The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) right this moment is down by -0.10%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.52%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.13%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.60%.
Inventory indexes are barely decrease right this moment as retail shares start to report their earnings. The weak point within the Magnificent Seven shares right this moment is weighing on the general market.
On the constructive aspect, Dwelling Depot recovered from early losses and is up greater than +4% to steer the Dow Jones industrials larger after reporting a +3% bounce in July comparable same-store gross sales. Lowes and Goal will report their earnings on Wednesday, and Walmart will report on Thursday.
Decrease bond yields right this moment are supportive of shares, with the 10-year T-note yield down -2 bp to 4.31%. US authorities debt garnered help right this moment after S&P World Scores affirmed its AA+ long-term score and A-1+ short-term score on US debt and mentioned the US can keep its credit score energy regardless of the fiscal hit of its latest spending invoice as a result of tariff revenues will “usually offset weaker fiscal outcomes.”
In the present day’s US housing information was combined. US Jul housing begins unexpectedly rose +5.2% m/m to a 5-month excessive of 1.428 million, stronger than expectations of a decline to 1.297 million. Nevertheless, Jul constructing permits, a proxy for future development, fell -2.8% m/m to a 5-year low of 1.354 million, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m to 1.386 million.
Diplomatic talks over the warfare in Ukraine proceed to make headway. Ukraine President Zelenskiy mentioned he got here away with a dedication from President Trump late Monday to affix safety ensures for any peace deal and reserve dialogue on territorial swaps with Russia for later. The result of the talks may have macroeconomic implications concerning tariffs and oil costs, and will, in fact, have vital penalties for European safety.
The main target of the markets this week shall be on any new tariff information and indicators of progress towards a Ukraine peace deal, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders persevering with their assembly with President Trump in Washington. On Wednesday, the minutes of the July 29-30 FOMC assembly shall be launched. On Thursday, weekly preliminary unemployment claims are anticipated to climb by +1,000 to 225,000 and the Aug Philadelphia Fed enterprise outlook survey is predicted to fall to six.7 from 15.9 in July. Additionally, the Aug S&P manufacturing PMI is predicted to stay unchanged at 49.8. As well as, Jul current residence gross sales are anticipated to fall -0.3% m/m to three.92 million. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell speaks on the financial outlook on the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium at Jackson Gap, Wyoming.
Concerning tariffs, President Trump widened metal and aluminum tariffs to incorporate greater than 400 shopper objects that comprise the metals, comparable to bikes, auto elements, furnishings parts, and tableware. The change went into impact on Monday and didn’t exclude items already in transit. Final Friday, Mr. Trump mentioned, “I will be setting tariffs subsequent week and the week after on metal and on, I’d say chips – chips and semiconductors, we’ll be setting someday subsequent week, week after.” Mr. Trump final week mentioned he deliberate a 100% tariff on semiconductors however would exempt corporations that transfer chip manufacturing to the US. Mr. Trump additionally talked about 200% or 300% tariffs on chips.
In different latest tariff information, Mr. Trump final Tuesday prolonged the tariff truce with China for an additional 90 days till November. On August 6, Mr. Trump introduced that he’ll double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the present 25% tariff, attributable to India’s purchases of Russian oil. On August 5, Mr. Trump mentioned that US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports could be introduced “throughout the subsequent week or so.” Based on Bloomberg Economics, the typical US tariff will rise to fifteen.2% if charges are applied as introduced, up from 13.3% earlier, and considerably larger than the two.3% in 2024 earlier than the tariffs have been introduced.
Federal funds futures costs are discounting the probabilities for a -25 bp fee lower at 84% on the September 16-17 FOMC assembly, down from 93% final Thursday. The markets are discounting the probabilities at 53% for a second -25 bp fee lower on the following assembly on October 28-29.
Earnings experiences point out that S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are on monitor to rise +9.1% y/y, significantly better than the pre-season expectations of +2.8% y/y and probably the most in 4 years, in accordance with Bloomberg Intelligence. With over 92% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, about 82% of corporations exceeded revenue estimates.
Abroad inventory markets right this moment are combined. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a 4.75-month excessive and is up +0.75%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 10-year excessive and closed down -0.02%. Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 retreated from a brand new file excessive and closed down -0.38%.
Curiosity Charges
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU25) right this moment are up +6 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -2.5 bp to 4.308%. Sep T-notes are shifting larger right this moment after S&P World Scores mentioned that larger revenues from tariffs will assist soften the blow to the US’s fiscal well being from the president’s tax cuts, enabling the nation to keep up its AA+ long-term credit standing. The weak point in shares right this moment can also be supporting safe-haven demand for T-notes. Positive aspects in T-notes are restricted attributable to issues that final week’s bearish US July CPI and PPI experiences may maintain the Fed from chopping rates of interest at subsequent month’s FOMC assembly.
European authorities bond yields right this moment are shifting decrease. The ten-year German bund yield is down -0.2 bp to 2.761%. The ten-year UK gilt yield fell from a 2.5-month excessive of 4.756% and is down by -0.3 bp to 4.735%.
Swaps are discounting the probabilities at 6% for a -25 bp fee lower by the ECB on the September 11 coverage assembly.
US Inventory Movers
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is down greater than -39% after a Section 2 trial of its oral weight reduction drug confirmed 28% of sufferers discontinued therapy over tolerability issues.
Fabrinet (FN) is down greater than -10% after it mentioned it expects to see a sequential dip in datacom section income in its fiscal Q1, citing provide constraints for some essential parts.
Medtronic Plc (MDT) is down greater than -5% to steer losers within the S&P 500 after reporting Q1 adjusted working margin of 23.6%, weaker than the consensus of 23.7%.
Superior Micro Gadgets (AMD) is down greater than -3% after GF Securities downgraded the inventory to carry from purchase.
Amer Sports activities (AS) is down greater than -2% after forecasting Q3 adjusted working margin of 12% to 13%, beneath the consensus of 13%.
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) is down greater than -2% after GLJ Analysis initiated protection on the inventory with a advice of promote and a worth goal of $112.
Cybersecurity shares are climbing right this moment, led by a +4% bounce in Palo Alto Networks (PANW) after it forecast 2026 income of $10.48 billion-$10.53 billion, stronger than the consensus of $10.44 billion. CyberArk Software program Ltd (CYBR) is up greater than +5%, and Zscaler (ZS) and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) are up greater than +0.50%.
Intel (INTC) is up greater than +10% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after SoftBank Group Corp agreed to purchase $2 billion of the corporate’s inventory.
Dwelling Depot (HD) recovered from an early decline and is up greater than +4% to steer gainers within the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting that July comparable same-store gross sales rose greater than +3%.
Prologis (PLD) is up greater than +3% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the inventory to outperform from impartial with a worth goal of $118.
Caterpillar (CAT) is up greater than +1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the inventory to outperform from consistent with a worth goal of $476.
Peabody Vitality (BTU) is up greater than +1% after deciding to stroll away from a $3.8 billion deal to purchase the steelmaking coal enterprise from Anglo American Plc following a fireplace at Anglo’s Australian mine.
Earnings Experiences(8/19/2025)
Amer Sports activities Inc (AS), Dwelling Depot Inc/The (HD), Jack Henry & Associates Inc (JKHY), James Hardie Industries PLC (JHX), Keysight Applied sciences Inc (KEYS), Medtronic PLC (MDT), Toll Brothers Inc (TOL), Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK).
On the date of publication, Wealthy Asplund didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All info and knowledge on this article is solely for informational functions. This text was initially revealed on Barchart.com
