By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Hen Music of the Day

Summer time Tanager, Kerr Wildlife Administration Space, Texas, United States. This duet does sound summery. Very popular, very quiet, very nonetheless.

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“That they had discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Biden Administration

Elites infecting themselves with Covid (1):

I rely 11. Suppose 20% of the 11 get Lengthy Covid. That’s ~2 Cupboard members with mind injury. After all, in Becerra’s case it wouldn’t be noticeable, however what if the executives with impaired government perform are Austin and Blinken? (See right here at NC for a put up on this concern.)

Elites infecting themselves with Covid (2):

So, should you’re vaccinated, the idea is that you just don’t transmit [bangs head on desk]. Extra:

I’m betting on top-down technique — and the White Home is not the highest — and that elites actually consider they’re invulnerable.

* * *

“White Home solicits concepts on scholar debt reduction as Biden’s determination looms” [Politico]. • I’d go together with means-testing, complicated eligibility necessities, an extended phase-in interval, pay-fors, and a ceiling significantly lower than the overall debt “owed.”

2022

* * *

“Senate Management is a Toss Up, Ranking Modifications in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Utah” [Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report]. “Nightmares of Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock are taunting Republican lawmakers and Senate strategists as fears develop that this midterm cycle might be 2010 and 2012 another time. Plagued with weak, divisive candidates in lots of key races, the palpable trepidation amongst a dozen GOP insiders we spoke to is that — regardless of a good political local weather and historical past that exhibits they need to be capable of internet no less than one seat to interrupt the 50-50 logjam — their efforts to win again Senate management will fall brief whilst Republicans simply flip the Home. If that premonition comes true, it’d be deja vu to 12 years earlier, which might be the newest pro-Republican local weather that’s closest to how the previous 12 months has formed up for the GOP. Although Democrats suffered a “shellacking” and misplaced 63 seats in President Obama’s first midterm election, Republicans left winnable races on the desk, with Angle in Nevada, O’Donnell in Delaware and Ken Buck in Colorado unable to ship victories.”

“The Political Winds Swirl But Once more” [Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report]. “Whereas it was by no means seemingly that any single or perhaps a mixture of a number of points would overshadow the referendum nature of a midterm election, this midterm has abruptly begun to look much less typical. It nonetheless appears uncertain that issues have modified sufficient to avoid wasting the Democratic majority within the Home, however it’s believable that this might shave a half dozen or a dozen seats from the losses that they in any other case might need sustained. Within the Senate, issues have gotten way more attention-grabbing. A trio of sub-optimal candidates have dimmed a bit GOP hopes within the three most seen Senate races—Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. None of those races are over, however every appear like an uphill climb for Republicans, that means that one other trio has grow to be much more vital—Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado. In New Hampshire, there’s a lot driving on the Sept. 13 Republican major: Ought to state Senate President Chuck Morse prevail within the GOP major, Sen. Maggie Hassan may be anticipated to have a really tight race, but when retired Military Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc wins, Republican odds of taking the seat go down a good quantity. Republicans did nominate their extra typical and centrist candidate in Colorado, Joe O’Dea, making their lengthy shot bid to unseat Sen. Michael Bennet not fairly so long as earlier than.” • Hmm….

* * *

AK: “Murkowski advances in Alaska Senate race, Palin in Home” [Associated Press]. “Alaska Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski superior from her major together with Kelly Tshibaka, her GOP rival endorsed by former President Donald Trump, whereas one other Trump-backed candidate, Republican Sarah Palin, was among the many candidates sure for the November normal election within the race for Alaska’s solely Home seat. Murkowski had expressed confidence that she would advance and earlier within the day informed reporters that ‘what issues is profitable in November.’ Tshibaka referred to as the outcomes ‘step one in breaking the Murkowski monarchy’s grip on Alaska.’ Tshibaka additionally mentioned she was grateful ‘for the robust and unwavering assist President Trump has proven Alaska.’ A Murkowski has held the Senate seat since 1981. Earlier than Lisa Murkowski, who has been within the Senate since late 2002, it was her father, Frank Murkowski. Beneath a voter-approved elections course of getting used for the primary time in Alaska elections this 12 months, get together primaries have been scrapped and ranked alternative voting is getting used typically elections. The highest 4 vote-getters in a major race, no matter get together affiliation, are to advance to the overall election.” • Attention-grabbing on RCV.

PA: Wut.

I do know that the extra lucky sharing the wealth with the much less lucky is a time-honored custom, however Seth Moulton may as effectively be Conor Lamb.

PA: Phrases of the Grasp:

PA: Extra Wegner’s fallout:

Possibly Oz’s workers is all from New Jersey….

PA: ‘Prepare dinner Political Report shifts Pennsylvania Senate race to ‘lean Democrat’” [The HIll]. “Its replace on the Pennsylvania race additionally comes even supposing Oz has former President Trump’s endorsement for a seat presently held by a Republican, retiring Sen. Pat Toomey. Moreover, Oz has had extra time to satisfy with voters on the path than Fetterman, who suffered a stroke earlier this 12 months.”

WI: “How this populist Democrat is taking over Ron Johnson in Wisconsin” [The Hill]. “Democrats have gone all-in on Mandela Barnes, the state’s 35-year-old lieutenant governor, to oust Republican Sen. Ron Johnson (Wis.) as a part of their keep-the-Senate technique this fall. Critics suppose it can take rather a lot to see that seat flip blue. Skeptical optimists name it a toss-up. However others see a nation in financial hardship over inflation, a myriad of GOP scandals and a flawed, unpopular opponent as encouragement that the purple battleground may truly ship Barnes a victory….. Democrats in Washington have leaned into Barnes’s apparent progressive streak. He’s in opposition to company PAC cash and is for Medicare for All and environmental protections by the use of a Inexperienced New Deal that’s tailor-made to Wisconsin’s priorities. He’s additionally backed by liberal Senate heavyweights, Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), whose ranks he hopes to hitch, and a slew of grassroots organizations. Notably, Barnes has additionally secured assist from Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.), who endorsed early within the race.” • Ah, Clyburn.

WY: “Within the Methods That Depend, Liz Cheney Received” [Frank Bruni, New York Times]. “Come January, she is going to not be Consultant Cheney as a result of she represents steadfast precept in an period with a devastating deficit of it. Historical past will smile on her for that…. I don’t imply to idealize her an excessive amount of — simple to do, given the cowardice of so many others in her get together. She’s not some paragon of altruism, and some conservatives I respect rolled their eyes when she first separated herself from the Home pack to denounce Trump in probably the most sweeping phrases doable. They sensed that she had inherited Dick Cheney’s conceitedness. They suspected that her motives included grandstanding. They rightly augured that she’d grow to be extra of a political superstar in exile than she would by taking part in alongside, they usually guessed that she was making that calculation. However there might be no dispute, no less than not amongst trustworthy and smart patriots, in regards to the correctness of her positions on Trump, on her get together’s fealty to him and on the peril that he poses to the way forward for American democracy.” • Commentary:

2024

“DOJ battles in courtroom to maintain Mar-a-Lago warrant particulars secret” [Politico]. “The federal decide who licensed the search warrant of former President Donald Trump’s personal residence is listening to arguments on Thursday over whether or not to launch the affidavit that particulars the Division of Justice’s rationale for the unprecedented search. Whereas the affidavit is unlikely to be launched publicly, Justice of the Peace Decide Bruce Reinhart is anticipated to debate the warrant for the primary time for the reason that FBI searched Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property and seized greater than a dozen containers of paperwork, together with categorized data. Even when he opts in opposition to releasing it, Reinhart, who has seen the affidavit and located it created possible trigger for the search, might present perception in regards to the doc’s contents. A wide selection of media organizations has requested Reinhart to unseal the affidavit, citing the extraordinary public curiosity, however proposing redactions as essential to guard the integrity of the investigation. Justice Division prosecutors have argued that the redactions would should be so intensive as to render the affidavit ineffective.”

“FBI search cements Trump’s maintain on GOP” [The Hill]. “[T]hose near Trump consider the search and subsequent outcry make it even likelier he would be the Republican nominee in 2024…. A Politico-Morning Seek the advice of ballot launched final Thursday discovered that 57 % of Republican and Republican-leaning independents would vote for Trump if the 2024 major had been held immediately, up from 53 % a month in the past. In that very same timespan, DeSantis misplaced 6 share factors of assist. DeSantis is among the many potential 2024 challengers to Trump whose ambitions might briefly be put in verify due to the FBI raid. The Florida governor, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and others who’re thought of doable presidential candidates have been compelled to briefly drop any refined campaigns to focus on variations with Trump in favor of decrying the FBI search as an abuse of energy.”

“Trump Is Again on the Poll” [David Frum, The Atlantic]. “Large-money Republicans hoped that 2022 can be the 12 months the GOP quietly sidelined Trump. These hopes have been fading all 12 months, as excessive and unstable pro-Trump candidates have triumphed in major after major. Their final greatest hope was that the reelection of Ron DeSantis as governor of Florida would painlessly shoulder Trump out of competition for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Now that hope, too, is dying. DeSantis ran in 2018 as a craven Trump sycophant. He had 4 years to grow to be his personal man. He battled tradition wars—even turning in opposition to his former backers at Disney—all to show himself the snarling alpha-male bully that Republican major voters reward. However for the reason that Mar-a-Lago search, DeSantis has dropped again into the beta-male function, sidekick and cheering part for Trump. Trump has reasserted dominance. DeSantis has submitted. And if Republican presidential politics within the Trump period has one rule, it’s that there’s no restoration from submission. Roll over as soon as, and you can not get again in your ft once more.”

Republican Funhouse

Irritable psychological gestures:

I haven’t had time to trace down the provenance, however I can effectively consider this isn’t parody.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Trump Derangement Syndrome Returns” [Margaret Kimberly, Black Agenda Report]. “Worse than the foolish Trump impressed derangement is the way in which that those that name themselves left or progressive have chosen to defend federal legislation enforcement and unhealthy laws just like the Espionage Act. The Espionage Act is a relic from the earliest days of the chilly conflict, and Woodrow Wilson’s notorious Palmer Raids which focused the left for persecution and prosecution. Barack Obama used it greater than all earlier presidents mixed so as to prosecute journalists who revealed what the state didn’t need us to know. As for the FBI, its Counter Intelligence Program, COINTELPRO, created dissension within the liberation motion, focused people for prosecution, spied on Martin Luther King and informed him to commit suicide, and killed Fred Hampton and Mark Clark amongst others. The FBI continues to make use of informants to entrap Black individuals in phony terror circumstances.”

#COVID19

Lambert right here: The choice on the right way to deal with the Coronavirus pandemic has turned out to be that advocated by the Nice Barrington Declaration crowd of democidal loons: Let ‘er rip. It appears moderately clear that this collective determination on behalf of society wasn’t made at any degree of “our democracy,” however…. larger up, by an elite that hates masking, thinks capsules and injections may give them invulnerability, and likes to socialize at conferences and different such superspreading occasions. The “let me see your smile” perspective comes from the highest.

“Bharat Biotech completes medical improvement for part III trials and booster doses for BBV154 intranasal covid vaccine” (press launch) [Bharat Biotech]. Key level: “Information from each Part III human medical trials have been submitted for approval to Nationwide Regulatory Authorities.” • Press launch from August 15. This complete course of has appeared, to me, to go as sluggish as molasses. Maybe resistance from different producers?

* * *

Walensky’s Biggest Hits:

Walensky ought to have resigned when she noticed that memo.

* * *

“Oklahoma college closes as a result of COVID-19 circumstances” [KFOR]. ““On account of an more and more excessive variety of optimistic covid checks for each college students and workers, we’re compelled to shut for this week to permit time for everybody to get higher and never proceed to unfold the virus,” Mannsville Superintendent Brandi Worth-Kelty posted on Fb.”

“OU Well being officers anticipate COVID surge as soon as Oklahoma college students return to high school subsequent week” [KFOR]. “This week’s COVID numbers within the state counsel circumstances have gone down, however now as college students head again to high school as early as subsequent week, College of Oklahoma Well being medical doctors predict a spike in COVID circumstances throughout Oklahoma, they usually say it will probably come quick…. Masks are welcome and inspired, plus colleges nonetheless have enhanced cleansing protocols in place. ‘All of our buildings and each area within the constructing has an air ionization system that filters and cleans the air. And in order that’s in lecture rooms, in group areas, in cafeterias. So, all over the place inside a college constructing and likewise within the workplace buildings,’ mentioned Courtney Scott, Government Director of Communications at [Oklahoma City Public Schools (OKCPS)].” • Oh gawd. Cleansing surfaces, and a few scumbag bought the general public colleges ionizers (right here, right here) [bangs head on desk].

* * *

A private threat evaluation:

You’d really want an app for this. And a telephone with sensors?

* * *

In case you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) take into account most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers now we have.

* * *

Case Depend

Case rely for america:

In the present day’s story is the South.

Circumstances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true degree of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~ 109,200. In the present day, it’s ~ 99,800 and 99,800 * 6 = a Biden line at 598,800 per day. First case rely under (nominal) 100,000 for a very long time. (Bear in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so each day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.)

Regional case rely for 4 weeks:

The South:

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

Encouraging on North Carolina. Tennessee did in reality have knowledge points, however now Kentucky is up (flood shelters?).

The West:

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, August 15:

-0.4%.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Bettering!

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), August 17:

I suppose that if case counts are certainly degree, it’s seemingly there can be few fast risers.

Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), August a7:

Fairly calm on the hospital entrance. In case you’re CDC, and that’s all that issues to you — as a result of Lengthy Covid isn’t a factor, and everyone who is actually sick can get to a hospital — you’re in all probability feeling good proper now.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does nevertheless it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), August 6:

Full takeover by BA.5/BA.4. I ponder what’s coming subsequent?

Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 23 (Nowcast off):

BA.5 shifting alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), August 14:

For grins, August 13:

Seems unchanged. What I’m actually anxious about is a rise in gray dots, as a result of that might imply the system is being shut down..

Lambert right here: I added gray to orange and pink. Gray, not on the legend at backside proper, is “No latest knowledge.” How is there no latest knowledge for New York Metropolis, a serious worldwide hub and already the epicenter of no less than one surge? How is there none for upstate New York, which solely not too long ago was stuffed with rapid-riser counties? The identical with West Virginia, Michigan, and Oregon. If I had been the paranoid kind, I’d theorize that CDC moved in on the one correct knowledge supply we’ve received, so as to corrupt and destroy it.

Deaths

Dying price (Our World in Information):

Lambert right here: If in reality the drop in circumstances is actual, as CDC appears to consider, we must always begin seeing deaths, which lag, drop round September 1.

Complete: 1,064,207 – 1,063,087 = 1120 (365 * 1120 = 408,800; immediately’s LivingWith™* quantity. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, each day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job. NOTE * Maybe YouGenix™ can be higher? Sounds friendlier, someway.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting new claims for unemployment profit fell by 2,000 to 250,000 the week that ended August thirteenth, effectively under expectations of 265,000.”

Manufacturing: “United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index within the US rose to six.2 in August of 2022 from -12.3 in July, returning to optimistic territory after two consecutive damaging readings and above market expectations of -5. Though the overall exercise index turned optimistic, it was low, and the brand new orders index remained damaging. The employment index elevated, whereas the worth indexes continued to say no however remained elevated.”

* * *

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 54 Impartial (earlier shut: 55 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 52 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 18 at 1:39 PM EDT.

The Gallery

Possibly this could have gone below Zeitgeist Watch:

Information of the Wired

Maybe I ought to do starlings subsequent?


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Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From RM:

RM writes: “I rode in to my buddy’s place in Butte, Montana and located this one snacking out on the flowers.”

* * *

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Trump’s Alternative to Reset U.S.-Iran Relations





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