2:00PM Water Cooler 2/27/2025 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether.

Readers, the fundraiser for my very almost gold retirement watch + all my Water Cooler work executed in 2024 is ongoing. The objective is 400 donors; as of this writing, we have now 275, or 68% of objective. Good progress! Thanks. I hope we will shut this out Friday, tomorrow, my final day. Any quantity helps! When you may give a bit, give a bit. When you may give loads, give loads! Thanks all a lot! –lambert IMPORTANT Donors who’ve month-to-month subscriptions to Water Cooler in PayPal ought to cancel them subsequent month, so you aren’t paying me for work I’m not doing!

Chicken Track of the Day

American Robin, 138 Captains Dr, West Babylon, Suffolk, New York, United States. “American Robin singing from the highest of a constructing earlier than daybreak.” I’ve at all times puzzled why Babylon and never, say, “Gomorrah.” Right here is the story.

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

1. Govt Order particulars DOGE’s Bolshevik-style construction and operation.
2. DOGE as class conflict.
3. Cuomo floats Presidential trial balloon.
4. Employment figures warn of a souring financial system.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Trump Administration

Warning, supergenius at work:

There’s a scarcity of prime notch air visitors controllers. When you’ve got retired, however are open to returning to work, please take into account doing so.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 27, 2025

“Trump administration struggles to rehire fired hen flu workers” [Politico]. “The Trump administration touted a virtually $1 billion plan Wednesday to fight the unfold of avian flu and mitigate skyrocketing egg costs because the outbreak rips by poultry flocks throughout america. However the measures come because the Agriculture Division is struggling to rehire key workers engaged on the virus outbreak who had been fired as a part of the administration’s sweeping purge of presidency employees. Roughly 1 / 4 of workers in a essential workplace testing for the illness had been lower, in addition to scientists and inspectors. The dismissals have already helped set off a partial shutdown at one of many division’s analysis services, in keeping with two USDA workers, interrupting some employees’ efforts to struggle hen flu and assist livestock get well from sickness. Now, company officers are working into logistical challenges in reinstating its hen flu workers — and convincing them to return to jobs whereas the president repeatedly makes an attempt to squeeze authorities employees.” • BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!! And now persons are responding to excessive egg costs by elevating yard chickens. Nothing to fret abot there!

“VA pauses billions in cuts lauded by Musk as lawmakers and veterans decry lack of essential care” [Associated Press]. “The Division of Veterans Affairs has briefly suspended billions of {dollars} in deliberate contract cuts following issues that the transfer would harm essential veterans’ well being companies, lawmakers and veterans service organizations stated Wednesday. The pause impacts tons of of VA contracts that Secretary Doug Collins a day earlier described as merely consulting offers, whose cancellation would save $2 billion because the Trump administration works to slash prices throughout the federal authorities…. The Related Press has obtained the complete listing of 875 affected contracts, which reveals the cuts would have an effect on every thing from most cancers care to the flexibility to evaluate poisonous publicity. The listing underscores how the Trump administration’s method to broad spending reductions has instant and probably unintended penalties, producing vital concern not simply amongst Democrats but additionally Republican lawmakers.”

* * *

“Prime Social Safety deputies depart amid rumored workers cuts” [Government Executive]. “A lot of the Social Safety Administration’s regional commissioners have determined to retire on the finish of this week, following mysterious conferences with company leaders about plans to slash its workforce. Not less than 5 of the eight regional commissioners whose places of work oversee and assist the company’s frontline places of work throughout the nation are leaving, in keeping with a supply acquainted with the company and an SSA worker not approved to talk on the document. The Social Safety Administration had largely been spared by the Trump administration’s early efforts to chop workers throughout authorities, receiving exemptions for frontline employees from the ‘deferred-resignation’ program, Voluntary Early Retirement Authority, and the purge of employees who had been lately employed or promoted. However that apparently modified this week, triggering the wave of retirement bulletins.” And: “A number of information shops reported Wednesday that Performing Commissioner Leland Dudek is seeking to halve the company’s workers of about 57,000 workers. However two SSA workers informed Authorities Govt that an government on the company stated in an inner assembly that Dudek desires to chop the SSA workforce by about 7,000 individuals. One other particular person acquainted with the state of affairs additionally confirmed that Dudek’s objective is to get the workforce all the way down to 50,000. It’s not clear whether or not this consists of frontline workers.” • No purpose to chop assist if you happen to’re not going to chop advantages later. (Speculating freely, there shall be a hilarious however doomed effort to stop AI name facilities from hallucinating, that ought to take three or 4 years to play out.)

“50% Cuts at Social Safety Administration, In keeping with TAP” [Talking Points Memo]. “I’ve spent the final 24 hours attempting to verify or refute pervasive rumors all through the Social Safety Administration that the company is about to announce an across-the-board lower of fifty% of workers. The choice was purportedly introduced at a day assembly yesterday by Performing Commissioner Leland Dudek. He requested for a plan for 50% cuts to be introduced to him this afternoon. I’ve not been in a position to verify this. However David Dayen at The American Prospect seems to have discovered two individuals who had been within the assembly and do verify it. Right here’s David’s report. It’s been exhausting to think about that they had been truly considering this, not as a result of it’s horrible however as a result of it’s more likely to have such dramatic (and sure political expensive) impacts on tens of tens of millions of Individuals. However right here we’re.”

“As DOGE Assaults Social Safety, New Report Reveals Elon Is One of many Authorities’s Largest Beneficiaries” [Gizmodo]. “In latest weeks, DOGE has been serving to to terminate leases for SSA places of work throughout the nation, resulting in deliberate closures in areas like Michigan, New York, West Virginia, Ohio, Arkansas, Texas, and others.”

* * *

“Musk’s Ex-Twitter Employees Win Severance Over ‘Fork within the Highway’ Electronic mail” [Bloomberg]. “4 ex-Twitter employees have prevailed in a latest sequence of closed-door arbitration proceedings over claims they had been illegally denied severance, in keeping with a memo seen by Bloomberg Information. Greater than two years in the past, Musk requested Twitter workers in an e mail with the topic line ‘A Fork within the Highway’ to both decide to an ‘extraordinarily hardcore’ work surroundings or depart the corporate. Musk’s cost-cutting methods have been thrust into the nationwide highlight with an identical hardline method to skinny out the federal workforce — which included lately sending greater than two million federal employees an e mail with the identical “Fork within the Highway” topic line. The e-mail gave workers the choice to resign however be paid by the top of September, whereas warning them of upcoming downsizing.

The e-mail was despatched as Musk started his new position spearheading a federal cost-cutting effort as a key adviser to the Division of Authorities Effectivity beneath President Donald Trump. At Twitter, now referred to as X, the 4 employees argued efficiently that though they didn’t reply to the e-mail, they didn’t resign and had been as a substitute terminated, which means they had been entitled to severance promised by the corporate earlier than Musk purchased it.The victories for the 4 workers haven’t beforehand been reported. The same emails despatched to federal employees are actually the topic of a number of lawsuits. Musk and representatives of X didn’t reply to requests for remark.” • Little question!

* * *

“Conservative commentators seen with ‘Epstein Recordsdata’ binders after AG Bondi guarantees docs launch’” [Associated Press]. ” Conservative political commentators had been noticed on the White Home Thursday holding binders that learn ‘The Epstein Recordsdata’ hours after Legal professional Common Pam Bondi promised the discharge of paperwork about rich financier Jeffrey Epstein, who sexually abused underage ladies. It was not instantly clear what was within the binders, which haven’t been launched publicly by the Justice Division. The binders learn ‘declassified,’ however it was not instantly clear whether or not the data contained within the binders ever had been categorised. Amongst these holding the binders was political commentator Rogan O’Handley, also called DC Draino. Bondi stated Wednesday on Fox Information that the paperwork would come with flight logs and “loads of names,” although it was unclear whether or not there could be particulars not already publicly identified.” • These information are being launched so slowly — and I assume selectively, since a easy doc dump could be fast — that we’d as effectively be within the molasses-brained Biden administration. And to assume I shivered with antici… pation.

DOGE

“IMPLEMENTING THE PRESIDENT’S “DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY” COST EFFICIENCY INITIATIVE” [The White House].

This is an implementation of the Bolshevik-style party structure parallel to govenment agencies we have previously seen. Nominally, the agency heads are in charge (see the highlights), but in practice that might change, if the “DOGEbag Team Lead” is a slithering weasel named “Big Bag,” whose trump card, at any show of resistance or disagreement, is “Do I need to call Elon?” The structure implies that the DOGE teams are there to help governement function better. That assumes facts not in evidence. And needless to say, this will need to be ripped out by the roots when DOGE’s time is up — if that ever happens — because otherwise we have a permanent change to the constitutiona order that nobody asked for or voted on.

* * *

“GOP senators vent Musk frustrations at closed-door meeting” [The Hill]. “Republican senators vented their concerns about tech billionaire Elon Musk’s aggressive approach to freezing federal spending and cutting government jobs during a private meeting with White House chief of staff Susie Wiles on Wednesday…. Every day’s another surprise,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said of the daily bombshells from Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). ‘It would be better to allow Cabinet secretaries to carefully review their departments and then make surgical, strategic decisions on what programs and people should be cut and then come back to Congress for approval,’ she said.” As Clinton/Gore did. More: “Wiles acknowledged the GOP senators’ concerns and urged them to contact her directly if they have any problems as a result of Musk’s blitz through the federal workforce.” And this is actually sane: “[Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.)] said Musk and DOGE should serve as advisers to Trump’s Cabinet officials instead of taking the lead on major policy decisions themselves. ‘We’re talking about governmental entities, a lot of complexity. That’s why I believe that DOGE will most likely morph into being an adviser to these Senate-confirmed heads of agencies fairly soon,’ he said.” Note the EO above; nominally, that is the structure. And: “‘Otherwise, I just have a real problem. If I get confirmed as the head of an agency, a Cabinet-level position, [and] I’ve got somebody else that is pretending — or that is acting as my boss, that’s a real problem,’ he added. ‘At the end of the day, you’ve got to have all those employees thinking that you’re looking out for the agencies and their best interests.’” • So let’s see how Wiles copes. Maybe there will be an interview with Elon’s ketamine supplier in the Daily Mail….

“Andrew Cuomo seen as possible White House candidate by some Democrats” [The Hill]. “Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is days away from potentially entering the New York City mayor’s race. But even before Cuomo is set to make that announcement, some Democrats are already tossing around his name for a bigger race: the 2028 presidential campaign. Since their loss in November, Democrats have been anxious to find a voice not only to lead them out of the wilderness but also to stand up to President Trump and the slew of actions he’s taken in his second term. Cuomo, with his brash, in-your-face style, they say, could shape up to be a dark horse candidate in what is set to be a wide-open race.” • Cuomo never was held responsible for slaughtering thousands of elders in nursing homes during the first wave of Covid, so the only remaining problem is the sex scandal!

“Sanders reintroducing measure increasing Social Security benefits” [The Hill]. “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is reintroducing a measure that would increase Social Security benefits. Sanders is joined by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Reps. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) and Val Hoyle (D-Ore.) on the bill, titled the Social Security Expansion Act. It would expand Social Security benefits by $2,400 a year and ensure the federal program is funded for the next 75 years through a tax on households making more than $250,000 a year, according to Sanders’s news release. The lawmakers noted that it would not raise taxes at all for households that make less than $250,000 annually, which is more than 90 percent of Americans. ‘At a time when nearly half of older Americans have no retirement savings and over 26 percent of seniors are trying to survive on an income of less than $17,500 a year, our job is not to cut Social Security as many of our Republican colleagues want to do,’ Sanders said in a statement.” • Where are Schumer and Jeffries on this? In fact, where are Schumer and Jeffries?

“DOGE is waging a class war on America’s new clerisy” [Spiked]. “The class dynamics at play in DOGE are not as straightforward as some would have it. It’s not simply a case of Musk, the billionaire oligarch, ruthlessly attacking the lowly administrator. The impetus for DOGE is primarily driven by a conflict within the middle class. On one side are public workers whose pay, and pensions, well exceed those in the private sector. On the other, there are millions who pay tax and feel harassed by regulations, particularly among Trump’s base of small business owners. Millions of middle- and working-class families not sucking the federal teat are falling ever behind the affluent elites, who seem to control the state whichever party is in power. Throughout the Biden years, government employment and related sectors, notably in health services, have emerged as the only consistently growing high-wage sectors, a pattern evident both in the last month of his administration and Trump’s first. In contrast, material sectors, like manufacturing and mining, have slumped. In the first three years of Biden’s presidency, the ranks of government workers, at all levels, expanded by 1.5million. In 2024, the federal government reached its highest worker count in two decades. President Biden’s budget for 2025, signed in March last year, envisaged total spending to be more than 60 per cent higher than it was in 2019.” • Anecdotally:

I was in Georgetown today driving through the nicest parts of DC

The amount of wealth there is staggering. The private high schools look like Ivy League campuses.

Beautiful homes and cars.

It’s a beautiful life. No wonder they all hate Trump.

No one wants it to end.

— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) February 26, 2025

Undecided why the dude was even in Georgetown. His bio reads: “Healthcare gross sales, Investor and son of a credit score dealer,” so presumably some grift lol.

Analytically:

For brand spanking new followers, here’s a diagram illustrating how core NGOs collaborate to create a world gentle energy construction that shapes elections, public coverage, financial coverage, and media affect.

Once more, many **present** members of Congress maintain positions inside these taxpayer-funded… pic.twitter.com/7wLsotSbTg

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) February 25, 2025

Information Republican is a super-interesting account (slowly emergent, under no circumstances positive spontaneously). Price a comply with:

For brand spanking new followers, here’s a diagram illustrating how core NGOs collaborate to create a world gentle energy construction that shapes elections, public coverage, financial coverage, and media affect.

Once more, many **present** members of Congress maintain positions inside these taxpayer-funded… pic.twitter.com/7wLsotSbTg

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) February 25, 2025

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, thump, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Airborne Transmission

“An built-in airborne transmission threat evaluation mannequin for respiratory viruses: short- and long-range contributions” [Journal of the Royal Society]. From the Summary: “This examine presents a complicated airborne transmission threat evaluation mannequin that integrates each short- and long-range routes within the unfold of respiratory viruses, constructing upon the CERN Airborne Mannequin for Indoor Threat Evaluation (CAiMIRA) and aligned with the brand new World Well being Group (WHO) terminology. Because of a two-stage exhaled jet method, the mannequin precisely simulates short-range exposures, thereby enhancing an infection threat predictions throughout various indoor settings. Key findings reveal that in affected person wards, the short-range viral dose is 10-fold larger than the long-range part, highlighting the essential position of shut proximity interactions. Implementation of FFP2 respirators resulted in a exceptional 13-fold discount in viral dose, underscoring the effectiveness of private protecting tools (PPE). Moreover, the mannequin demonstrated that an 8 h publicity in a poorly ventilated workplace can equate to the chance of a 15 min face-to-face, mask-less interplay, emphasizing the significance of bodily distancing and supply management.” • Price a cautious learn. Commentary:

What this implies, is that airborne illness transmission is exceedingly extra sophisticated than what we will predict primarily based solely on the Wells-Riley mannequin. What’s intelligent within the present work is that they’re differentiating between brief and lengthy distance transmission.

That is key

— Al Haddrell (@ukhadds) February 26, 2025

Within the Wells-Riley mannequin, the primary assumption was that the air inside the room was effectively combined. Clearly not so.

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Down, nothing new at major hubs.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) XEC takes over. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has done a great job normalizing successive waves of infection.

[4] (ED) A little uptick.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Weird plateau without exponential growrht

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Leveling out.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland)

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Uptick.

[10] (Travelers: Variants). Don’t know what the dominance of XEC is all about,

[11] Deaths low, positivity leveling out.

[12] Deaths low, ED leveling out.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “Initial jobless claims in the US soared by 22,000 from the previous week to 242,000 on the third week of February, the most in over two months and well above market expectations that they would remain stable at 221,000.” • I wonder why. ‘Tis a mystery!

GDP: “United States GDP Growth Rate” [Trading Economics]. “The US economy expanded an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest growth in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3 and in line with the advance estimate.”

Manufacturing: “United States Durable Goods Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US rose 3.1% month-over-month to $282.3 billion in January 2025, the most in six months and above market expectations of a 2% increase. It follows a downwardly revised 1.8% drop in December. The rebound was driven by transportation equipment, which surged 9.8%, particularly nondefense aircraft and parts (93.9%).”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index fell to -13 in February 2025, the lowest in five months. The declines were driven more by nondurable manufacturing, particularly food, chemical, and paper manufacturing.”

The Economy: “Economists are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession” [Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph]. “Donald Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point. ‘It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,” said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US labour department. Once the pace of job losses crosses a critical line, the multiplier effects can snowball suddenly. Prof Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls – the barometer of US economic health watched closely by markets – could turn viciously negative by late spring, contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the Lehman crisis in 2008. ‘I think we’re going to see historically large drops. Losses of 400,000 a month are not implausible because people are getting nervous out there. It is not just the federal employees being fired: it’s all the other people worried they could be next, so they are cutting back too,’ he told The Telegraph. Torsten Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the likely chain reaction through contractors. ‘We are starting to worry about the downside risks to the economy and markets,’ he said. Mr Slok said it is a mystery as to why credit spreads and equities are still so well-behaved when the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was now higher than at any time during the great recession. Prof Rothstein said the damage would not show up immediately due to lag effects. The ugly months will be in April and May, but by then secondary shocks will have spread far and wide.”

Tech: Let nobody else’s work evade your eyes:

Tech: “Monitoring You from a Thousand Miles Away! Turning a Bluetooth System into an Apple AirTag With out Root Privileges” [nroottag]. “Apple’s Discover My community, leveraging over a billion energetic Apple units, is the world’s largest device-locating community. We examine the potential misuse of this community to maliciously monitor Bluetooth units. We current nRootTag, a novel assault methodology that transforms computer systems into trackable “AirTags” with out requiring root privileges. The assault achieves successful fee of over 90% inside minutes at a value of just a few US {dollars}. Or, a rainbow desk will be constructed to go looking keys immediately. Subsequently, it will possibly find a pc in minutes, posing a considerable threat to person privateness and security. The assault is efficient on Linux, Home windows, and Android techniques, and will be employed to trace desktops, laptops, smartphones, and IoT units. Our complete analysis demonstrates nRootTag’s effectiveness and effectivity throughout varied situations.” • Yikes!

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 23 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 22 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 46 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 26 at 1:44:02 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

One reader requested for a railroad tune:

“I’d in all probability transfer it just a bit farther down the road.”

Gallery

I wished to make a joke about aptronyms and “Whistler,” however sadly this portray seems to be by Turner:

Class Warfare

“ILA Members Ratify 6-12 months Contract with Lodging for Know-how” [Maritime Executive]. “The membership of the International Longshoremen’s’ Association officially ratified the new 6-year contract on Tuesday, February 25, bringing to close one of the most contentious contract negotiations in decades. The ILA is calling the new contract the ‘gold standard’ for dockworker unions globally while saying with the ratification there would be ‘labor peace’ and that the ILA would be working in partnership with USMX to help all ILA ports grow and flourish…. [ILA President Harold Daggett] is publicly declaring a key win saying it is the greatest contract in ILA history. He reports it provides ‘full protections against automation,’ without providing details on the contract terms. The ILA had firmly declared it would not accept automation or semi-automation for any port operations. In December 2024, then President-elect Donald Trump met with the union leaders. He also issued a strong statement against port automation.” • Hmm.