Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan simply had a cellphone name together with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Nov. 24 through which the previous reportedly talked up plans to increase cooperation as the 2 international locations have performed in recent times. A part of that features years of Moscow holding the arms of Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in an effort to fix ties on account of Türkiye’s key position within the soiled battle effort to topple the Assad authorities.

Beijing was additionally enthusiastic about seeing that reconciliation occur and had been led by Erdogan to consider it was within the playing cards and that Türkiye’s days of launching jihadi operations had been over.

The Turkish individuals are additionally overwhelmingly towards the Israel-US rampage via the Center East, and Erdogan has spent the previous year-plus railing towards their crimes and promoting the individuals on stopping the move of provides to Tel Aviv important for its genocidal operations (in actuality he’s solely been disguising it).

Erdogan stabbed all of them within the again when it launched its paramilitary forces in northwestern Syria into motion final week in essentially the most intense combating in northwestern Syria since 2020, when Russian-backed authorities forces seized areas beforehand managed by opposition fighters.

US proxies — Ukrainian neo-Nazis, Islamic fundamentalists, and Zionist genocidaires — are all converging on Syria in a renewed try and topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or no less than peel off extra territory forward of any potential settlement and weaken the affect of Tehran within the nation.

Türkiye, as the most important backer of the Islamist paramilitaries Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), previously often known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is enjoying a central position. Turkish International Minister Hakan Fidan is denying Ankara involvement, however whereas that’s implausible sufficient provided that Türkiye has lengthy supplied all varieties of assist, it’s much more so contemplating that the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military militia reportedly participated within the battle alongside HTS. Elsewhere, Turkish safety sources are saying they tried to stop the offensive however had been unsuccessful whereas including that it’s solely “a restricted offensive.”

Whereas many in varied corners are celebrating the offensive pondering it will weaken Russia (experiences are that Russia is having to ship reinforcement to Syria) and at last topple the hated Assad, a number of issues to bear in mind:

What Is Türkiye Doing in Syria?

Right here is the state of the scenario in Syria as of Sunday morning, in keeping with Elijah J Magnier:

The Syrian opposition forces, primarily led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ahrar al-Sham, with assist from Islamist jihadist teams, have launched a big floor offensive over the previous 48 hours in rural Idlib, rural Aleppo, and components of Aleppo metropolis supported by drones and armoured battalions. In a fast and well-coordinated advance, they’ve captured dozens of villages, together with strategic areas alongside the M4 and M5 worldwide highways connecting Damascus to Aleppo and Aleppo to Latakia, in addition to the vital cities of Saraqeb and most of Aleppo. With the Syrian military’s defensive strains practically nonexistent, it seems solely a matter of time earlier than opposition forces achieve full management of Aleppo metropolis. Reclaiming these losses would require tens of 1000’s of troops, a useful resource the Syrian military doesn’t at present possess.

Some experiences now say that the opposition teams are already accountable for Aleppo and Syrian authorities forces fell again to arrange for a counterattack.

The Turkish-backed offensive is conveniently timed to coincide with the Lebanon “ceasefire,” and in keeping with Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli officers view the advance on Aleppo as a possibility to weaken Syria. That’s unsurprising because it’s extensively believed that Israel, thwarted in its floor invasion of Lebanon, has circled again to its earlier backup plan following its 2006 failure in Lebanon, which is to remove Iran’s capability to resupply Hezbollah by way of Syria.

Türkiye helps. As Syrian International Minister Bassam Sabbagh mentioned on 29 November, the Turkish-HTS offensive comes “inside the framework of serving the targets of the Israeli occupation entity and its sponsors.”

Not solely are Erdogan’s denunciations of Tel Aviv empty phrases, but it surely seems he’s actively conspiring with Netanyahu and the US in Syria.

In keeping with AFP and Russia’s Izvestia, Turkish intelligence gave the inexperienced mild to and helps to direct the offensive. It was coordinated between Turkish, Ukrainian, and French intelligence, with Israeli backing and US approval. HTS additionally receives appreciable assist from Ukrainian particular forces with a concentrate on drone warfare to focus on Russian and Syrian positions — a connection facilitated by the Turks.

The US, like Turkey, is denying any involvement within the HTS-led offensive, however claimed the rationale for Syria’s issues are Assad’s “reliance on Russia and Iran.”

Elsewhere in Syria, Israel is working in tandem with ISIS. Right here’s what Syrian researcher, former soldier and journalist Ibrahim Wahdi instructed Vanessa Beeley about one such IAF assault on Syrian forces in Palmyra:

Native sources mentioned that the Zionist aggression on the SAA and auxiliary forces in Palmyra metropolis got here throughout their relaxation after getting back from army missions within the central Syrian desert.

In keeping with area sources these models had been engaged in fierce clashes with ISIS terrorist teams within the Al Shoula space of the Deir Ezzor desert after that they had been noticed infiltrating from inside the US-imposed 55km exclusion zone across the US illegal army base of Al Tanf on the border with Jordan, profiting from heavy fog to try to advance in direction of Syrian allied positions.

The Syrian allied forces routed the ISIS terrorists and triggered important injures and deaths amongst their ranks. Israel attacked Palmyra from the Al Tanf “protected” airspace subsequently we are able to conclude that Israel was supporting the ISIS terrorist operations with airstrikes towards the forces which have been fully liable for the defeat of ISIS in Syria with the assistance of the Russian Airforce since September 2015.

Beeley’s conclusion:

Israel is attempting to decimate the Syrian Air Defence functionality, demoralise and deplete Syrian armed forces and to destroy the important infrastructure that gives a street hyperlink to Lebanon and the Hezbollah resistance forces. On the similar time the US and Israel are bombing the Al Bukamal border crossing with Iraq to attempt to shut the land bridge between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Thus they’re desiring to isolate each Lebanon and Syria from their allies and to interrupt the hyperlinks within the Resistance chain of provide which incorporates humanitarian support, vitality sources to fight the US occupation of Syrian sources, and army gear to assist the Resistance.

…The plan is evident – to deplete Syrian army functionality and to maintain the Syrian Arab Military busy on a number of fronts – within the north-west (Idlib), within the north (Türkiye and former Free Syrian Military proxies), within the north-east (US and Kurdish Contras), within the east (US base at Al-Tanf incubator for terror gangs together with ISIS) and within the south (doable land invasion by Israel and Druze separatists backed by Israel, remnants of unlawful armed teams in Daraa and surrounding countryside).

HTS (at the moment nonetheless often known as Al Nusra) and different jihadist teams beforehand had management of nearly all of Syrian territory within the mid-2010s, earlier than a significant intervention by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah swung the scenario within the different course. In keeping with Navy Watch, the one purpose HTS can proceed to function northwestern Syria is as a result of Turkey has the world beneath its safety with army bases. Previous Syrian efforts to defeat HTS and retake Idlib had been squashed by the Turks, together with air and artillery assist to focus on Syrian positions and shield jihadists.

Turkey by helping HTS and others within the present offensive — if not directing it — is violating the 2019 settlement it sponsored together with Russia and Iran to freeze the road of the battle.

Since that 2019 settlement the US has saved up sanctions in an effort to strangle Syria whereas Israel continued to bomb teams that it claimed had been Iranian revolutionary guards or Hezbollah militants. It will seem Erdogan merely used the 2019 freeze to not work in direction of a everlasting peace with Assad’s Syria, however to rearm and put together.

Erdogan Calculations

Erdogan’s pursuits on this case overlap with the US-Ukraine-Israel group. The diehard neo-Ottoman ambitions of Erdogan and his clique, which want to see Turkey strengthen its affect over a lot of the previous empire, coincide with the US-Ukraine-Israel’s want to curtail Russian and Iranian affect curtailed within the area.

On the naked minimal Türkiye is seeking to get extra territory beneath its and its proxies management in Syria forward of any everlasting settlement (doubtlessly beneath Trump II) for refugee return and which might additionally enable Ankara higher positioning to neutralize the Kurdish forces it sees as a risk. Türkiye hosts greater than three million Syrians, which Erdogan is beneath stress domestically to do one thing about, and has been accused of coercing 1000’s into signing declarations of “voluntary return.” Because the safety atmosphere “strengthens” in Syria, Erdogan says extra Syrians can be expelled from Türkiye.

That’s the beneficiant view. The opposite is that each one Erdogan’s discuss becoming a member of the BRICS, SCO, statements towards Israel, thawing ties with Assad, (Syria desires Erdogan to withdraw troops and Islamist paramilitary teams earlier than normalizing ties, which Erdogan refuses to do) have been an enormous head faux.

Burning Moscow — Once more

Ankara faces a troublesome balancing act with Moscow. Türkiye doesn’t wish to see Russia (or Iran) change into too sturdy within the area and has at all times used the US as a counterweight. On the similar time, Russia and Türkiye have a mutually helpful financial relationship — one which has been vital to Erdogan’s political survival and useful to Moscow in bypassing Western sanctions.

The US is more and more placing that association beneath pressure by slapping extra sanctions on Turkish and Russian entities, together with current restrictions on Gazprombank, which is linked to the Russian fuel big. Ankara is attempting to get the US to conform to a waiver, a choice Washington can be unlikely to take with out one thing in return.

Türkiye will get practically half of its pure fuel and 1 / 4 of its oil from Russia on good offers. Russia even confirmed flexibility on fee to assist Erdogan get re-elected this 12 months.

Russian tourism to Turkiye has gone via the roof because the battle in Ukraine and western sanctions began. Russia can also be finishing work on a nuclear energy plant in Türkiye, a significant milestone for the nation on a deal helpful to Türkiye, which incorporates the coaching of nuclear engineers by the Russians. Not solely that, however Ugur Gurses, a former Turkish central banker, believes the Russians had been utilizing that plant to  switch funds by buying Turkish bonds as a substitute of direct financial institution transfers in a lift to Türkiye’s international reserves in a bid to assist Erdogan get re-elected, which he did within the closest name in his two-decade rule.

Erdogan’s calculations in Syria seemingly conclude that Russia can not retaliate too onerous… but. Erdogan equally reneged on a cope with Russia final 12 months when he returned Azov fighters in Turkish custody to Ukraine in violation of a prisoner alternate deal. Whereas Moscow would little question be livid over Turkish assist for the Syrian offensive, Russia  additionally desires to make sure going ahead that Türkiye will proceed to maintain the Turkish Straits closed to NATO warships thereby maintaining them out of the Black Sea. Russia desires to proceed to ship oil and fuel to and thru Türkiye to remaining European prospects. Russia additionally wants to take care of good ties with Azerbaijan, which is near Israel and Türkiye, for transport hall functions.

In the meantime, Türkiye is getting a whole lot of good will from the West not too long ago.

It seems to be just like the US is rethinking the sale of F-35s to Türkiye, which was dropped from this system over its buy of Russian S-400 missile protection system. It was rumored that Türkiye must hand over the S-400s for readmission to the F-35 program, however in mild of the current developments in Syria, possibly that’s not what the Individuals had been after. Der Spiegel not too long ago reported that Germany’s Federal Safety Council, which meets in secret, is approving the sale of $368 million price of heavy weaponry to Türkiye, in addition to reconsidering Türkiye’s request to buy Eurofighter warplanes. That’s large information because it marks the tip of a years-long unofficial embargo imposed by Western allies on Türkiye, which has hampered its protection sector improvement.

Burning China and the SCO

One of many greatest objects on the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) agenda at this summer season’s summit, which Türkiye attended, was the decision of the Syria problem.

The SCO has at all times emphasised the significance of combating terrorism and radicalism, particularly in Central Asia the place the US has tried to fire up bother in recent times to no avail as funding by China and Russia in these international locations dwarfs what the West has on supply. The current summit, nevertheless, was seen as an growth of the SCO’s ambitions to change into the safety supplier to the Eurasian continent.

What the SCO desires to protect towards above all else is efforts by the West to make use of terrorism or every other division methods to thwart the rising energy and financial integration of its member states.

Erdoğan attended the SCO summit and performed up Türkiye’s potential contributions to the group. Right here he’s alongside President Xi Jinping:

“The group has change into considered one of our vital dialogue channels with Asia owing to our dialogue associate standing, which we’ve held since 2013,” he mentioned. “Our a few years of expertise combating terrorism present that worldwide cooperation is important to coping with this risk. On this context, we’re able to additional strengthen our dialogue with the Shanghai Cooperation Group.”

In actuality, Erdogan has performed extra supporting of terrorism than combating. The Idlib governate straddling the Turkish border managed by jihadist teams and supported by Ankara for is the first hub of Islamist terror operations not solely in Syria but in addition one of many greatest on the earth.

Erdogan had a possibility to wind that down, however as a substitute seems to be to be doubling down, and Beijing is certain to be upset together with his newest demonstration that he can’t be trusted.

Erdoğan, as soon as an outspoken critic of Beijing on account of its alleged remedy of Uyghurs, a Muslim minority of Turkic origin in western China, has nearly utterly dropped his criticism in recent times.

Each Erdoğan on the SCO summit and FM Fidan on his summer season journey to China (the place he mentioned Türkiye “is not going to enable actions in Türkiye that undermine China’s territorial integrity” in reference to assist for jihadists that would support Xinjiang separatists) had been asking for extra funding from Beijing in Türkiye. (The EU-27 international locations nonetheless contribute 59 p.c of Türkiye’s international direct funding inflows.)

Beijing was slowly obliging. Chinese language automotive firm BYD not too long ago introduced that it’s going to assemble a $1 billion plant in western Türkiye. Ali Baba is planning to speculate $2 billion in Turkiye. The Chinese language lithium-ion energy batteries firm Farisis began manufacturing at a plant close to Istanbul final 12 months. Ankara can also be in separate talks with Chinese language EV makers SAIC Motor Corp., Chery Car, and Nice Wall Motor Co for investments in factories in Türkiye.

One wonders if Beijing is rethinking.

Shortsighted Calculations?

Erdogan’s ongoing assist for extremist teams not solely places the financial relationship with China and Russia in danger, but when he’s doing so partially on account of guarantees from the West, that would find yourself coming again to chunk him. Like Erdogan, the US-led West shouldn’t be agreement-capable, and any sanctions aid, F-35 offers, or Zangezur hall guarantees could possibly be snatched away as rapidly as they’ve been gifted.

There’s additionally an excellent probability that Türkiye is throwing in with the dropping aspect. An Iranian response to Israel is supposedly nonetheless coming. This renewed push by US proxies in Syria makes it extra seemingly it’s going to be a robust one this time.

And the Moscow and Damascus response is already underway in Syria. From Navy Watch:

…it was reported that over 400 militants had been killed within the first 24 hours of engagements. The casualties had been reported by deputy chief of the Russian Middle for Reconciliation of the Opposing Events in Syria, Captain 1st rank Oleg Ignasyuk, who acknowledged: “Unlawful armed models linked to the Jabhat Al Nusra terrorist group began to assault government-controlled areas within the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib at 7:50 a.m. on November 27. The Syrian military, backed by Russia’s Aerospace Forces, is engaged in heavy combating. Terrorist models suffered main troop and gear losses up to now 24 hours. At the least 400 militants had been eradicated.” The figures seem credible when contemplating Al Nusa’s demonstrated capability up to now to soak up huge casualties throughout its offensives, in addition to the closely fortified nature of the Syrian Arab Military’s positions between Aleppo and the Idlib governate the place the jihadist group’s forces are primarily based. Experiences have indicated that international advisors supporting the offensives of have additionally been killed, with each Türkiye and Ukraine having supplied such assist to Al Nusra within the entrance.

In keeping with Larry Johnson at Sonar21, “Experiences on Telegram point out that Syria, with ample assist from Russia, are responding successfully to defeat the HTS assault. “

As referenced above, Russia may need Türkiye’s cooperation on the Black Sea and financial fronts for now, however for a way for much longer is it deemed obligatory? Put one other manner, at what level does the price of catering to Erdogan outweigh the advantages?

Possibly Russia, armed with its precise surprise weapons (versus the imaginary Western ones), decides it’ll cope with the implications of the Turkish straits being opened to NATO warships. Possibly Moscow decides it has sufficient different oil and fuel prospects, and it’ll take the hit by forgoing the exports to Türkiye and southeastern Europe. And there are different nations prepared to assist Russia bypass sanctions — though not within the EU customs union like Turkey.

Russia seemingly doesn’t need a fair worse Türkiye headache right now, however as soon as Ukraine is ultimately wrapped up, it could possibly be dangerous information for Erdogan and his inside circle. It could possibly be dangerous information even sooner if nearly all of Turks determine he’s enjoying them with all his fiery rhetoric towards Israel.

We not too long ago wrote concerning the potential unfold of the Center East battle to the Caucasus area. All the most important gamers from the Center East conflicts are closely concerned in geopolitical maneuvering within the Caucasus. With Türkiye’s dramatic step into the ring and the Georgia colour revolution try in full swing, in addition to ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions with a heavy American presence within the former, it sadly seems to be like we’re inching nearer to the Caucasus changing into one other theater of the more and more world New Chilly Conflict battle.





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