By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Hen Track of the Day

Western Chat-Tanager, Pueblo Viejo, Dominican Republic

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Biden Administration

“Joe Biden’s Greatest Week Ever” [New York Magazine]. “The scenario has modified with astonishing pace. Biden has salvaged his domestic-policy agenda, his social gathering’s base has snapped out of its torpor, and the economic system is exhibiting indicators it simply would possibly pull via. And whereas not all these developments are his personal doing, nor do they utterly extinguish the political hazard he faces, all of them redound to his profit. Within the span of some weeks, Biden’s presidency is again from the lifeless and looking out one thing near triumphant. The occasion that triggered the turnaround was the choice by 5 Republican Supreme Courtroom justices to overturn Roe v. Wade. In so doing, the Courtroom’s proper wing disregarded the recommendation of its extra cautious chief justice, John Roberts, who reportedly tried in useless to steer his colleagues towards an incrementalist technique that will keep away from a backlash. Roberts’s fears have been vindicated. One purpose midterm elections virtually at all times punish the president’s social gathering is that the general public has an intuition to curtail the powers of these in energy. The Dobbs determination inverted that calculation, making a context by which Republicans had been answerable for dramatic social change and Democrats may stand for the restoration of the established order.” • Possibly. We’ll see how the Capitol Seizure, Mar-a-Lago Raid, and Ukraine — bear in mind Ukraine? — play out together with abortion.

“Scoop: White Home to flow into Afghanistan memo defending U.S. withdrawal” [Axios]. • Biden requested for my vote together with his Afghanstan withdrawal. Then he squandered it with Ukraine. Ah effectively, nonetheless….

“First girl Dr. Jill Biden exams optimistic for Covid-19” [CNN]. • Effectively, the Bidens masks at finest inconsistently. Additional, I’ve not seen any data on air flow within the White Home, notably HEPA filters (although once more, and once more, inviting Corsi and Rosenthal in to assemble certainly one of their bins, hopefully on nationwide tv, would do wonders for good air flow. One can solely marvel why the Administration doesn’t do that).

“The Untold Historical past of the Biden Household” [The New Yorker]. • That is terribly unhappy, and helps clarify not simply Joe Biden, Junior, however Hunter. It’s like A.A. on the size of the Oresteia, over a number of generations, with a number of households. Effectively value a learn.

2022

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PA: “Fetterman Reboots US Senate Marketing campaign After Stroke-Induced Hiatus” [Bloomberg]. “Fetterman walked on stage Friday to a rousing applause from about 1,350 supporters, jam-packed in an Erie exhibition middle as “Again in Black” by rock group AC/DC blared via audio system. The Pennsylvania lieutenant governor had been sidelined for 3 months after struggling a stroke in mid-Might. Sporting his trademark black hoodie, sleeves rolled as much as reveal his tattooed forearms, Fetterman spoke extra softly and intentionally than he did in the course of the main, sometimes slurring phrases throughout a quick 12-minute deal with. ‘I’m simply so grateful and so fortunate,’ Fetterman stated. ‘Three months in the past, I could not have made it. However now I’m standing proper right here in Erie. You’ll ship for us, and I’ll ship Pennsylvania for us, and I’ll clear the 51st vote within the Senate.’ Fetterman’s rally got here simply days earlier than Monday’s deadline for a candidate to drop out of the race and his social gathering to interchange him on the poll. The occasion marked a public rebooting of a marketing campaign that was largely restricted to Fetterman’s residence — main Oz to mock him with a day by day ‘basement tracker’ that ended Thursday after 91 days. ‘Wait, am I in Erie?’ Fetterman stated as he took the stage together with his spouse Gisele by his facet. ‘Or have I received 1,400 individuals in my basement?’”

PA: Level:

PA: Counterpoint:

One mortal lock from the PA main: Fetterman’s social media crew will have the ability to identify their very own worth. (I feel the principle perform of their sensible work has been to maintain the Beltway press occupied, in order that they haven’t gone into “pull the wings off flies” mode whereas Fetterman recovered. However that’s under no circumstances neglible.)

WY: “From Cheney good friend to foe, Harriet Hageman takes command of Wyoming race animated by Trump” [Politics]. “‘I do know Wyoming. I really like Wyoming. I’m Wyoming,’ Hageman tells audiences as she travels throughout her state, getting into the closing days of a bitter Republican duel in one of many highest-profile congressional races within the nation. ‘I’m going to reclaim Wyoming’s lone congressional seat from that Virginian who at present holds it,’ Hageman likes to say, casting apart the Cheney household’s deep roots within the state and suggesting the three-term congresswoman is extra at residence within the Washington suburbs. Nowadays, indicators of hassle for Cheney are simple to identify right here in Wyoming. Hageman holds a commanding lead within the last weekend of a main election that stands as yet one more reminder of the Republican Celebration’s evolution within the period of Donald Trump.

A College of Wyoming ballot launched this week discovered that Cheney is trailing Hageman by 29 factors. But one query looming over the Republican main is what number of Democrats and independents will change events and vote for Cheney, which even her supporters acknowledge is her solely probability to remain aggressive. ‘If it’s a giant Republican vote, there aren’t sufficient Democrats to alter it, even when all of us crossed over,’ former Wyoming Gov. Mike Sullivan stated in an interview Friday, noting that he’s among the many Democrats who’ve briefly switched events to help Cheney. ‘Out of honor and respect for her management, I forged my vote her approach.’” • Cheney will do superb. I’m nonetheless betting Cheney-Zelensky would be the new Joe and Mika in 2024.

2024

“5 US States Will Determine If the 2024 Election Can Be Stolen” [Bloomberg]. “Trump and his loyalists are supporting individuals who deny the outcomes of the 2020 election for governor in 5 key states this fall, greater than sufficient to tilt a detailed 2024 presidential race away from the duly elected winner. Tight races this November in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and a attainable Republican win in Pennsylvania, will decide who’s accountable for making election choices in states the place the White Home is gained or misplaced. In all 5 of those states, Trump and his backers tried to overturn the outcomes.” • Presumably the Democrats are giving their all to win these states….

“Donald Trump’s subsequent transfer” [Unherd]. “However what has confused liberals for the entire of the Trump period is that nearly each mortal authorized arrow they’ve shot at him has had the other of its meant impact. They haven’t even hobbled him. They’ve solely ever enlarged the Trump story, creating new choices for him, extra devoted supporters, and an ever-grander battlefield. Most instantly, the FBI search — the ‘assault’ in Trump phrases — has grow to be for Trump’s household, interior circle, and MAGA-aligned candidates, a prod to get him to declare his presidential run. It’s the persistent state of even the closest Trumpers to know no extra about what he’ll or gained’t do or when than anybody else — ‘the king of optionality,’ stated one aide lately, with each admiration and annoyance. Certainly, to their frustration, Trump has reverted to his lengthy historical past of toying with presidential runs. Maybe, most truthfully, he has advised numerous aides he desires to place off an announcement for so long as attainable as a result of he doesn’t wish to work as exhausting as he’d must with a right away declaration. (Trump’s elementary laziness has by no means acquired its rightful due as a political consideration.)” • “Anybody who’s each intelligent and lazy is certified for the best management duties, as a result of he possesses the psychological readability and power of nerve needed for tough choices.” —Kurt Freiherr von Hammerstein-Equord

“Editorial: Why would an ex-president who doesn’t learn need bins of paperwork at his residence?” [St Louis Dispatch]. • These paperwork aren’t for studying. They’re for buying and selling.

WV: “‘Shocked and disheartened’: How coal nation is reacting to Manchin’s local weather deal” [The Hill]. “Coal nation” is just not coal companies! And this tidbit: “[I]t’s not clear whether or not deep-red West Virginia will embrace Manchin’s local weather deal, provided that his recognition soared across the time that he advised Democrats he couldn’t help the $2 trillion Construct Again Higher Act. From the primary quarter of 2021 to 2022, Manchin’s approval score shot up 17 factors to 57 %, the most important enhance amongst all senators over that interval, in response to Morning Seek the advice of. Almost 7 in 10 West Virginia Republicans expressed help for the Democratic senator as he railed in opposition to his personal social gathering’s spending package deal.”

Republican Funhouse

Tulsi Gabbard eviscerates Kamala Harris:

Fairly a expertise.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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Trump Legacy

“30 Issues Donald Trump Did as President You May Have Missed” [Politico]. “Many Individuals will bear in mind President Donald Trump’s presidency as a four-yearlong storm of tweets, rallies and on-air rants that resulted in a mob riot and historic second impeachment. However there was extra to the Trump presidency than attention-hogging political drama and battle; usually unnoticed, Trump and his administration truly did reach altering a number of the methods Washington works. From imposing a ban on Chinese language-made drones to rolling again guidelines on sexual harassment, from cracking down on robocalls to letting states legalize marijuana, Trump modified some key areas of federal coverage in ways in which could have lasting impression effectively after he’s gone.” • Omitted: The CARES Act truly decreased poverty, Operation Warp Velocity, and no struggle with Russsia or China (nor Venezuela. although granted, Greedo was allowed to make a half-assed try).

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Hybrid Conference: What Wouldn’t it Take?” [Socialist Majority]. On this yr’s nationwide conference, by one who organized the final one. On the finish: “My recommendation is at all times: don’t let excellent be the enemy of the great. If we can not have hybrid, which will simply be. However the NPC ought to create a prioritization checklist of what’s most vital to must make a good dedication. Selections aren’t at all times simple, however management requires it.” • The Nationwide Political Committee (NPC) is a a sixteen-person physique which capabilities because the board of administrators of DSA. For some definition of “capabilities”?

“The Medical Disaster that Lastly Satisfied Republicans in North Carolina to Develop Medicaid” [Politico]. “A lot of the counties within the state that has the best charges of uninsured residents are rural ones, in response to the North Carolina Rural Middle. Over time, Democrats and Republicans in these areas have come to acknowledge that full Medicaid growth would offer insurance coverage to individuals working in low-paying jobs reminiscent of development and quick meals, and assist preserve their struggling hospitals open. Final yr, 5 rural county commissions and the Japanese Band of Cherokee Indians handed resolutions supporting Medicaid growth. Dale Wiggins, a Republican commissioner in Kevin Corbin’s district, helped garner that help. ‘The truth that certainly one of my neighbors can’t afford to go to the physician, that’s asinine,’ Wiggins advised me final fall. ‘If we are able to spend all this cash on overseas support, we are able to make sure that we have now a wholesome inhabitants.’” • If we may cross out the outdated “overseas support” (minuscule) trope, and write in “The Blob” (ginormous), we’d get someplace…

#COVID19

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When you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) think about most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we have now.

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Case Rely

Case depend for the US:

Huge story is California.

Instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier depend was ~ 102,600. As we speak, it’s ~106,500 and 106,500 * 6 = a Biden line at 639,000 per day. That’s reasonably a variety of circumstances per day, when you concentrate on it. (Bear in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. A minimum of we have now affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. Nonetheless, I’m not seeing the amount of anecdotes I did on the Twitter. What are readers experiencing?

Regional case depend for 4 weeks:

The South:

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

Encouraging on Georgia and North Carolina. Apparently, South Carolina’s circumstances had been present in a drawer in spite of everything.

The West:

As a examine on the California case knowledge, right here is San Diego wastewater as of August 10 (a giant knowledge dump at this time):

We will see that case counts tracked wastewater properly beginning again in Fenruary 2021. As of ~July 15, 2022, they diverged. Why? (The identical can be true for Encina and South Bay, though the curves are formed in another way.) Do we have now any California wastewater experts who can observe down whether or not the identical is going on in different cities? (We want the case depend vs. wastewater comparability, not simply wastewater.) Is that this an attention-grabbing catch, or only a glitch?

UPDATE New knowledge, and the wastewater depend drops (although not in alignment in circumstances). San Diego is each a vacationer city, and near the Mexican border (i.e., employees come from over the border). The surge begins July 4 and peaks roughly August 1. There are a selection of occasions over that span — July Fourth Fireworks, Delight, ComicCon — I’m questioning if we may have noticed the primary peak within the wild the place the contaminated are vacationers, who don’t present up as circumstances or in hospitals? Readers, is that this believable?

NOTE To be honest, Santa Clara County covid figures are persistently down, rather more in keeping with the case knowledge. Ditto Los Angeles County (though CDC stories “no current knowledge” on its wastewater map; maybe CDC is attached to this venture from the California Division of Public Well being, the place there is no such thing as a Los Angeles knowledge charted after April 20 [bangs head on desk].) Neither have case knowledge comparisons.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, August 14:

-0.3%.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Some blue in flyover. Some orange in Maine, yellow in Nevada. Bettering!

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), August 10:

I’m virtually able to say “All is quiet.” Boy howdy, does that really feel bizarre. I suppose that if circumstances are certainly stage, it’s seemingly there can be few speedy risers.

Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), August 10:

Unstable. What’s up with the Northeast?

Lambert right here: When the minimize the frequency of those stories, they stated the stories would come out Wednesday and Friday. Ah effectively. Get pleasure from performing your weekend private threat assessments with out present knowledge.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does nevertheless it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Further sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), July 30:

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 23 (Nowcast off):

BA.5 transferring alongside properly. (Similar knowledge, however a structure I like higher, and I want CDC would cease altering the structure randomly.)

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), August 10:

For grins, August 8:

Lambert: I added gray. Gray, not on the legend at backside proper, is “No current knowledge.” How is there no current knowledge for New York Metropolis, a significant worldwide hub and already the epicenter of at the very least one surge? How is there none for upstate New York, which solely lately was filled with rapid-riser counties? The identical with West Virginia, Michigan, and Oregon. If I had been the paranoid kind, I’d theorize that CDC moved in on the one correct knowledge supply we’ve received, with a purpose to corrupt and destroy it.

Deaths

Loss of life fee (Our World in Knowledge):

Lambert right here: If actually the drop in circumstances is actual, as CDC appears to imagine, we should always begin seeing deaths, which lag, drop round September 1.

Complete: 1,062,770 – 1,061,346 = 1424 (365 * 1424 = 519,760; at this time’s LivingWith™ quantity. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like all the things else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

• Alert reader Deschain asks: “Is it simply me or do COVID deaths seem like a cup-and-handle formation?” I don’t know. Readers?

Stats Watch

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins in the US tumbled 9.6 % month-over-month to an annualized fee of 1.446 million items in July of 2022, the bottom since February of 2021 and effectively beneath market expectations of 1.54 million. The housing sector has been cooling down amid hovering costs of supplies and rising mortgage charges.” • Effectively, that ought to assist with the homeless scenario.

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Manufacturing in the US elevated 3.9 % year-on-year in July of 2022, the smallest annual achieve since January, and following a downwardly revised 4 % rise in June. Manufacturing manufacturing rose 3.2 %, mining 7.9 % and utilities 2.2 %.”

Manufacturing: “United States Capability Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capability utilization in the US elevated 0.4 proportion factors to 80.3% in July of 2022, barely above forecasts of 80.1% and 0.7 proportion factors above its long-run (1972–2021) common. Capability utilization for manufacturing elevated 0.5 proportion factors to 79.8%, 1.6 proportion factors above its long-run common.”

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The Bezzle: “Andreessen Horowitz Backs WeWork Co-Founder Adam Neumann’s Actual-Property Startup Circulation” [Wall Street Journal]. • Commentary:


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As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 56 Greed (earlier shut: 54 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 49 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 16 at 12:01 PM EDT. Mr. Market crusing on Darkish Brandon? Apparently so!

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. Nevertheless it simply can’t cross the vital psychological barrier of 190. As a substitute, it falls again.

The Gallery

The fashion jogs my memory of a New Yorker cartoon, again when the New Yorker wasn’t a grim tour of the PMC hive thoughts:

(To be honest, the Biden article above is excellent. Once in a while….)

The Conservatory

A self-indulgent return to my roots:

(The songwriter, Jesse Fuller.)

Zeitgeist Watch

“About one-in-five teenagers go to or use YouTube ‘virtually always’” [Pew Research]. • Useful chart:

“My Mother’s on FaceBook.”

Information of the Wired

“Discovering the medieval thoughts” [Times Literary Supplement]. The deck: “The case for a socially embedded self.” “The medieval self, [Barbara Newman] suggests, was inextricable from its connection to others: on this interval “the essence of personhood is the capability to be permeated by different selves, different individuals, with out being fractured by them”. At a time when our personal bodily porousness is clear – a lethal virus has proven simply how weak our insides are to everybody else’s, and mitigation efforts have made us really feel extra solitary and atomized than ever earlier than – a e book on how individuals of the previous thought of themselves in relation to others could be of specific curiosity.” • Hmm.

“How I Hacked my Automotive” [Programming with Style]. Some mild studying in your teenager. Greatest sentence, maybe: “Seems the encryption key in that script is the primary AES 128bit CBC instance key listed within the NIST doc SP800-38A.” “No, it may possibly’t be.”• However it’s, it’s. That is how we write software program.

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From j. appleseed:

j. appleseed writes: “Nearly to go as much as your neck of the woods on vacation (Spherical Pond close to Damariscotta), however I noticed these beautiful bracket fungi above Cranberry Pond in Sunderland, Mass. Presumably Hemlock Varnish Shelf aka Hemlock Reishi, genus Ganoderma? Maybe some educated reader can verify…” The background is slightly blown out, however the composition saves it. Readers?

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Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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