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FY24 GDP seen at 6.2%:
We have maintained our FY24 GDP forecast at 6.2% while revising down our GVA estimate to 6% from 6.3% earlier as manufacturing and construction sector growth has disappointed in Q1 FY24.
We expect sustained capex recovery, healthy corporate and bank balance sheets and government spending ahead of Lok Sabha elections next year to support growth in the ensuing quarters despite some slowdown.
Risks largely emanate from a poor monsoon, elevated inflation impinging on consumption recovery and tightening financial conditions.
The impact of a poor monsoon may however be mitigated by healthy kharif sowing trends, particularly for rice and reducing dependence on agriculture in rural areas.
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