Final week, I wrote about the Genesis Mission — the brand new nationwide AI program designed to maintain the USA within the lead as synthetic intelligence accelerates towards superintelligence (ASI).
Naturally, I’m enthusiastic about what this implies for our future. However there’s one other piece to this ASI race that makes me rather less optimistic.
As a result of even when we unleash our nationwide labs to construct the perfect fashions, and even when the Genesis Mission delivers every little thing it guarantees…
None of this issues if we don’t have sufficient energy.
And that brings me to this week’s chart.
As you possibly can see, it exhibits China’s electrical energy consumption from 2000 to at this time. And the curve isn’t simply steep.
It’s practically vertical.
In sensible phrases, China added the equal of a whole European Union’s value of electrical energy demand in simply six years.
Now, you could possibly simply chalk this up as financial development. In any case, China has needed to quickly improve its infrastructure during the last 20 years to assist its manufacturing growth.
However I additionally see this as strategic positioning.
China is aware of that AI, automation and superior manufacturing will push international electrical energy demand to ranges the West isn’t prepared for. And somewhat than await the world to adapt, it has spent a long time constructing era, transmission traces and large-scale industrial capability at a tempo we haven’t matched.
In the meantime, the U.S. is straining to maintain up with its personal wants.
Information facilities are increasing quicker than utilities can approve new era. Grid operators are warning about provide gaps. And in a number of areas, new industrial tasks are being delayed as a result of there merely isn’t sufficient energy to assist them.
As I’ve mentioned for the previous 12 months, I imagine electrical energy might be a fair greater bottleneck for AI than chips within the close to future.
And China has an enormous lead in electrical energy manufacturing.
Right here’s My Take
The race to ASI can be a race to construct the power infrastructure that may assist it.
And once you have a look at China’s energy curve, you see a rustic that clearly understands this.
That doesn’t imply the USA can’t shut the hole. Our grid is perhaps older, however after we put our minds to it, our innovation cycle will be extremely quick.
And with the Genesis Mission now underway, we’re lastly treating energy as a part of a nationwide technique.
However we have to stay conscious that electrical energy will change into a deciding issue wherein nation can scale AI the quickest. And China’s explosive electrical energy development provides it a head begin.
If the USA needs to steer the race to superintelligence, upgrading our grid might be simply as necessary as constructing new AI fashions.
Now we have the sources to shut this power hole.
We’ll discover out quickly sufficient if we now have the urgency.
Regards,
Ian King
Chief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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