By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, I’m going so as to add some extra below Politics, as a result of if I don’t catch up now, I by no means will! –lambert UPDATE Completed. I acquired absorbed and doubtless added an excessive amount of…

Chicken Tune of the Day

Purple Martin, Georgia, United States. Recording made in 1955! One other species of songbird.

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Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“That they had realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Biden Administration

“Opinion: Nancy Pelosi: Why I’m main a congressional delegation to Taiwan” [WaPo]. No suspense within the Put up “newsroom,” I see:

At present, America should keep in mind that vow. We should stand by Taiwan, which is an island of resilience. Taiwan is a frontrunner in governance: at the moment, in addressing the covid-19 pandemic and championing environmental conservation and local weather motion. It’s a chief in peace, safety and financial dynamism: with an entrepreneurial spirit, tradition of innovation and technological prowess which are envies of the world.

But, disturbingly, this vibrant, strong democracy — named one of many freest on the earth by Freedom Home and proudly led by a lady, President Tsai Ing-wen — is below menace.

Lately, Beijing has dramatically intensified tensions with Taiwan. The Individuals’s Republic of China (PRC) has ramped up patrols of bombers, fighter jets and surveillance plane close to and even over Taiwan’s air protection zone, main the U.S. Protection Division to conclude that China’s military is “seemingly getting ready for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by pressure.”

The PRC has additionally taken the struggle into our on-line world, launching scores of assaults on Taiwan authorities companies every day. On the similar time, Beijing is squeezing Taiwan economically, pressuring world firms to chop ties with the island, intimidating international locations that cooperate with Taiwan, and clamping down on tourism from the PRC.

Within the face of the Chinese language Communist Celebration’s (CCP) accelerating aggression, our congressional delegation’s go to needs to be seen as an unequivocal assertion that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic accomplice, because it defends itself and its freedom.

Our go to — certainly one of a number of congressional delegations to the island — by no means contradicts the long-standing one-China coverage, guided by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the U.S.-China Joint Communiques and the Six Assurances. America continues to oppose unilateral efforts to alter the established order.

Our go to is a part of our broader journey to the Pacific — together with Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan — centered on mutual safety, financial partnership and democratic governance.

Shouldn’t we lose the battle in Ukraine first? In the meantime:

Oh, look. A cauldron.

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Higher than nothing. However late. And Fb?!

Right here is the hyperlink to the Fb web page.

2022

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PA: Does Dr. Oz have a marketing campaign employees? Do they not have media patrons in New Jersey?

PA: On the path, although maybe not very:

WI: “A Democrat who dropped out of the Wisconsin Senate race is giving the get together a $600,000 shock reward” [NBC]. “The Milwaukee Bucks government who dropped out of the Wisconsin Senate race this week is in a giving temper. After he instantly threw his assist behind fellow Democrat Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor, Alex Lasry is now providing one other reward to spice up his former rival. Lasry mentioned he’ll use $584,000 value of beforehand bought airtime to run assault advertisements in opposition to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.” • This doesn’t occur on a regular basis?

WY: “WATCH: Liz Cheney’s unpopularity grows, known as ‘a humiliation’ by Wyoming voters” [The Gazette]. “‘Can I cuss? Hell no,’ mentioned Wyoming resident Sharon Tuggle bluntly earlier than noting Cheney’s work on the Jan. 6 committee. ‘She’s performed us soiled.’ In 2020, former President Donald Trump received round 70% of the vote in Wyoming. He stays in style within the state. ‘Take a look at how [Cheney’s] performed Trump,’ Tuggle mentioned. ‘She’s speculated to be supporting him. She’s a Republican, for crying out loud.’” • I’m picturing a form of Mike and Joe scenario on MSNBC, besides with Liz Cheney and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

2024

“Trump beats Biden, Harris in hypothetical 2024 match-up: ballot” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump leads President Biden and Vice President Harris in hypothetical 2024 presidential match-ups, based on a brand new Harvard CAPS-Harris Ballot survey launched solely to The Hill on Monday. The ballot discovered that if the 2024 election had been held as we speak, 45 % of respondents would vote for Trump in a race in opposition to Biden, who attracted the assist of 41 % of respondents, whereas 14 % had been not sure or didn’t know. In a hypothetical Trump-Harris match-up, Trump’s lead expands to 7 proportion factors. Forty-seven % mentioned they’d assist Trump, in comparison with 40 % for Harris and 13 % who had been not sure or didn’t know. Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Ballot survey, famous how Biden can be a weaker candidate in a race in opposition to Trump as we speak than he carried out in 2020.” • Ah, Mark Penn, reviled by Clintonites, maybe even justly. After all, all that is earlier than the trouble to make Biden appear Churchillian. Move the victory gin. Liberal Democrat: “However Trump is a criminal!” And–

““I’ve Delivered”: New Disclosures Demolish President Biden’s Denials on Hunter Dealings” [The Hill]. “New disclosures are demolishing the continued denials of President Biden that he had no information and nothing to do together with his son’s enterprise pursuits. The emails (reviewed by Fox and The Day by day Mail) embody exchanges with not less than 14 of Hunter Biden’s enterprise associates whereas Joe Biden was vice chairman…. There are emails of Ukrainian and different overseas purchasers thanking Hunter Biden for arranging conferences together with his father. There are photographs from dinners and conferences that tie President Biden to those figures, together with a 2015 dinner with a gaggle of Hunter Biden’s Russian and Kazakh purchasers. Individuals apparently had been informed to keep away from immediately referring to President Biden. In a single e mail, Tony Bobulinski, then a enterprise accomplice of Hunter’s, was instructed by Biden affiliate James Gilliar to not communicate of the previous veep’s connection to any transactions: “Don’t point out Joe being concerned, it’s solely when u [sic] are nose to nose, I do know u [sic] know that however they’re paranoid.” As a substitute, the emails apparently confer with President Biden with code names reminiscent of “Celtic” or “the large man.” In a single, “the large man” is mentioned as probably receiving a ten % lower on a cope with a Chinese language vitality agency; different emails reportedly confer with Hunter Biden paying parts of his father’s bills and taxes.” • ”Say a prayer for the frequent foot soldier.” In any case, what tune amongst us has grown as much as be their father’s bagman?

“Donald Trump’s Nice Escape: How The Former President Solved His Debt Disaster” [Forbes]. “he day Donald Trump left the White Home, his enterprise was dealing with $900 million of debt coming due within the subsequent 4 years. Working by means of these loans would have been a major endeavor for any agency, however the Trump Group was contending with extra challenges. Deutsche Financial institution, Trump’s longtime lender, was reportedly seeking to finish its relationship with the true property mogul. Two different monetary establishments, Signature Financial institution and Skilled Financial institution, had unfold the phrase that they had been reducing ties within the wake of January 6, 2021. In the meantime, the Manhattan district legal professional was getting near charging the Trump Group with a collection of monetary crimes, together with falsifying enterprise information, conspiracy and fraud. Quickly loads of folks had been trumpeting the top of an period.” The partitions had been closing in! Extra: “Within the final 15 months, the Trump Group—below indictment, with its founder characterizing the fees as a part of a “political Witch Hunt by the Radical Left Demo­crats”—has managed to remodel virtually all $900 million of the debt it had coming due. Two of its most troublesome Deutsche Financial institution loans, totaling $295 million, at the moment are off the books. The previous president bought his money-losing resort in Washington, D.C., to an funding store related to former Main League Baseball star Alex Rodriguez and retired boxing champion Floyd Mayweather, thanks to assist from a agency tied to laptop billionaire Michael Dell. Trump additionally refinanced $125 million of debt in opposition to a Miami golf resort and reworked a $100 million mortgage at Trump Tower. Trump’s enterprise nonetheless has loads of debt—an estimated $1.1 billion in all—however now most of it doesn’t come due till 2028 or later. Two loans that haven’t been refinanced—a $13 million mortgage in opposition to a property on Third Avenue in Manhattan and a $45 million mortgage in opposition to a tower in Chicago—mature in 2024. However neither of these needs to be too tough to pay again. In any case, Trump now has an estimated $375 million in money available, greater than thrice the sum he had at any level throughout his presidency, because of the spate of dealmaking.” • You gotta respect the grift!

“The Memo: No, actually — What if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez runs for president?” [The Hill]. “Ocasio-Cortez has conspicuously declined to decide to endorsing Biden for a second time period. In a CNN interview final month, she informed Dana Bash, ‘We’ll cross that bridge after we get to it.’ The New York congresswoman, who shot to fame in 2018 when she defeated then-Rep. Joseph Crowley in a Democratic major, is already a fundraising juggernaut. She might simply elevate the funds to run a aggressive marketing campaign. She additionally has an unlimited social media following — greater than 13 million followers on Twitter alone. Pollsters have begun testing her identify amongst different much more seasoned figures and, whereas the degrees of assist are modest for now, she is plainly within the combine. An Echelon Insights ballot this month, asking Democratic-leaning voters who they’d assist if Biden eschewed a second time period, put her in sixth place — however in a tightly bunched group of candidates, solely 2 proportion factors behind third-placed Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). Vice President Harris and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led that ballot…. Two different elements recommend an Ocasio-Cortez marketing campaign shouldn’t be written off out of hand. First: Sure, she is sufficiently old to run. The minimal age to be president is 35. Ocasio-Cortez will rejoice her thirty fifth birthday roughly three weeks earlier than Election Day 2024. The second is that she has lengthy leveled a broad critique of the Democratic Celebration management in Washington — in abstract, that it’s too cozy with wealthy, highly effective pursuits and never responsive sufficient to the wants of its personal voters.” • A “broad critique” by Beltway requirements, I believe. Nonetheless, wouldn’t the Democrat gerontocracy’s intracranial splatterfest be enjoyable?

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“Mainstream Democrats Picked Henry Cuellar. Look The place It Obtained Them” [Teen Vogue]. “Final week, Cuellar was known as out for co-sponsoring a invoice earlier in July which many see as a weakening of the Honest Labor Requirements Act of 1938, alongside two Republicans. The so-called ‘Employee Flexibility and Alternative Act‘ amends the act, and establishes ‘employee flexibility agreements’ which serve to exempt gig staff from the federal minimal wage, preempting state- or city-level legal guidelines that enshrine a minimal wage. This might have disastrous penalties for American staff. As defined by Jacobin columnist Liza Featherstone, ‘The invoice creates complete new methods for employers to get out of paying minimal wage and extra time, extending the gig economic system’s stress and chaos to tens of millions extra staff.’” • It acquired them precisely the place they needed to be: As soon as that they had two rotating villains: Manchin and Sinema. Now that Manchin is turning into a face as an alternative of a heel, he must be changed: Therefore, Cuellar.

“Slice of Earnings From North Carolina On line casino Goes to Family of Politicians” [Wall Street Journal]. “An organization cashing in on a brand new North Carolina tribal on line casino gave shares to politicians’ relations and high-profile political figures because the on line casino’s backers had been in search of federal approval for the undertaking, based on interviews and paperwork reviewed by The Wall Avenue Journal. One of many stakes is held by John B. Clyburn, a brother of Rep. James Clyburn, the highly effective South Carolina Democratic congressman who launched a invoice in Congress final 12 months that smoothed the way in which for the brand new Catawba Two Kings On line casino. Different stakes went to Michael Haley, husband of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, a Republican who served within the Trump administration as ambassador to the United Nations; Butch Bowers, a lawyer who has represented each Ms. Haley and former President Donald Trump; and Patti Solis Doyle, a Democratic political operative who helped handle campaigns in 2008 for Hillary Clinton and then-vice presidential candidate Joe Biden, based on the paperwork. The stakes, held not directly by means of one other entity, gave every of the recipients a slice of a slot-machine leasing firm known as Kings Mountain Gear Provide LLC, whose main shareholders embody monetary backers of the on line casino or their associates, based on the paperwork. The corporate will get 20 cents of each $1 in earnings the on line casino generates from lots of of slot machines. The shareholdings are small—far lower than 1% possession for every recipient, the paperwork present. These concerned deny any quid professional quo.” • I don’t assume folks like Clyburn grew to become what they’re as we speak by turning down something, regardless of how “small.” Why take shares in any respect, for pity’s sake?

“How AIPAC Betrayed Its Former Assist for Democracy” [Tikkun]. “I’m long gone my years of cooperating with AIPAC. Nonetheless, I defended it on not less than one event. In early 2019, when Rep. Ilhan Omar tweeted that assist for Israel is ‘all concerning the Benjamins,’ I joined those that condemned her assertion as antisemitic (she later apologized). With respect to AIPAC, the implicit goal of her tweet, many issues might have gone awry however not the truth that it had by no means endorsed or contributed to a marketing campaign.” Tediously literal-minded! Extra: “This was at all times some extent of satisfaction with the group. They had been there to coach. The ‘PAC’ within the identify stood for ‘Public Affairs Committee,’ not ‘Political Motion Committee.’ There have been no Benjamins concerned. That each one modified this 12 months when AIPAC based the United Democracy Venture (UDP) to endorse candidates and channel darkish cash to assist them.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Do We Get the Authorities We Deserve?” [Wisdom of Crowds]. “The truth is that even in superior democracies reminiscent of our personal, it turns into difficult to consider in small-d democracy below situations of duress. We, as Individuals, are at the moment dwelling below such situations. By this I imply one thing fairly particular. When electoral outcomes appear personally threatening, as a result of a lot (or an excessive amount of) is at stake, then it turns into simpler for one to place apart his or her supposed dedication to democracy. We’re seeing a model of this with a Republican Celebration that, to numerous levels, has indicated discomfort with—or outright opposition to—an election final result in 2020 that was to not its liking. I don’t assume Democrats would have been practically as unhealthy, however I do assume that the counterfactual historical past of a Trump victory in 2020 would have created a point of political instability, pushed by the shortcoming of tens of tens of millions of Democrats to come back to phrases with the legitimacy of a second-term Trump presidency.”• Not controversial, provided that the Democrat response to 2016 was RussiaGate.

“RNC hyperlinks up with ‘Cease the Steal’ advocates to coach ballot staff” [Politico]. • What actually frosts me about this sort of story is that’s begins and ends with the aghastitude. Why or why don’t Democrats compete on this turf? What’s holding them up?

#COVID19

As readers know, I stan for nasal sprays and vaccines:

“Evaluating the efficacy and security of a novel prophylactic nasal spray within the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 an infection: A multi-centre, double blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial” [ScienceDirect]. “This examine stories the event of a prophylactic nasal spray focused to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that’s easy to provide and simply inexpensive…. The nasal spray was administered 3 instances day by day over a forty five day course…. The take a look at agent considerably lowered SARS-CoV-2 an infection in healthcare staff, with 62% fewer infections when in comparison with placebo. It was discovered to be secure and nicely tolerated and provides a novel remedy choice for prophylaxis in opposition to SARS-CoV-2 an infection.” • I’ve to say, “Don’t do this at house,” however listed below are the elements (although not, naturally, their proportions):

The elements of the take a look at spray embody sterile water, polyethylene glycol 400, poloxamer 188, xylitol, disodium hydrogen phosphate, sodium chloride, hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, ginger oil, eucalyptus oil, basil oil, clove oil, sodium hydrogen carbonate, potassium dihydrogen phosphate, ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid, sodium hyaluronate, calcium chloride dihydrate, benzalkonium chloride, magnesium chloride hexahydrate, potassium chloride, glycerol, and zinc chloride.

Ring any bells with our extra medically aggressive readers? Your complete piece is nicely value a learn, as a result of it has comparability to different research of nasal sprays. It’s principally written in English (not jargon).

“Subsequent Era Covid Vaccine Replace: Intranasal & Different Mucosal Vaxes” [Hilda Bastian, Absolutely Maybe]. Bastian’s periodically up to date listing. “There are 88 mucosal vaccines on this put up with preclinical and/or scientific trial outcomes, or registered trials—16 greater than in my final put up…. There’s nonetheless only one mucosal Covid vax rolled out—the Razi Cov Pars vaccine in Iran. However a number of vaccines have superior.” •

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“Three Urgent Questions About Monkeypox: Unfold, Vaccination, Therapy” [New York Times]. Provided that smallpox vaccines work for monkeypox: “In 2018, the F.D.A. permitted a drug to deal with smallpox known as tecovirimat, or TPOXX, based mostly on knowledge from animal research. There are solely restricted knowledge on its use in folks. Provide isn’t a problem: The nationwide stockpile holds about 1.7 million doses. But the drug has been tough to accumulate, and that has meant that ambiguities about how nicely and for whom the drug works have persevered whilst case counts rise. As a result of tecovirimat isn’t permitted particularly to deal with monkeypox, it may possibly solely be prescribed by means of a cumbersome “investigational drug protocol” that, till lately, required docs to ship the C.D.C. detailed stories, a journal maintained by the sufferers to document their progress and pictures of the lesions. With so many hurdles, many clinics didn’t supply tecovirimat in any respect; even physicians at well-funded establishments had been managing to deal with solely two or three sufferers per day.” • Groundpox Day.

Our new monkeypox Czar:

Daskalakis is, naturally, a droplet goon–

“Monkeypox: Avoiding the Errors of Previous Infectious Illness Epidemics” [Demetre Daskalakis, R. Paul McClung, Leandro Mena, et al, Annals of Internal Medicine]. “Monkeypox virus an infection could be transmitted by means of cutaneous routes throughout shut or intimate contact with an individual whose lesions are usually not but crusted over and healed, by way of fomites which have had contact with an individual with monkeypox, and by respiratory droplets amongst folks with shut, sustained face-to-face contact.” However as we linked to yesterday:

So, apparently, Monkeypox is airborne (“unfold by means of the air after they cough, sneeze, “). Now, I’ve very robust priors on airborne transmission, as readers know. So I’m not making a powerful declare, right here (i.e., I haven’t seen that Monkeypox fills a room like cigarette smoke). However once more, I really feel like I’ve seen this film earlier than: Combined messaging at the very best, no actual idea of transmission that the general public can perceive and act upon, and no investigation besides by out-of-paradigm outsiders. (It’s not known as “droplet dogma” for nothing.) How I want to be incorrect!

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Maskstravaganza: Helpful response to “masks don’t work”:

“This DIY field helps clear indoor air of the coronavirus. Why aren’t extra folks utilizing them?” [Los Angeles Times]. “‘Individuals aren’t embracing any of the opposite issues that may avert catastrophe on this pandemic,’ mentioned LeVine, a 49-year-old hashish firm government with {an electrical} engineering diploma who began constructing trippy do-it-yourself filtration bins as a passion. ‘Possibly I can create a method to clear the air that folks need in the course of the room.’ Because the pandemic drags on, not only for aerosol scientists and epidemiologists, however for a seize bag of involved residents like LeVine.” • To reply the query, extra folks aren’t utilizing Corsi-Rosenthal bins as a result of Dr. Jill Biden by no means went on the At present Present and assembled one, within the midst of some adoring college children. This isn’t onerous.

“Consultants assist this DIY undertaking to guard your post-COVID-19 lungs throughout wildfire season” [Loma Linda University]. • Simple-to-follow instructions for constructing a CR field.

One other ardour undertaking:


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Do what thou wilt shall be the entire of the regulation, or, Aleister Crowley as Ur-Libertarian:

For those who missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) contemplate most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “group ranges” assume. However these are the numbers we have now.

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Case Rely

Case depend for the US:

Lambert right here: This tapewatcher is barely befuddled by the case knowledge. Put aside the worrying assumption that the curves for actual circumstances are the identical form because the curves for reported circumstances, although there’s nothing to show this. However circumstances are not going by means of the roof, not less than when it comes to case reporting. Information artifact? “Vaccine wall”? Why this sluggish, sawtooth sample when BA.5 is understood to be very infectious? Talking of immunity partitions:

• “Immunity partitions” [Eric Topol, Ground Truths]. “There have been marked variations for the way the inhabitants of various international locations reply to the Covid pandemic, maybe greatest exemplified within the BA.5 variant wave…. The “immunity wall” of a inhabitants is an mixture of many elements that embody demographics reminiscent of age and comorbidities, like weight problems or diabetes. Age is particularly necessary given immunosenescence, the much less potent immune response usually mounted with superior age. For the pandemic, of specific notice, it contains prior infections, vaccines, boosters, mixed infections and boosters (hybrid immunity) and waning of the immunity from vaccines or infections over time. … With that background, let’s probe deeper into why the patterns are so completely different between New Zealand, Australia vs South Africa, US, and plenty of different international locations…. To summarize, the impression of BA.5 that I’ve described because the worst variant of the pandemic by its biologic properties is seen clinically the place there are much less intact immunity partitions, principally as a operate of prior infections and the kind (major variant underpinning) of infections. Our immunity wall in the US has helped present a lesser hit of BA.5, now beginning to present a plateau of hospitalizations at a stage beneath that of different international locations in Europe, although our vaccination and booster price within the US is considerably decrease than these international locations.” • I’m not the one tape-watcher….

Do not forget that circumstances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the true stage of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier depend was ~125,000 At present, it’s ~125,000 and 125,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 750,000 per day. That’s somewhat plenty of circumstances per day, when you concentrate on it. No less than we have now affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. (Bear in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

Regional case depend for 4 weeks:

The South:

A sluggish upswing in the remainder of the south, beneath the Florida and Texas gyrations.

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

North Carolina and Georgia don’t have any knowledge as we speak (therefore the gaps within the chart).

The West:

California drives the nationwide drop. This large drop is supported by yesterday’s Walgreens positivity knowledge (though not by wastewater. The populations for these two populations don’t essentially overlap, nevertheless.) However I’m simply unsure I can belief California knowledge. For instance, right here is San Diego wastewater:

What do California readers assume?

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, July 31:

-0.4%. (I’m wondering if there’s a Keynesian Magnificence Contest impact, right here; that’s, if folks encounter a sympotomatic individual, whether or not of their social circle or in regular exercise, they’re extra prone to get a take a look at, as a result of they consider, appropriately, that it’s extra seemingly they are going to be contaminated.) What we’re seeing right here is the steepest and largest acceleration of positivity on Walgreen’s chart.

Lambert right here: See Water Cooler of seven/29 for oddities with the chart on that day (like no worth in any respect for New York). We do see a fast change in slope from 7/27 to as we speak, 7/31. Nevertheless, such modifications are usually not unprecedented at a peak. Someone who is aware of the mathematics of Keynesian magnificence contests can inform me: If one individual identified to be contaminated in a social circle causes a number of folks to get examined, wouldn’t modifications within the an infection price, whether or not up or down, get amplified within the testing price?

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you. For July 21, 2020:

Establishment, i.e. it’s a completely not-over pandemic.

Lambert right here: After the transfer from the CDC to the laughingly named ‘https://healthdata.gov,” this discover appeared: “Efficient June 22, 2022, the Neighborhood Profile Report will solely be up to date twice every week, on Wednesdays and Fridays.” So now the administration has belatedly come to the conclusion that we’re in a BA.5 surge, and but important knowledge for making our private danger assessments is just out there twice every week.

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), July 29:

Enhancements in all places!

Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), July 29:

Extra inexperienced. Good!

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. I seemed for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does however it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), July 14:

Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 16 (Nowcast off):

BA.5 transferring alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), July 29:

I discovered this chart onerous to learn, so I filtered the output to the very best (pink) and next-highest (orange) ranges (considerably like Fast Riser Counties, see on right here). What’s seen is that plenty of cities are in bother; however that protection is absolutely patchy. Illinois, for instance, has at all times had plenty of protection, however the dots cease on the Illinois border. This chart works a bit like fast riser counties: “This metric exhibits whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a web site are at the moment larger or decrease than previous historic ranges on the similar web site. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the web site; 100% means ranges are the very best they’ve been on the web site.” So, there’s a bunch of pink dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so meaning “ranges are the very best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.

Deaths

Loss of life price (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,055,576 1,054,422. It’s curious that deaths are fiddling and diddling similar to circumstances. Suggests the impact in circumstances is actual, regardless of the precise stage of an infection.I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a pleasant, easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like every thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings within the US fell by 605,000 from a month earlier to 10.7 million in June of 2022, the bottom in 9 months and beneath market expectations of 11 million. It was the third consecutive drop in job openings after a document stage in March. The most important decreases in job openings had been in retail commerce (-343,000), wholesale commerce (-82,000), and in state and native authorities schooling (-62,000).”

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Retail: “SPAM goes on lockdown as a result of inflation in NYC” [New York Post (jr)]. “It’s the nation’s crises in a can. Inflation and crime have gotten so unhealthy in Gotham that even low-cost meat like Spam must be locked up. At Duane Reade’s retailer within the Port Authority bus depot, the shelf-stable product — solely $3.99 a can — is now being stocked in plastic, anti-theft circumstances. ‘I’ve by no means seen that earlier than!’ one cashier laughed whereas utilizing a magnet to take away a can of Spam from its cage. The cashier was among the many staff, vacationers and retailer regulars surprised that the enduring blue-and-yellow cans at the moment are being stored below lock-and-key — some even poking enjoyable on the sight as ‘a form of Jeff Koons homage,’ per one viral tweet.”

Tech: “Court docket Rejects Google’s Try to Dismiss Rumble’s Antitrust Lawsuit, Making certain Huge Discovery” [Glenn Greenwald]. “A federal district court docket in California on Friday denied Google’s movement to dismiss a lawsuit alleging that the Silicon Valley big is violating federal antitrust legal guidelines by stopping honest competitors in opposition to its YouTube video platform. The lawsuit in opposition to Google, which has owned YouTube since its 2006 buy for $1.65 billion, was introduced in early 2021 by Rumble, the free speech competitor to YouTube. Its central declare is that Google’s abuse of its monopolistic stranglehold on engines like google to destroy all opponents to its numerous different platforms is prohibited below the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, which makes it illegal to ‘monopolize, or try and monopolize…any a part of the commerce or commerce among the many a number of States, or with overseas nations.’ It’s uncommon for antitrust fits in opposition to the 4 Huge Tech company giants (Google, Fb, Apple and Amazon) to keep away from early motions to dismiss. Friday’s choice in opposition to Google ensures that the go well with now proceeds to the invention stage.” • Yowza!

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At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 42 Concern (earlier shut: 39 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 35 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 2 at 1:43 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Earthquakes. “A Lethal Quakes strikes the Philippines” [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 189. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. Now it has.

The Conservatory

Possibly I ought to have put this below “Zeitgeist Watch”:

I realized about “Frequent Individuals” from alert reader Petal again in 2019, IIRC. Catchy tune. Right here’s a dwell model:

The Gallery

The way it began (1):

The way it’s going (1):

The way it began (2):

The way it’s going (2):

I don’t even play an artwork historian on TV, but when Louise Bourgeois orginated “punk pasteup” that will be superior. Bourgeois is terrific, even the enormous spiders.

Zeitgeist Watch

“Why So Many Supercars Have Montana License Plates” [Bloomberg]. • Regulatory arbitrage, our most distinctive competence as a rustic after bloated weaponry.

Police State Watch

“Simple Cash: How Counties Are Funneling Covid Reduction Funds Into New Jails” [The Nation]. “All through the nation, counties are dipping into funds from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and the Coronavirus Help, Reduction, and Financial Safety (CARES) Act to construct and broaden jails and prisons. No less than 20 counties in 18 states are utilizing, or need to use, Covid aid cash this manner. The issue is, their choice to take action violates the spirit, and certain the letter, of the foundations governing how aid cash can be utilized. These guidelines, finalized by the US Treasury earlier this 12 months, ban jurisdictions from utilizing Covid aid cash to construct or broaden correctional amenities. But that hasn’t stopped native officers in plenty of counties from pushing their tasks by means of, spending their ARPA and CARES Act windfalls like successful lottery tickets for long-sought expansions.”

“Concern of Rampant Crime Is Derailing New York Metropolis’s Restoration” [Bloomberg]. “Maybe nowhere has the notion of rampant crime overpowered the truth greater than in New York Metropolis, the place the homicide price has definitely elevated in recent times however is nowhere close to the place it was within the Nineteen Eighties and Nineteen Nineties. Fears of violence have now surpassed Covid issues in the case of why staff say they received’t return to their Manhattan places of work or trip on public transit within the monetary capital of the world. Apart from the impression on the residents of New York, there are far-reaching implications for the vacationers, traders and different individuals who carry enterprise and capital to the town’s economic system. A part of the outsized notion could be traced to the town’s new mayor, Eric Adams, whose deal with crime helped propel the 22-year veteran of the New York Metropolis Police Division into the job. As soon as in workplace, he staked his administration on the concept he’s uniquely suited to supply a fast repair to the advanced downside of eradicating violence within the metropolis. Crisscrossing the town to indicate up at crime scenes large and small, he grew to become well-known for delivering sermon-like admonitions in apocalyptic phrases. “We’re in an actual scary place,” Adams mentioned in a Could police briefing the place he likened the NYPD’s work to battle deployment.”

Class Warfare

“Socioeconomic standing and public well being in Australia: A wastewater-based examine” [Environment Internationa]l. From the Summary: ” On this examine, fifteen wastewater samples masking 27% of the Australian inhabitants had been collected throughout a inhabitants Census. The samples had been analysed with a workflow using liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry and chemometric instruments for non-target evaluation. Socioeconomic traits of catchment areas had been generated utilizing Geospatial Info Programs software program….. Markers of public well being (e.g., cardiac arrhythmia, heart problems, nervousness dysfunction and kind 2 diabetes) had been recognized within the wastewater samples by the proposed workflow. They had been positively correlated with descriptors of drawback in schooling, occupation, marital standing and earnings, and negatively correlated with descriptors of benefit in schooling and occupation. As well as, markers of polypropylene glycol (PPG) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) associated compounds had been positively correlated with housing and occupation drawback. Excessive constructive correlations had been discovered between separated and divorced folks and particular medication used to deal with cardiac arrhythmia, heart problems, and melancholy. Our strong non-targeted methodology together with Census knowledge can establish relationships between biomarkers of public well being, human behaviour and way of life and socio-demographics of complete populations.” • Wastewater actually appears to be having a second as of late.

Information of the Wired

Out of field considering:

I’m wondering if we might course of plenty of media the identical means; maybe a change in “the present factor” would equate to a sudden change in tone or texture. This would definitely be faster than truly listening to all of it.

The timeline Sluggo is in, is the very best timeline….

… as any economist will inform you. If that had been a actual fifty-dollar invoice, any individual would have already got picked it up.

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From IM:

IM writes: “That is from the continental divide, up in Yoho park in BC. There’s a nurse log beneath the foliage. Cool forest greens for the new summer time days.” Attractive mild. Definition of “nurse log”; museum-grade nurse logs.

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the lately concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

For those who hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on how one can ship a verify. Thanks!

The Senate GOP’s Nice Western Land Heist





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