I’ve adopted the conflict in Ukraine carefully since 2022, and now that the conflict appears to be heading towards a conclusion, I wish to supply some observations.
The Conflict Was Deliberate and Guided by Western Governments
Current revelations have ended the pretense that Ukraine has been directing its conflict towards Russia independently with solely monetary and logistical help from the U.S. and NATO. In February and March of this yr, the New York Instances printed two articles confirming what had been extensively claimed by critics of U.S. involvement within the Ukraine conflict: that the U.S. performed an in depth function in laying the groundwork for navy motion towards Russia and was actively directing the ensuing conflict. The NYT reported that the U.S. established CIA bases in Ukraine years earlier than the Russian invasion and that the conflict was being directed to a terrific extent by U.S. navy personnel in Germany.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/world/europe/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html?searchResultPosition=1
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html
These revelations supplied clear proof that the U.S. and NATO nations have been combating a proxy conflict towards Russia, and never merely lending materials help to Ukraine. Secretary of State Rubio made this official in an interview assertion on March 5, 2025.
Rubio observes Lent and acknowledges U.S. proxy conflict in Ukraine
Western Mass Media Retailers Are Dropping Credibility
The emergence of in depth impartial Web media protection of the conflict has undermined the credibility of legacy mass media. The huge quantity of video and map knowledge coming from the Ukraine battlefield permits day by day commentary of shifting positions and battle traces. The fog of conflict has been lifted to a substantial diploma by the oblique affirmation of troop positions by geolocated strikes on these positions. Thus, the belligerents are sometimes undoing their very own propaganda once they flow into movies of their assaults on enemy forces.
On the whole, Ukraine conflict protection from impartial Web sources has been days and even weeks forward of the developments reported in mass media shops. A very good instance of such shut protection is the Army Abstract Channel. Though “Dima,” the proprietor of the channel, over-editorializes his commentary, his twice-daily reviews of battlefield actions are primarily based on a number of data sources weighted by reliability and are often right. There isn’t any equal protection from legacy media. As an alternative, Western mass media proceed to spin narratives favorable to Ukraine primarily based on amplified constructive occasions whereas ignoring or tardily reporting unfavorable battlefield developments.
Consultant Army Abstract Channel battlefield day by day standing map
For instance, on June 3, 2025, The New York Instances printed a entrance web page article describing a profitable drone assault on Russian airbases as an illustration of Ukraine’s skill to innovate strategically and offset Russia’s materials benefits within the conflict. There was no point out of the regular crumbling of Ukraine’s defenses in Donbas or Sumy. Thus, the “newspaper of document” created an phantasm of Ukraine holding its personal whereas goal data from the battlefield indicated a significantly deteriorating scenario.
Sadly, public opinion remains to be closely influenced by mainstream media shops that successfully function as components of the U.S. military-industrial-complex. Most of those institution publishers and broadcasters have supported each disastrous U.S. conflict since 9/11. Though their credibility is weakening, the grip of the foremost media companies on public opinion stays sturdy sufficient to allow ruinous navy adventures.
Ukraine Will Lose the Conflict
The elemental mismatch between the navy potential of Ukraine and Russia was evident on the outset of the conflict, however this was dismissed by U.S. coverage makers due to ideological blindness. It was assumed that Ukraine, aided and equipped by NATO, would prevail towards an incompetent and inefficient Russian navy.
Aside from the numerical disparity in navy power, nationwide historical past additionally weighed towards combating this conflict. The historic sample of Russia’s giant wars has been that of a stumbling begin, then a gradual, grinding advance to (typically ugly) victory. From Borodino in 1812, to Stalingrad in 1943, to Chechnya in 2000, to Georgia in 2008, each time Russia has absolutely dedicated to a conflict, it has prevailed. Nonetheless, with a whole disregard for navy info and historical past, the Washington neocons determined to roll the cube on Ukraine.
After preliminary reverses within the first years of the Ukraine conflict, the Russians started adapting quickly, deploying extra troops, revising their techniques, and introducing new weaponry. An bold Ukrainian offensive in 2023, spearheaded by Western weapons, failed fully. Starting with the autumn of Avdiivka in February 2024, Russia has steadily gained floor, and Ukraine has faltered. The one Ukrainian offensive of current word, a push into Kursk in August 2024, was defeated and reversed after a number of months of combating that inflicted giant materials and manpower losses on Ukraine.
Western sources, as soon as flowing abundantly into Ukraine, at the moment are dwindling, leaving Ukraine wanting weapons and munitions. Ukraine is more and more reliant on drones to sluggish Russian advances, however drones can’t substitute fully for artillery, plane, or armored autos, all of that are in diminishing provide. In the meantime, Russia’s giant and rising navy industrial base is offering a gradual move of weaponry to its forces in Ukraine. The Russian technique of stretching Ukraine’s inadequate manpower over a protracted entrance, coupled with devastating assaults at weak factors, is steadily breaking down the defensive traces. Barring direct intervention of NATO forces, Ukraine can solely delay defeat whereas incurring ruinous losses.
Though there’s some likelihood that negotiations will finish the conflict within the close to future, the outlook for Ukraine is bleak. Peace phrases wouldn’t depart prewar Ukraine intact, possible ceding at the least Crimea, Donetsk, and Luchansk areas to Russia. Continuation of the conflict will end in an much more unfavorable end result, presumably making Ukraine a dysfunctional rump state bereft of its best lands and going through pricey and unsure reconstruction.
There Have Been Vital Developments in Typical Warfare
The Ukraine conflict has been a testing floor for navy expertise, and the outcomes could have penalties for future armed conflicts. Tanks and plane, previously thought-about the dominant weapons in typical conflict are being challenged successfully by precision guided missiles and drones. This means that uneven warfare will grow to be tougher for nations counting on the prevalence of enormous arsenals of older weapons. Insurgents and small nations will more and more arm themselves with comparatively cheap precison-guided weaponry to counter the navy capabilities of main powers.
Drones have shortly grow to be a distinguished participant on the Ukraine battlefield, offering reconnaissance and strike capabilities at a far decrease value than plane methods and at low danger to pilots. Fundamental drones are remotely operated and guided by radio hyperlinks. These hyperlinks may be jammed, however the jamming gear must be working on the precise frequencies, on the proper place, and the precise time, so it might probably’t all the time cease a drone. The most recent drones talk over a protracted fiber optic cable, so their alerts are proof against jamming. Drones may be launched from nearly wherever, so they’re a remarkably versatile weapon, as demonstrated within the current assault on Russian airbases. With the declining numbers of Ukraine’s artillery and armored autos, drones have grow to be the principle weapon retarding the advance of Russian forces as a result of large-scale assaults are hazardous within the presence of quite a few assault drones. The Ukrainians have additionally used naval drones which have sunk just a few Russian ships within the Black Sea and precipitated the shifting of Russian naval forces away from Crimea.
Fiber optic guided drone – lethal correct and jam-proof
Hypersonic missiles have been employed for the primary time in large-scale warfare. Russian has used three sorts of hypersonic missiles within the Ukraine conflict. Becasuse of their nice velocity, these missiles are tough to intercept, even for the Patriot system, they usually have super harmful energy due to their skill to destroy deeply buried targets, resembling command bunkers or gear storage websites. The Oreshnik missile delivers non-explosive kinetic power warheads of novel design and reportedly destroyed an in depth underground manufacturing facility facility. NATO has no typical missiles with equal capabilities.
Glide bombs are comparatively easy however extremely efficient weapons which have made a giant contribution to Russia’s rising success on the battlefield in Ukraine. By attaching folding wings and a steering system to odd aerial bombs Russia has made its monumental stock of Chilly Conflict period bombs convertible to precision munitions. When launched from excessive altitude, the 50-90 Km vary of glide bombs permits their provider plane to remain outdoors the vary of Ukrainian air defenses. These bombs have made it very tough for Ukraine to carry defensive positions, for the reason that bigger glide bombs are able to destroying even essentially the most formidable fortifications. Though the U.S. has equipped equal guided bombs to Ukraine, there are too few Ukrainian assault plane left to ship these bombs in amount. Russia is dropping about 100 glide bombs day by day on Ukrainian positions.
What Comes Subsequent
U.S. international coverage makers won’t study to keep away from one other debacle like Ukraine. Quite the opposite, their skill to stroll away from the ruins of Ukraine with none political repercussions will reinforce their perception that they’ve a repeatable method for sustaining a bloated navy, promoting weapons, and beginning wars of comfort. This sample of U.S. international coverage failures stretches from Vietnam to the current day, with a corresponding path of demise and destruction.
I anticipate one other iteration of this cyclic sample in a proxy or direct U.S. conflict towards China within the Pacific. Substitute the Taiwan independence crimson line for the Ukraine in NATO crimson line, and you’ve got a brand new casus belli situation to promote to the general public: an evil authoritarian regime in China invading the plucky small democratic nation of Taiwan. At any time when rising the U.S. protection funds is unsure, a confrontation within the South China Sea or sending extra troops to Taiwan may be organized to convey China nearer to the brink of conflict. The pernicious cycle of navy overreach will possible proceed till the U.S. is both exhausted financially or decisively defeated militarily. In the meantime, due to Web media, the entire world will watch the march of folly.
