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Apple stock is 50% higher so far this year.
Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg
Apple
’s
June quarter earnings report isn’t going to be much of a growth story, and with the stock already 50% higher for the year to date, there isn’t much room for error.
But the company’s legion of bullish analysts see better growth ahead, and project further gains for what is already the world’s most valued company, with a $3.1 trillion market cap.
Apple (ticker: AAPL) will report after the close of trading Thursday. For the fiscal third quarter, analysts expect it to report sales of $81.9 billion, down about 1% from the year earlier quarter, with a profit of $1.19 a share, down a penny from a year ago.
The Street sees $40.3 billion in sales for the iPhone, which would be down about 1%, according to FactSet, with Mac sales of $6.6 billion, and iPad sales of $6.5 billion, both off about 10%. Those declines are expected to be offset by the “wearables, home and accessories” category, with estimated sales of $8.3 billion, up 3%, and services revenue of $20.8 billion, up 6%.
One key to the quarter will be how Apple does in its “Greater China” category, which includes the mainland as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau. Street estimates call for $13.6 billion in revenue, which would be down 7%. Revenue from the Americas is projected to be $38 billion, up 1.5% from a year earlier.
In reporting March quarter results, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said June revenue performance would be comparable to the March quarter, which was down 2.5% from a year earlier. Maestri said at the time that currency would reduce revenue by about four percentage points, and the services business would continue to face macroeconomic headwinds in digital advertising and gaming.
Note the digital ad business in the quarter at both
Alphabet
(GOOGL) and
Meta Platforms
(META) topped Street estimates, which could be a positive factor. And stabilization of the dollar could mean a smaller currency impact than Maestri had expected.
Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar wrote in a research note previewing the quarter that “China handset concerns for Apple are a bit overblown.” He thinks the company’s earnings call will be well received, driven by resilience from the Chinese and iPhone segments. Kumar on Monday repeated his Overweight rating, while lifting his target price to $220, from $180.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives thinks Apple should report at least an in-line quarter on iPhone revenue, and potentially better than that, given “a clear uptick in demand around the key China region this quarter” for iPhones.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]