Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) attracted a stampede of bulls with its IPO on Nov. 9, 2021. The electrical automobile (EV) maker went public at $78 per share, and its inventory opened at $106.75 earlier than touching a document excessive of $172.01 only a week later.
At that peak, Rivian’s market cap hit $153 billion, which was 92 instances increased than the income it might generate in 2022. It briefly made the tiny EV maker extra invaluable than Ford or Normal Motors.
Rivian’s inventory initially soared for 3 causes: It was backed by Amazon and Ford, it was already producing hundreds of EVs, and it went public on the apex of the meme inventory craze. However in the present day, Rivian shares commerce for about $10, giving it a far humbler market cap of $10 billion. That is lower than 2 instances the income it is anticipated to generate subsequent yr.
The bulls fled as Rivian’s development slowed, it racked up steep losses, and rising rates of interest popped its bubbly valuations. Ford additionally ditched its plans to co-develop an electrical pickup with Rivian in 2021 and liquidated most of its stake within the firm in 2022. However may shopping for Rivian now whereas the market is shunning it set you up for large beneficial properties sooner or later?
Why did Rivian disappoint its buyers?
Rivian presently produces three fashions of car: the R1T pickup, the R1S SUV, and a customized supply van it sells to Amazon. Earlier than its public debut, Rivian claimed it might produce 50,000 autos in 2022. As a substitute, it produced 24,337 autos, and solely delivered 20,332. It blamed these disappointing numbers on provide chain constraints, the cooling development of the EV market, and different macro headwinds throughout the business.
In 2023, Rivian overcame these challenges to provide 57,232 EVs and ship 50,122. Its development accelerated because it resolved its provide chain issues and ramped up manufacturing of its in-house Enduro drive unit to chop prices.
However for 2024, Rivian solely expects to provide between 47,000 and 49,000 autos. As soon as once more, it blamed provide chain issues — however its issues have been exacerbated by the non permanent shutdown of its principal plant in Illinois for upgrades in April, intense competitors within the EV area, and better rates of interest. It expects its full-year deliveries to land between 50,500 and 52,000 EVs.
Can Rivian lastly scale up its enterprise?
Rivian’s income soared by 167% to $4.43 billion in 2023, nevertheless it solely barely narrowed its internet loss from $6.75 billion to $5.43 billion. For 2024, analysts anticipate its income to rise by simply 6% to $4.71 billion, however anticipate it to slim its internet loss to $4.88 billion. These losses are steep, however Rivian nonetheless had $9.18 billion in complete liquidity (together with $7.87 billion in money, money equivalents, and short-term investments) on its books on the finish of June.
Volkswagen additionally launched a brand new three way partnership with Rivian in June to co-develop new EV structure and software program. As a part of the deal, the German automaker plans to speculate as much as $5 billion in Rivian and the three way partnership over the following two years. That contemporary money ought to present Rivian the respiratory room to carry its cheaper new R2 SUV to market in 2026, launch its higher-end R3 and R3X SUVs in 2026 and 2027, and proceed to satisfy Amazon’s huge order for 100,000 electrical supply vans by way of 2030. It additionally plans to begin promoting a few of these supply vans to different clients over the following few years.
To assist its enlargement plans, Rivian not too long ago utilized for a federal mortgage, searching for funds to renew building on a brand new $5 billion plant in Georgia that would ultimately triple its annual manufacturing capability. That roadmap sounds promising, however Rivian nonetheless must resolve its newest provide chain bottlenecks and show that it could actually scale up its enterprise.
Sadly, Rivian insiders have offered practically 86 instances as many shares as they purchased over the previous three months, so it would take a very long time for it to stabilize its shaky enterprise and persuade the market that it deserves the next valuation. On the brilliant aspect, Amazon continues to be holding its stake in Rivian and stays its high investor.
May Rivian’s inventory set you up for all times?
Rivian’s low price-to-sales ratio may make it a tempting turnaround play for value-seeking buyers. If it could actually scale up its enterprise in the identical approach Tesla did over the previous decade, it could possibly be a millionaire-maker inventory from right here. Nonetheless, Tesla established an early-mover benefit within the EV area, was aided by extra beneficiant authorities subsidies, and did not face as a lot direct competitors throughout its enlargement section. It is too early to imagine Rivian may replicate Tesla’s development trajectory.
However with Rivian shares buying and selling at these costs, the draw back danger for brand spanking new buyers could possibly be restricted — and it could possibly be a worthwhile funding for aggressive speculative buyers searching for long-term beneficial properties. Rivian actually has the potential to show a modest funding into a serious asset, however its inventory may additionally simply be minimize in half once more (or worse) if the corporate cannot meaningfully ramp up EV manufacturing.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Entire Meals Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Idiot’s board of administrators. Leo Solar has positions in Amazon. The Motley Idiot has positions in and recommends Amazon, Tesla, and Volkswagen. The Motley Idiot recommends Normal Motors and Volkswagen Ag and recommends the next choices: lengthy January 2025 $25 calls on Normal Motors. The Motley Idiot has a disclosure coverage.
May Shopping for Rivian Automotive Inventory Right now Set You Up for Life? was initially revealed by The Motley Idiot