Overview
This up to date sugar stability sheet for the 2024-25 season incorporates estimates from the Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), the Indian Sugar and Bio-Power Producers Affiliation (ISMA), and the All India Sugar Commerce Affiliation (AISTA). The evaluation is predicated on the newest obtainable knowledge as much as March 20, 2025.
The stability sheet
Opening inventory: NFCSF and ISMA assume 8 million tonnes (mt), whereas AISTA’s estimate is 7.8 mt, aligning with prior year-end estimates.
Manufacturing (gross): NFCSF estimates 29.9 mt (25.9 mt internet + 4.0 mt ethanol), ISMA estimates 29.9 mt (26.4 mt internet + 3.5 mt), and AISTA estimates 29.3 mt (25.8 mt internet + 3.5 mt).
Complete availability: NFCSF: 37.9 mt (8 mt opening inventory + 29.9 mt gross manufacturing), ISMA: 37.9 mt (8 mt + 29.9 mt), and AISTA: 37.1 mt (7.8 mt + 29.3 mt).
Ethanol diversion: NFCSF 4.0 mt, ISMA and AISTA 3.5 mt, primarily based on mid-season ethanol provide knowledge.
Internet availability: NFCSF: 33.9 mt (37.9 mt – 4.0 mt ethanol), ISMA: 34.4 mt (37.9 mt – 3.5 mt), and AISTA: 33.6 mt (37.1 mt – 3.5 mt).
Consumption: NFCSF 28.5, ISMA estimate 28 mt, whereas AISTA initiatives 29 mt, reflecting the next demand forecast.
Exports: 1 mt permitted, with 0.6 mt contracted by March 2025.
Closing inventory: NFCSF: 4.4 mt (remaining inventory as of September 30, 2025), ISMA: 5.4 mt, and AISTA: 3.6 mt.
Key observations
1. NFCSF: Tasks a good however manageable closing inventory (4.4 mt), above the two–3 mt buffer however under historic norms (5–6 mt).
2. ISMA: Barely extra optimistic at 5.4 mt, providing a modest cushion.
3. AISTA: With larger consumption (29 mt), closing inventory drops to three.6 mt, signaling potential tightness if exports proceed absolutely.
Conclusion
This up to date sugar stability sheet supplies a complete view of India’s sugar provide and demand for the 2024-25 season. The evaluation highlights the tight supply-demand stability, with minimal room for error. Export prospects are restricted, and the federal government’s precedence is home stability.
(The creator is Managing Director of Samarth SSK Ltd and Co-Chairperson of the Sugar Bioenergy Discussion board (SBF) below the Indian Federation of Inexperienced Power.)