By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
“At what level lets count on the strategy of hazard?” –Abraham Lincoln, The Lyceum Deal with
Right here is the present EC standing from 270toWin (which nets out the identical as O.G. Larry Sabato’s):
Agonizingly shut, then.
I believe it’s truthful to say that if the Democrats consider what they are saying about Trump, then they can not probably enable him to take workplace. And but, there was curiously little public dialogue about what they may really do to stop that occasion, ought to Trump be able to win the Electoral Faculty (EC) vote, the day after Election Day.
I might speculate that dialogue of “The Day After” has taken place — like so many issues of significance, today — in rooms we’ll by no means enter. And so — once more as like so many issues of significance — we don’t actually know what anybody is after. However it might be irresponsible to not speculate. On this submit, I’m going to deal with what the Democrats may do, partly as a result of I got here up via the Democrats, so I’m extra aware of the gamers and their collective mentality. Extra importantly, from 2016 (RussiaGate) – 2020 (lawfare), the Democrats have kind.
Readers will recall that I’ve periodically muttered that the events should be wargaming out 2024 (simply as Democrats did in 2020). Actually, the Democrats are doing simply that. On this submit, I’ll first evaluate 2020’s “Transition Integrity Venture” with 2024’s “Democracy Futures Venture.” I’ll then current one situation that appears to have emerged from no matter hive thoughts produced the wargame, and that will depend on the useful equal of a Coloration Revolution. I’ll then speculate on the place the vitality to mobilize such a colour revolution would come from, and who the footsoldiers could be. Lastly, I’ll current the closest factor there was in Election 2016 to a colour revolution, the Girls’s March (“pink pussy hats”), and speculate how a successor could be modified to attain better success via the admixture of extra objects from the checklist of Gene Sharp’s “198 Strategies of Non-Violent Resistance” (Sharp being the theorist of colour revolutions). After all, all this meta-war gaming is a bit of bit mad, with a hegemonic but unelected institution utilizing the instruments of, er, resistance, to hold out an autogolpe, however right here we’re. As a result of we all know so little, I must string collectively loads of this with bubbe gum and baling wire (that being my choice to a very tight yarn diagram). I hope this submit stimulates dialogue, at the very least.
Initiatives to Defend “Our Democracy”: 2020 and 2024
Vox describes Election 2020’s Transition Integrity[1] Venture (TIP) (Aug 18, 2020):
This will likely sound far-fetched. However in June, a company referred to as the Transition Integrity Venture (TIP) convened a bunch of greater than 100 bipartisan specialists to simulate what may occur the day after Election Day — working a sort of political “warfare sport” the place veteran Democrats role-played because the Biden marketing campaign and veteran Republicans acted because the Trump group.
They simulated 4 eventualities: a giant Biden victory, a slim Biden win, an indeterminate outcome à la the 2000 election, and a slim Trump victory. In each situation however an enormous Biden blowout, issues went south.
Listed here are the outcomes of the wargames. Extra:
“We anticipate lawsuits, divergent media narratives, makes an attempt to cease the counting of ballots, and protests drawing folks from each side,” TIP writes in a post-exercise report summarizing their findings. “The potential for violent battle is excessive, notably since Trump encourages his supporters to take up arms.”
Nils Gilman, the vp of applications on the Berggruen Institute suppose tank, is among the mission’s co-founders. In his view, the train highlighted key flaws in our electoral system, starting from the rickety 18th-century design of the presidential election system to our trendy plague of hyperpartisanship. These issues, Gilman says, make the electoral system notably weak to a catastrophic collapse in 2020 — and a few of them may nonetheless be addressed earlier than it’s too late.
Be aware that mass mobilization has fashioned a part of Democrat “Day After” pondering since 2020[2]:
Nils Gilman, the vp of applications on the Berggruen Institute suppose tank, is among the mission’s co-founders…. And bizarre residents, Gilman says, “should be ready to take to the road in nonviolent protest” if the outcomes seem like corrupted — one of many final traces of protection when a political system breaks down.
Biden received, so no mass mobilization was wanted.
The Guardian describes Election 2024’s (notably bipartisan) Democracy Futures Venture (July 30, 2024):
About 175 folks participated in 5 workout routines, bringing to the method a unprecedented wealth of bipartisan institutional information. Among the many lineup had been senior officers from successive administrations of each events, together with the Trump administration.
They got here with a mission: to wargame Trump appearing out probably the most excessive authoritarian components of his agenda and discover what might be carried out, ought to he win in November, to guard democracy within the face of potential abuses of energy.
Right here once more now we have mass mobilization together with what appears to be the specified outcome. Trump, within the situation, is legitimately elected, after which this occurs:
It’s the afternoon of 20 January 2025 and Donald Trump is in his White Home eating room, glued to the identical TV the place he sat transfixed because the January 6 assault on the US Capitol unfolded 4 years in the past. This morning, he accomplished one of the crucial spectacular political comebacks in US historical past, reciting the oath of workplace on the inauguration ceremony that returned him to probably the most highly effective job on Earth.
His political resurrection turmoil within the transition interval, and large anti-Trump demonstrations in a number of huge cities. In his inaugural tackle, the forty seventh president makes clear his intention to take care of his detractors: “They’re rioting within the streets. We’re not protected. Make our cities protected once more!” he instructions.
The peaceable marches are portrayed on Fox Information, the channel he’s watching, as anarchic dysfunction. Trump grows more and more incensed, and that night calls his high group into the state of affairs room with one objective in thoughts: to finish the demonstrations by any means obligatory.
“I have to guarantee that our streets are protected from those that are working amok making an attempt to overthrow our administration,” he tells the group of high regulation enforcement, nationwide safety and navy officers. A flicker of alarm ripples via the room because the president cites the Revolt Act, saying it permits him to name up the nationwide guard in key states to suppress what he calls the “rise up”.
Discerning the priority amongst his high officers, Trump offers them an ultimatum. He’s in no temper to compromise or stand down – he did that in his first time period within the face of “deep state” opposition. “I’ve been charged by the American folks to make this nation nice once more,” he states, “and I have to know proper now that everyone on this room is on board.”
(This warfare sport was placed on by the Brennan Heart, though Rosa Brooks[3] participated in each.) Do be aware the shortage of company in “has precipitated” and “have erupted.”
Let me know flip to at least one printed proposal for the way Democrats may leverage mass mobilization.
“Choice 4:” Mass Mobilization (a.okay.a. Coloration Revolution)
From the New York Instances Op-Ed web page, “There Are 4 Anti-Trump Pathways We Did not Take. There Is a Fifth” (October 24, 2024):
That leaves a fifth technique: societal mobilization. Democracy’s final bastion of protection is civil society. When the constitutional order is underneath risk, influential teams and societal leaders — chief executives, non secular leaders, labor leaders and distinguished retired public officers — should converse out, reminding residents of the pink traces that democratic societies mustn’t ever cross. And when politicians cross these pink traces, society’s most distinguished voices should publicly and forcefully repudiate them.
[In Germany, public declarations [by leaders against an AfD meeting with neo-Nazi leaders] befell towards the backdrop of the most important road demonstrations within the historical past of the Federal Republic of Germany. The demonstrations had been organized by a civil society coalition referred to as ‘Hand in Hand,’ which encompassed 1,300 totally different organizations, together with unions, church buildings, medical doctors’ associations, refugee safety companies and even environmental teams. Tens of millions of residents from throughout the political spectrum gathered week after week in massive cities and small cities in protection of democracy. Though the AfD stays very talked-about in a number of east German states, its nationwide help has declined by roughly 25 p.c for the reason that protest motion started.
When President Bolsonaro started to threaten democratic establishments within the run-up to the 2022 election, Brazilian civil society mobilized in an analogous method. Mr. Bolsonaro threatened the Supreme Courtroom, attacked the legitimacy of the electoral system, and sought to dismantle Brazil’s digital voting system. This spurred enterprise, non secular and civic teams to mobilize.
The authors of this Op-Ed are fastidiously non-committal about whether or not this “societal mobilization” takes place earlier than election day, or “The Day After,” if Trump wins, and, if that’s the case, what the objective is. I’m going to imagine the latter, merely due to the publication date of October 24, and that, in contrast to the efforts in Germany and Brazil, the Op-Ed seeks to exchange an elected authorities. Subsequently, I’d classify it as a Coloration Revolution.(As within the Democracy Futures Venture, the brokers and organizers of social mobilization is fastidiously undefined). WikiPedia (sorry) defines a Coloration Revolution:
The color revolutions (typically colored revolutions) had been a sequence of typically non-violent protests and accompanying (tried or profitable) and society that befell in post-Soviet states (notably Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan) and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the course of the early twenty first century. The intention of the color revolutions was to determine Western-style liberal democracies They had been primarily triggered by election outcomes extensively seen as falsified. The color revolutions had been marked by the utilization of the web as a way of communication, in addition to a powerful position of non-governmental organizations [NGOs: in the protests.
(Russia’s Social Engineering Agency (!!) gives an account of color revolution stages here[4]).
The Girls’s March of Election 2016
If we take a look at the the traits of the Girls’s March of Election 2016, it seems very very like an self-abortive colour revolution (abortive, as a result of if the demand was not for a change of presidency, what was the purpose?). WikiPedia as soon as extra:
The Girls’s March was a worldwide protest on January 21, 2017, the day after the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president…. It was on the time the most important single-day protest in U.S. historical past… The primary protest was in Washington, D.C., and is called the Girls’s March on Washington with many different marches happening worldwide… The Washington March drew over 470,000 folks…. The crowds had been peaceable: no arrests had been made in D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles, New York Metropolis, or Seattle, the place a mixed complete of about two million folks marched. The group’s web site states that they needed to stick to “the nonviolent ideology of the Civil Rights motion”. Following the march, the organizers of the Girls’s March on Washington posted the “10 Actions for the primary 100 Days” marketing campaign for joint activism to maintain up momentum from the march.
Now we have the non-violent ideology, now we have the heavy NGO involvement, now we have the election set off, now we have the colour. Right here I can not assist however current the next picture and caption from Vogue: “The Missoni household sporting pink pussy hats in the course of the finale of the Fall 2017 runway present in Milan“:
Maybe probably the most enduring results of the Girls’s March was the addition of “pink pussy hat” to the Pantone system of colorways.[5]
Mass Mobilization in 2024
The place would the protest potential for mass mobilization come from the 2024? We are able to flip to the now-famous Mark Halperin interview with Tucker Carlson for the reply. From the transcript:
[CARLSON:] Let’s say Trump wins. Three weeks from at present, what occurs? The Democratic Get together, I imply, as you stated, loads of Democrats, possibly the bulk, consider that Trump turning into president once more is the worst factor that ever may occur. So how do they reply to that?
[HALPERIN:] I say this not flippantly. I believe will probably be the reason for the best psychological well being disaster within the historical past of the nation. I believe tens of tens of millions of individuals will query their connection to the nation, their connection to different human beings, their connection to their imaginative and prescient of what their future for them and their youngsters might be like. And I believe that may require an infinite quantity of entry to psychological well being professionals. I believe it’ll result in trauma within the office. I believe there’ll be a point of.
[CARLSON:] Are you being critical?
[HALPERIN:]100% critical. 100% critical. I believe there’ll be alcoholism, there’ll be damaged marriages.
[CARLSON:] What?
[HALPERIN:]Yeah, they suppose he’s the worst individual potential to be president. And having received by the hand of Jim Comey and Fluke in 2016 after which carried out in workplace for 4 years and denied who received the election final time. And January 6, the truth that underneath a good election, America selected by the foundations, pre agreed to Donald Trump once more, I believe it’s going to trigger the largest psychological well being disaster within the historical past of America. And I don’t suppose will probably be sort of a passing factor that by the inauguration can be positive. I believe will probably be sustained and unprecedented and hideous, and I don’t suppose the nation is prepared for it. It.
[CARLSON:] So psychological well being crises typically manifest in violence.
[HALPERIN:]Yeah, I believe there’ll be some violence. I believe there’ll be office fights. There’ll be fights at birthday youngsters birthday events. I believe there’ll be protests that may flip violent.
I believe Halperin is correct on the “psychic vitality” that so many liberal Democrats, particularly PMC ladies, have invested in a Kamala win and a Harris loss. However I believe Halperin has the order of occasions reversed. First will come the protests (ideally non-violent, from the standpoint of the organizers), and solely afterwards the remedy, alchoholism, damaged marriages, and so forth (actually, protest could also be seen as a type of empowerment to keep away from all these dangerous outcomes.
A Coloration Revolution in 2024?
So, assuming that now we have (1) a mannequin for a Coloration Revolution within the election 2016 Girls’s March, and (2) a mobilized populatiion very demographically just like the Girls’s March, plus (3) the non-violent ideology, the heavy NGO involvement, the election set off, and colour (to come back: blue?), how would we enhance on the Girls’s March to yeild a “higher” end result, ideally stopping him from taking workplace, however actually punishing his base?
Let’s flip to Gene Sharp, the architect of colour revolutions[6], and his well-known “198 METHODS OF NONVIOLENT ACTION“[7] (all of the strategies are numbered, which is absolutely neat). The Girls’s March clearly used the next strategies:
- Formal statements of every kind (#1-#6)
- Communications With A Wider Viewers (#7-#12), however most significantly:
- #19 Sporting of symbols (the “pink pussy hats”)
- #38 Marches
And that’s mainly it. No financial non-cooperation; no political non-cooperation; no non-violent interventions.
Now let’s quick ahead to 2024, and notice that (1) our “mobilized inhabitants” is the PMC, and that it’s class-conscious, and that (2) the NGOs embrace, because the Girls’s March didn’t, members of the intelligence group (bear in mind that is an autogolpe by a hegemonic class):
- #50 Train-ins (on Constitutional points)
- #55 Social boycott (of Trumpists)
- #57 Lysistratic nonaction (we’ve seen this from Kamala already)
- #76 Nationwide customers’ boycott (of Trump-supporting entities)
- #143 Blocking of traces of command and knowledge (by the organs of state safety)
- #173 Nonviolent occupation (maybe not the capital, this time)
- #187 Seizure of belongings (financial institution staff, as with the Canadian truckers)
- #86 Withdrawal of financial institution deposits (main corporatioons, from huge banks)
- #198 Twin sovereignty and parallel authorities (why not?)
This “Coloration Revolution” would have, because the Girls’s March didn’t, however earlier colour revolutions in international international locations did, the load of all the Democratic equipment behind it (Democrat electeds, the press, NGOs, the organs of state safety, and so on.) So if you wish to set up a “permission construction” for overthrowing a authorities that you simply regard as fascist. the above strategies might be very useful, notably in the event that they gave the impression to be outpourings from a spontaneous motion, because the press would certainly current it.
Conclusion
“We’re bringing the warfare again dwelling!” as Firesign Theatre sang. Within the case of a Trump victory, it might actually appear odd if the Democratic equipment, allied with the Blob, didn’t use identical instruments to “defend democracy” right here at dwelling that they’ve used with such success overseas
NOTES
[1] “By no means eat at a spot referred to as “Mother’s”.’
[2] The instance cited is the Motion for Black Lives, which in the end achieved little.
[3] Rosa Brooks is the daughter of John Ehrenreich and Barbara Ehrenreich (of “PMC” fame). Pete Buttigieg’s father translated Gramsci; Kamala’s father was a Marxist scholar. What’s it with these blue diaper infants?
[4] Amusingly, the Russian view: “Put merely, the Russian understanding of ‘color revolutions’ is a ‘coup d’ état’ supported by the West” (or what we would outline as The Blob).
[5] Unkind to the creator of the hat, Krista Suh, however right here we’re.
[6] See Jacobin, “Gene Sharp, the Chilly Warfare Mental Whose Concepts Seduced the Left.”
[7] As readers know, I like classification programs, and have been fairly taken with “198 Strategies,” however I don’t suppose it’s a really rigorous scheme. For instance, “Establishing new social patterns” (174) and “Overloading of services” (175) are clearly at totally different ranges of abstraction, however are positioned adjoining to one another.
