December arabica espresso (KCZ25) at the moment is up +6.15 (+1.55%), and November ICE robusta espresso (RMX25) is down -35 (-0.77%).
Espresso costs at the moment are blended. Provide considerations are underpinning arabica espresso costs as President Trump is predicted to announce new tariffs on Columbia, the world’s second-largest producer of arabica espresso beans. Additionally, energy within the Brazilian actual (^USDBRL) is supportive for arabica espresso as the actual climbed to a 1-week excessive in opposition to the greenback at the moment. The stronger actual discourages export gross sales from Brazil’s espresso producers.
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Robusta espresso is beneath strain attributable to forecasts for rain in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the nation’s main coffee-producing area, which is predicted to help crop growth and occasional yields. The Dak Lak province, the nation’s largest coffee-growing space, is forecast to obtain 70 mm of rain over the following week in contrast with a historic common of 61.3 mm.
Espresso costs have help from shrinking ICE espresso inventories. The 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil have led to a pointy drawdown in ICE espresso inventories. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 19-month low of 467,110 luggage final Friday, and ICE robusta espresso inventories fell to a 3-month low of 6,160 tons at the moment. American consumers are voiding new contracts for purchases of Brazilian espresso beans as a result of 50% tariffs imposed on US imports from Brazil, thereby tightening US provides, as a couple of third of America’s unroasted espresso comes from Brazil.
Hopes that fifty% tariffs on Brazilian items will quickly be eliminated are damaging for espresso costs. Final Thursday, US Commerce Consultant Greer mentioned he and Secretary of State Rubio had “very constructive talks” concerning commerce with Brazilian Minister of International Affairs Vieira. Either side mentioned they may schedule a gathering between President Trump and President Lulu on the earliest attainable event.
An easing of dry situations in Brazil is bearish for espresso costs. Somar Meteorologia reported at the moment that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing space, Minas Gerais, obtained 44.7 mm of rain through the week ended October 18, or 136% of the historic common.
Espresso costs additionally garnered help after the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 16 elevated the probability of a La Niña climate system within the southern hemisphere from October to December to 71%, which might convey extreme dry climate to Brazil and hurt the 2026/27 espresso crop. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica espresso.
Robusta espresso can also be beneath strain attributable to a rise in espresso provides from Vietnam. The Vietnam Nationwide Statistics Workplace reported Monday that Vietnam’s Jan-Sep 2025 espresso exports had been up +10.9% y/y to 1.230 MMT.
Stronger espresso exports are bearish for costs after the Worldwide Espresso Group (ICO) reported final Monday that world espresso exports for the present advertising and marketing yr (Oct-Aug) rose +0.2% y/y to 127.92 million luggage, indicating enough exports and provides.
Espresso costs discovered help after Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, minimize its Brazil 2025 arabica espresso crop estimate on September 4 by -4.9% to 35.2 million luggage from a Might forecast of 37.0 million luggage. Conab additionally decreased its whole Brazil 2025 espresso manufacturing estimate by 0.9% to 55.2 million luggage, from a Might estimate of 55.7 million luggage.
A bumper robusta espresso crop in Vietnam is bearish for costs. Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing is projected to climb +6% y/y to 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million luggage, a 4-year excessive. Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta espresso.
The USDA’s International Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world espresso manufacturing in 2025/26 will improve by +2.5% y/y to a file 178.68 million luggage, with a -1.7% lower in arabica manufacturing to 97.022 million luggage and a +7.9% improve in robusta manufacturing to 81.658 million luggage. FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 espresso manufacturing will improve by +0.5% y/y to 65 million luggage and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 espresso output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year excessive of 31 million luggage. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending shares will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million luggage from 21.752 million luggage in 2024/25. Nonetheless, Volcafe is projecting a worldwide 2025/26 arabica espresso deficit of -8.5 million luggage, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive yr of deficits.
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