by confoundedinterest17
The mayhem attributable to the Russian invasion of Ukraine helps drive down rates of interest … in the interim … and that is serving to push down mortgage charges and improve mortgage functions.
Mortgage functions elevated 8.5 % from one week earlier, in keeping with information from the Mortgage Bankers Affiliation’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Functions Survey for the week ending March 4, 2022.
The seasonally adjusted Buy Index elevated 9 % from one week earlier. The unadjusted Buy Index elevated 11 % in contrast with the earlier week and was 7 % decrease than the identical week one yr in the past.
The Refinance Index elevated 9 % from the earlier week and was 50 % decrease than the identical week one yr in the past. Diane Olick at CNBC has the hilarious headline “Transient drop in mortgage charges sparks mini refinance growth.” The slight rise in refi functions from the earlier week is extra of a firecracker going off than a growth on condition that refi apps are nonetheless down 50% from the identical week final yr.
Keep in mind that the US Treasury 10-year yield is up because the MBA’s reporting week ended on March 4, 2022. So, search for Olick’s mini-refi growth to finish as rapidly because it began.
Right here is the remainder of the MBA story.
The MBA Mortgage Buy functions index usually peaks in mid-to-late April, so we nonetheless have one other month (seasonality) till buy functions start declining once more.
The US Treasury 10Y-2Y curve continues to flatten and is the worst curve restoration in fashionable historical past.
The overall rise in US mortgage charges is extra intently tied to expectations of Fed fee will increase than Fed Company MBS holdings.
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