2:00PM Water Cooler 8/22/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Music of the Day

California Thrasher, Mission Trails Regional Park, San Diego, California, United States. “Singing from Laurel Sumac in coastal sage scrub habitat.”

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. Pictures fired, as Biden consigliere Anita Dunn lets unfastened on her means out.
2. Coach, coach, coach! .
3. Trump steps exterior the bulletproof glass to test on a fainting crowd member.
4. On euphemisms.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than 100 days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

There is no good news here for Trump. The deterioration in both Pennsylvania and Georgia is especially marked. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads — are within the margin of error. So the “joy” is based on, well, vibes.

Biden Defenestration:

Senior Biden Advisor Anita Dunn, also defenestrated, lets loose:

“Leave the Dunn. Take the cannoli” [Politico] (August 20, 2024). At a White House gathering honoring her: “A group of senior advisers had just entered the room with the event in full swing — among them chief of staff JEFF ZIENTS, deputy chief of staff NATALIE QUILLIAN and national security adviser ELIZABETH SHERWOOD-RANDALL. Moments later, Dunn surprised people by announcing that she had ‘a few more things to say.’ Pulling out some notes, Dunn proceeded to speak in blunt terms for roughly 10 minutes, according to five people who were in the room, about themes that, to some, seemed laden with subtext: loyalty, revenge and advice from a career in bare-knuckle politics.

‘It was crazy — the most epic, jaw-dropping speech I’ve ever heard,’ one attendee told West Wing Playbook. “This was talked about for days.’ …. To understand how to succeed in Washington — to understand the use of power, she said, was to know ‘The Godfather.’

Having spent a good part of her final days on campus meeting with younger staffers looking for career advice, Dunn offered a few pearls of wisdom from the film for those in the room. ‘Never hate your enemies,’ she said. ‘It clouds your judgment.’ ‘Revenge is a dish best served cold,’ she continued, underlining the point that paying back those who’ve wronged you could take months, even years…. It seemed like she was making a point, that her words may have been meant for some of the other senior aides who weren’t there,” another attendee said. Over the weekend that followed, two attendees said, many of them watched ‘The Godfather’ for the first time.” • Who, I wonder, was “college boy” Michael Corleone? And—

“Why Biden Was Really Forced Out of the Race, According to Anita Dunn” [Politico] (August 9, 2024). This factoid on the Biden/Trump debate caught my eye: [DUNN:] “I watched the debate at home. I watch it on dial groups. I watched the dials.” Wired up to the dials were a panel of ndecided voters. And: “When you watch dial groups, people are instructed to start at 50 on their dials. That is the neutral position. If they feel better, they turn it to the right and the numbers go up. And if they don’t like what they’re hearing, they turn it to the left and the numbers go down.” And: “It’s immediate feedback. But you also do a focus group before with a vote and you do a focus group after with a vote. And you hear people’s reactions. And so voters experience this differently. And one of the things that was interesting was that voters didn’t particularly like Biden’s performance in the first half hour. He wasn’t scoring well at all. But it’s not as though they walked out. They very much liked a lot of the second half of the debate for Joe Biden. They hated Donald Trump. By the end of this, the first part of the strategy had absolutely worked in that people were like, ‘Oh, I’d forgotten. I really don’t like this guy. He’s all about himself, he’s bragging.’ I mean, they really did not like him. So Trump didn’t gain any ground in the debate whatsoever. And we actually picked up a few votes in the group. So it was a bad debate, but it didn’t feel catastrophic at all, certainly in terms of voters. And I think other people who did independent research saw roughly the same thing. If you go back and you look at the polls, what you will see is you didn’t see much movement whatsoever coming out of the debate because the structure of this campaign had been fairly static for a long time, and the debate didn’t change that. What did change it was 24 days of unremitting negative, horrible attacks on Joe Biden.” • So it wasn’t simply delusion that made the Biden team hang on; it was instrumented delusion; they had data they trusted that backed up their views. However, we at NC also watched the debate, and if somebody had wired us up to a dial, our reaction — universally — when Biden slipped his cog (and Trump drove the knife home) would have been very different and, I think, more representative of the voters. It’s interesting to speculate why Dunn’s dials misled her so. The sample could have been bad, but Dunn is obviously a stone professional, so that’s unlikely. I’m sure that there’s a technical word for this, but clearly the panel knew they were wired up for the purpose of evaluating Biden, and perhaos the social norming that Biden was “sharp as a tack” was so strong that even if they thought that somebody should take Biden’s car keys away they couldn’t communicate that to a person in authority (note that the dials are moved by conscious choice, and not measure autonomous nervous system stuff(.

* * *

Democrat National Convention Vignettes:

Metaphor:

DNC attendees cover their ears as the names of dead Palestinian children are read as they leave the convention pic.twitter.com/9bueCbFeEr

— BreakThrough Information (@BTnewsroom) August 22, 2024

* * *

“Coach’s Clinic: Tim Walz Delivers Emotional, Energetic DNC Speech” [HuffPo]. “Conference-goers welcomed him with indicators that mentioned “Coach Walz” and chanted “Coach, coach, coach!” The Minnesota delegation even held huge cutouts of Walz’s face.” • Wowers. Perhaps highschool was the final time these individuals have been actually glad?

“Coach Walz: Win One for the Veeper” [The American Prospect]. “Simply as the highest banana of outdated vaudeville acts can be preceded on stage by a line of refrain women, Walz was preceded by the now middle-aged members of Mankato West Excessive College’s 1999 state champion soccer group, for whom Walz was defensive coordinator. Normie dads, some now means out of practice, led the best way for Coach Walz to take the stage and ship his distinctive normie American, good-neighbor, progressive Democrat acceptance speech. A few of it was tailored from the stump speech he’s been giving to nice impact across the nation. However it hit all the correct notes for a nationwide viewers. If all this normie-ness didn’t absolutely normalize Walz’s progressive achievements, he took care to tout not solely his enactment of paid sick go away and groundbreaking pro-union legal guidelines and common faculty breakfasts and lunches, but additionally, repeatedly, the middle-class tax cuts he signed into legislation as properly. Walz additionally spoke, greater than I’ve heard him achieve this earlier than, in his coach persona. There was a little bit of John Madden drawing play diagrams in his supply, and a contact of Pat O’Brien taking part in the sainted Knute Rockne in The Spirit of Notre Dame, telling Democrats to win one for—properly, not for the Gipper (who had been performed in that Thirties Warner Bros. movie by a younger Ronald Reagan)—however for Kamala, and the nation, and your youngsters.”

“A protest carnival produces little warmth in Chicago” [Semafor]. “The Coalition to March on the DNC began constructing Monday’s occasion final summer time, earlier than the Oct. 7 Hamas assault on Israel. By the point delegates arrived in Chicago, the march was nearly solely about American help for Israel’s battle. And the activists who wished to surrender on electoral politics, and demolish the Democrats, grew additional away from the activists attempting to deliver their occasion in line…. Code Pink, the Occasion for Socialism & Liberation, the Milwaukee Alliance In opposition to Racist and Political Repression, the Atlanta Alliance In opposition to Racist and Political Repression — the 270-odd teams that marched to the DNC safety perimeter have been united round chopping off army assist to the Jewish state. Some wished to abolish it altogether, dismantling one ‘settler-colonial’ nation on the best way to dismantling all of them. Contained in the conference, the three dozen uncommitted delegates, elected by anti-war protest voters, have been simply as targeted. However their calls for diverged. Democratic anti-war activists within the United Middle wished a direct ceasefire and an ‘arms embargo’ on Israel. The Biden administration was engaged on the primary, however unlikely to ship the second, and Harris had primarily dominated it out. ‘The Vice President’s group has been partaking,’ mentioned Abbas Alawieh, an uncommitted delegate from Michigan and frequent spokesman for the faction. ‘They’ve been listening. I discover that very encouraging. It’s positively a really huge change from after we have been attempting to have conversations with President Biden.’” • I don’t see 270 organizations as a energy. Fairly the reverse.

Trump:

Trump (R): Good thought, particularly if his content material spreads immediately on TikTok (which I presume the marketing campaign has organized):

Former President Trump says he’s doing a dwell play-by-play on Kamala Harris’s speech tonight, in addition to another speeches given on the Democratic Nationwide Conference.

He’s doing it on Reality Social. pic.twitter.com/cV1i9aVovo

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) August 22, 2024

The Democrat propaganda is making me a bit counter-suggestible, so: Within the firehose of “pleasure” it’s attainable for even me to neglect that Trump is, in reality, a formidable campaigner. 2016: Went by way of the Republican institution like a knife by way of butter, then beat Clinton. 2020: Wins however for Covid. 2024: Having rebuilt the Republican Occasion, for good or ailing, to be extra Trumpian, he then knocks the Democrat candidate out of the race in debate. From the 30,000-foot view, that’s not a nasty observe document. All this with the press, the spooks, and huge components of the justice system serving as arms of the Democrat Occasion. Now, I do assume he wants some re-adjustment of his schtick, however come on.

Trump (R): “Trump speaks from behind bulletproof glass at first outside rally since his tried assassination” [Associated Press]. “At his first outside rally since final month’s tried assassination, Donald Trump spoke from behind bulletproof glass Wednesday in North Carolina at an occasion targeted on nationwide safety.” • Swing state. Oddly, or not, Biden by no means did give RFK Secret Service safety. It’s nearly as if the Democrats have been in LIHOP mode. Oddly, AP doesn’t point out this incident–

Trump (R): “Trump steps exterior bulletproof glass to hug lady having a medical emergency in first outside rally for the reason that capturing” [Daily Mail]. “Trump was in mid flow at a rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, his first outdoor event since he survived an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. Suddenly, there was a commotion in the crowd and people could be heard shouting ‘Medic!’. Trump, who was talking about UFC and boxing, stopped and looked. He then said into the microphone: ‘A doctor, please…’” Video:

JUST IN: Donald Trump steps out from the bulletproof glass at his North Carolina rally to check on one of his supporters who passed out.

Today was Trump’s first outdoor rally since the assas*ination attempt at his PA rally on July 13.

Trump is giving the speech at the North… pic.twitter.com/xVCdTIxBif

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 21, 2024

Say what you want about Trump, he’s obtained brass ones. (Not, as I’ve mentioned, that braveness is a virture. Braveness is virtuous relying on the tip it serves. Nonetheless.)

Kennedy:

“RFK’s Operating Mate Nicole Shanahan: DNC “Turned Us Into A Spoiler,” Made A Honest Election Unattainable For Us” [RealClearPolitics]. Shanahan: “I did not put in tens of millions of dollars to be a spoiler candidate, I put in tens of millions of dollars to win and do the right things. ClearChoice, this DNC-aligned PAC that was created specifically to take us out, has spent millions of dollars to take us out. They have turned us into a spoiler. . We wanted a fair shot. The DNC made that impossible for us. They have banned us, shadowbanned us, kept us off stages, manipulated polls, used lawfare against us, sued us in every possible state, they’ve even planted insders into our campaign to disrupt it and create actual legal issues for us. . I really wanted a fair shot at this election, and I believed in the American that I pledged allegiance to as a little girl. And that is not where we are today, and it is not because of the Republican Party taking us out, it is the Democratic Party taking us out. And I am so disappointed I ever helped them, I am so disappointed I helped Chuck Schumer in that Georgia runoff, to secure the [Senate] majority. It is probably one of the biggest mistakes of my life.’ • I don’t disagree that the RFK campaign was in it to win it; getting on the ballot in as many states as they did was an extraordinary achievement.

* * *

MT:

Cannot overstate how huge this is for any Harris/Walz agenda. Without Jon Tester winning reelection and maintaining a Senate majority, all these encouraging domestic agenda items could die on the vine. https://t.co/UMFU6J803a

— Emma Vigeland (@EmmaVigeland) August 21, 2024

Marketing campaign Finance

“How Kamala Harris is successful over Wall Road” [CNN]. “However even earlier than Harris revealed key particulars of her platform, Roger Altman, founder and senior chairman of Evercore, informed CNBC final month that he helps Harris and that expects her marketing campaign to be ‘very properly financed.’ Blackstone president Jonathan Grey contributed $413,000 to the Harris Motion Fund on the finish of July, a supply acquainted with his giving informed CNN. Alex Soros, son of billionaire liberal donor George Soros, endorsed Harris in an X publish final month. George Soros additionally helps Harris, his spokesperson informed CNN. Avenue Capital Group CEO Marc Lasry donated $100K to the Harris Motion Fund in March, in accordance with Federal Election Fee information. Sonnenfeld, generally known as the ‘CEO Whisperer,’ argued that Harris’ stronger relationship with Wall Road in comparison with Biden’s is as a result of she toned down the ‘class warfare’ rhetoric and had a observe document as California legal professional common performing pretty — even when not overly favorably — with companies. ‘She went after abuses however . She is aware of that thriving companies are good for the financial system and the typical American employee,” Sonnenfeld mentioned. After all, some Wall Road bigwigs have made their help for Trump clear. Invoice Ackman, billionaire hedge fund supervisor and chief govt of Pershing Sq. Capital Administration, endorsed Trump as president in a July X publish. Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman mentioned in March that he’s backing the previous president’s bid. Key Sq. Group founder Scott Bessent is a supporter of Trump and attended his rally in Asheville, North Carolina.”

“Large Crypto, Large Spending: Crypto Firms Spend an Unprecedented $119 Million Influencing Elections” [Public CItizen]. “Crypto firms are by far the dominant company political spenders in 2024 as practically half (48%) of all company cash contributed throughout this 12 months’s elections ($248 million to date) got here from crypto backers.” • Cool, each events are financed by fraudsters. Which is smart.

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Democratic platform favors slate of smaller targets over a well being overhaul” [STAT]. “Gone are the times when Democrats bickered over wholesale reform of the American well being care system — together with Vice President Harris herself throughout the 2020 marketing campaign cycle.

As a substitute, their plan this election cycle evokes President Biden’s slogan to ‘end the job’ — although they’re operating a brand new candidate. With the notable exception of calling to erase medical debt by working with states, Democrats are largely eyeing marginal extensions or reinstatements of their prior coverage achievements.” • “Bickering.”

“Democrats Scrub Demise Penalty Opposition From Marketing campaign Platform” [HuffPo]. • Hmm. I ponder who former DA Kamala has in thoughts?

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: Value noting that nationwide Emergency Room admissions are as excessive as they have been within the first wave, in 2020.

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others will not be up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with scorching spots annotated. Retains spreading.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very talked-about. First exhibiting of the brand new variant from China, XDV.1 (although it didn’t seem in traveler’s information).

[4] (ER) Value noting Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Taking place. Doesn’t should be a everlasting factor, in fact. (The NY city space has type; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an essential entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, after which across the nation by way of air journey.)

Lambert right here: Since issues are unhealthy out on the West Coast, I went searching for California hospitalization information to match with New York’s, and found this: “Due to changes in reporting requirements for hospitals, CDPH is no longer including hospitalization data on the CDPH dashboard. CDPH remains committed to monitoring the severe outcomes of COVID-19 and influenza, including the impact on hospitals. CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) will remain open to accept data, and CDC and CDPH strongly encourage all facilities to continue reporting.” Thanks, Mandy!

“Euphemise this” [Aeon]. “What the cognitive psychologist and linguist Steven Pinker has artfully termed ‘the euphemism treadmill’ is not a tic or a stunt. It is an inevitable and, more to the point, healthy process, necessary in view of the eternal gulf between language and opinion. We think of euphemisms as one-time events, where one prissily coins a way of saying something that detracts from something unpleasant about it. That serves perfectly well as a definition of what euphemism is, but misses the point that euphemism tends to require regular renewal. This is because thought changes more slowly than we can change the words for it, and has a way of catching up with our new coinages. Since that is likely eternal, we must accept that we’ll change our terms just like we change our underwear, as a part of linguistic life in a civilised society…. A word, then, is like a bell tone, with a central pitch seasoned by overtones. As the tone fades away, the overtones can hang in the air. Words are similar, with opinion, assumption and, more to the point, bias as equivalents to the overtones. Crippled began as a sympathetic term. However, a sad reality of human society is that there are negative associations and even dismissal harboured against those with disabilities. Thus crippled became accreted with those overtones, so to speak, to the point that handicapped was fashioned as a replacement term free from such baggage.”

“What If Data Is a Bad Idea?” [Beyond the Frame]. “Data is inherently objectifying. This property is an asset when describing inert phenomenon such as the composition of soil or the properties of various metals. Data enables the applied work of engineers and there are no direct ethical considerations.There are plenty of systemic ethical considerations when using these resources. But that’s beyond the scope of this article. The problems become apparent when we start talking about people. Data cannot express a meaningful distinction between intelligent actors and the things they act upon; a database that tracks widget production can also store information about the people who buy those widgets. Databases then turn intelligent actors – who are often human beings – into things to be acted upon. This is where data can quickly become a ‘bad idea.’”

“1 in 4 Unresponsive People with Brain Injuries May Be Conscious” [Scientific American]. “At least one-quarter of people who have severe brain injuries and cannot respond physically to commands are actually conscious, according to the first international study of its kind.