Our recent article on Illumina (ILMN), in which we asked if it was time to dump the genomics company, elicited pushback from readers. To very briefly sum up most of the comments: Some of you argued that we are just at the dawn of the genetics-sequencing revolution in healthcare, and Illumina is the company best positioned to benefit. We totally agree with the first half of that statement. However, Illumina is not the same company it was just a few years ago. We’ve documented the company’s various fumbles, culminating in the unsanctioned acquisition of former spin-off Grail in August 2021. Perhaps with a new leadership team at the helm, they’ll be able to return to growth, but we don’t invest in turnaround stories.
In defense of Ilumina, another reader pointed out that the “largest players in the space such as Danaher, Thermo Fisher, Roche, and Agilent are all down 25-35% off their highs and aren’t looking at stellar 2024s either.” Fair enough, we’ve been hearing about “macroeconomic” headwinds for more than a year now, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the leader in genomics should be growing, not faltering.
Molecular Cancer Diagnostics Market Growing Fast
We’ve already discussed how Illumina may be slipping on the technology front or facing stiffer competition from China. Perhaps there is also simply a global glut of gene-sequencing machines; after all, million-dollar sequencers aren’t smartphones that you upgrade every two years. One bright spot from the company’s Q3-2023 report: 10% year-over-year revenue growth in clinical sequencing consumables, led by oncology and genetic-disea