they’re extra more likely to get a check, as a result of they consider, accurately, that it’s extra possible they are going to be contaminated.) What we’re seeing right here is the steepest and largest acceleration of positivity on Walgreen’s chart.

Lambert right here: I’m depressed. Walgreens has been so nice, and now this knowledge isn’t updating. What provides?

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most actually not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you. For July 21, 2020:

Establishment, i.e. it’s a completely not-over pandemic.

Lambert right here: After the transfer from the CDC to the laughingly named ‘https://healthdata.gov,” this discover appeared: “Efficient June 22, 2022, the Neighborhood Profile Report will solely be up to date twice per week, on Wednesdays and Fridays.” So now the administration has belatedly come to the conclusion that we’re in a BA.5 surge, and but important knowledge for making our private danger evaluation is just out there twice per week. What’s the over/below on whether or not they really ship tomorrow?

Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), July 26:

Worse in California and Upstate New York (what’s up with that). Higher in Texas. Establishment elsewere.

Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:

Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), July 26:

Plenty of yellow. Haven’t seen so little inexperienced (good) in fairly a while.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Further sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), July 10:

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 9 (Nowcast off):

BA.5 shifting alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), Jul 23:

I discovered this chart onerous to learn, so I filtered the output to the very best ranges (considerably like Fast Riser Counties, see on right here). What’s seen is that loads of cities are in bother; however that protection is de facto patchy. Illinois, for instance, has at all times had loads of protection, however the dots cease on the Illinois border. This chart works a bit like fast riser counties: “This metric exhibits whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a website are presently greater or decrease than previous historic ranges on the similar website. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the website; 100% means ranges are the very best they’ve been on the website.” So, there’s a bunch of crimson dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so meaning “ranges are the very best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.

Deaths

Loss of life price (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,052,935 1,052,467. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a pleasant, easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US-made capital items rose 1.9 p.c from a month earlier in June of 2022, probably the most since January and the fourth consecutive month-to-month improve. Figures beat market forecasts for a 0.5 p.c lower in an indication that enterprise spending plans stay sturdy up to now regardless of greater rates of interest and inflation.”

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The Bezzle: “Dashcam repo” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. If you would like a motto for the present financial scenario, a touchstone to test in on everytime you hear a few new enterprise mannequin or a brand new depredation, I counsel Michael Hudson’s bedrock declare: “Money owed that may’t be paid, received’t be paid.” 40 years of wage stagnation, mixed with spiraling well being, housing and training prices have produced a mountain of unpayable money owed. Our society is organized round a small variety of collectors extracting rents from an ever-growing pool of debtors whose means to pay is eroded by each penalty and each emergency triggered by the shortage of a cushion: Enter the digital arm-breaker. Networked, digital objects make arm-breaking cheaper and simpler than ever, remodeling the artisinal, private craft of terrorizing debtors right into a mass-scale industrial exercise. Miss a automobile cost? Possibly that automobile has a second, remote-controlled stereo that blares offended calls for at you wherever you go: https://version.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/wayoflife/04/17/aa.payments.shut.engine.down/index.html Or possibly the seller can immobilize it, disabling the ignition system: https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/ Or possibly it’s a Tesla, which can lock and immobilize itself and sign the seller, then, when the repo man arrives, will flash its lights, honk its horn and again out of its parking place to ease repossession: https://tiremeetsroad.com/2021/03/18/tesla-allegedly-remotely-unlocks-model-3-owners-car-uses-smart-summon-to-help-repo-agent/ Algorithms can automate the arm-breaker’s inventive sadism.” • A must-read.

Tech: “Google’s Nest Will Present Information to Police And not using a Warrant” [PetaPixel]. • That’s good.

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Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 37 Concern (earlier shut: 38 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 27 at 1:20 PM EDT.

Zeitgeist Watch

“Pretend Canine for Dwelling Safety” [Tanner]. “I arrange a pretend canine that barks if my surveillance cameras are triggered whereas I’m out of city on trip. It’s a pair of laptop audio system plugged right into a Raspberry Pi, which is an affordable single-board laptop. One speaker faces the entrance door and the opposite faces the facet door. When the entrance door digital camera is triggered my surveillance digital camera system sends a message to the Raspberry Pi. A easy program performs an audio clip of a giant canine barking via the facet speaker after which the entrance speaker. The change in audio system simulates a canine shifting in the direction of the entrance door. The other occurs if the facet door digital camera is triggered….”

Guillotine Watch

“Brooklyn pastor says he and his spouse have been robbed of greater than $1 million in jewellery whereas preaching” [CNN]. “A flashy Brooklyn pastor recognized for sporting designer outfits and lavish jewellery says he was robbed alongside together with his spouse of greater than $1 million whereas he was preaching at church Sunday. Police say they acquired a report that three individuals entered the Leaders of Tomorrow church Sunday with firearms and eliminated the jewellery pastor Lamor Miller-Whitehead, who goes by Bishop, and his spouse have been sporting.” • I feel Jesus would have authorised.

Information of the Wired

“Assist choose a syntax for CSS nesting” [Chrome Developers]. Not only for Chrome! Seems to me like the unique CSS is extra clear. However builders love them their squiggly brackets… Any CSS professionals within the readership with views?

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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Beez:

Beez writes: “2 in 1. Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation!” And: “Lambert! We’re in luck. Connected is a Coral Fungi! Not as shiny as some photos but encapsulates fungi & coral in a single. Clavarioid fungi, colloquially Coral Fungi. Eucalyptus Ironbark flower in foreground amongst leaf litter. NSW Australia.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the lately concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on ship a test. Thanks!

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