July Nymex pure gasoline (NGN25) on Friday closed up by +0.089 (+2.55%), breaking a string of 4 consecutive losses.
July nat-gas costs on Friday closed increased on carry-over assist from a +6% surge in European pure gasoline costs that was prompted by Israel’s navy assault on Iran. There may be concern that any try by Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz may disrupt LNG shipments by way of that Strait, which account for about 20% of worldwide LNG commerce. Additionally, Israel quickly shut down its Leviathan gasoline subject because of safety issues, which disrupted gasoline pipeline shipments to Egypt.
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Nat-gas costs additionally noticed assist from forecasts for warmer temperatures to maneuver throughout the US. Vaisala forecasted that almost all the US will see above-normal temperatures from June 23-27, which might enhance nat-gas demand from utilities to run air con.
Decrease-48 state dry gasoline manufacturing Friday was 105.4 bcf/day (+3.2% y/y), in response to BNEF. Decrease-48 state gasoline demand Friday was 70.3 bcf/day (-5.2% y/y), in response to BNEF. LNG internet flows to US LNG export terminals Friday have been 13.8 bcf/day (+1.3% w/w), in response to BNEF.
A decline in US electrical energy output is adverse for nat-gas demand from utility suppliers. The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that complete US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended June 7 fell -2.7% y/y to 82,114 GWh (gigawatt hours), though US electrical energy output within the 52-week interval ending June 7 rose +3.0% y/y to 4,246,137 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 6 rose +109 bcf, above expectations of +108 bcf and nicely above the 5-year common construct for this time of yr of +87 bcf. As of June 6, nat-gas inventories have been down -9.0% y/y and +5.4% above their 5-year seasonal common, signaling sufficient nat-gas provides. In Europe, gasoline storage was 52% full as of June 10, versus the 5-year seasonal common of 62% full for this time of yr.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the variety of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending June 13 fell by -1 to 113, falling again from the earlier week’s 15-month excessive of 114 rigs. Previously 9 months, gasoline rigs have risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted in September 2024.
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