March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Thursday closed up +0.27 (+1.67%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +5.90 (+1.30%).
Sugar costs settled sharply larger on Thursday as a result of issues over decrease sugarcane yields in Brazil. Unica reported Thursday that Brazil’s Middle South sugarcane crush within the first half of September was up +6.9% y/y to 46 MMT. Nevertheless, the sugar content material within the cane declined, signaling decrease sugar manufacturing because the sugar content material in crushed cane dropped to 154.58 kilogram per ton (kg/ton) versus 160.07 kg/ton a yr earlier.
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On Tuesday, NY sugar rallied to a 1.5-month nearest-futures (V25) excessive, and London sugar climbed to a 2-week excessive on indicators of stronger world demand as Pakistan has positioned orders for a complete of 320,000 MT of sugar for instant supply.
Final Tuesday, NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 4-year low as they prolonged their 7-month downtrend as a result of prospects of considerable world sugar provides. Final Tuesday, StoneX projected a worldwide sugar surplus of +2.8 MMT for the upcoming 2025/26 season, switching from a deficit of -4.7 MMT within the 2024/25 season.
Larger sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Unica reported Thursday that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the first half of September rose by +15.7% y/y to three.622 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of August elevated to 53.49% from 47.74% the identical time final yr. Nevertheless, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by mid-September fell -0.1% y/y to 30.388 MMT.
The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is unfavorable for sugar costs, as considerable monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported Tuesday that the cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular and the strongest monsoon in 5 years.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in India is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That might observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in accordance with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
One other bearish issue for sugar was the latest assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India might divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and should immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest sugar producer.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp on Wednesday projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will improve by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
On August 29, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a worldwide sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits. The ISO tasks a worldwide 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, bettering from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally tasks 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will improve +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
Expectations for considerable sugar provides are bearish for costs. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On Could 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, lower its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields as a result of drought and extreme warmth.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT as a result of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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