Edited excerpts from a chat with Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Restricted:
After a flat week, how would you commerce the market now? Would Friday’s RBI optimism carry ahead on Monday as properly? Friday’s optimism stemmed from the completion of a morning star sample, signaling a possible reversal from the downtrend that started on December 1. Nonetheless, whereas the downswing was temporary, the reversal can also be more likely to be short-lived, as evidenced by Friday’s stall at 26,200, a key congestion resistance.
Though oscillators assist a potential uptrend extension, we don’t see adequate momentum for a robust transfer larger. We favor a swing decrease towards 26,085–26,065 initially. Alternatively, a breakout above 26,200 may set off additional positive aspects towards 26,460–26,550, however a pointy vertical rise is much less possible.
IT was among the many main gainers within the week. Do you see possibilities of extra upside?
Sure, the IT sector exhibits sturdy potential for additional upside. Nifty IT has been signaling a reversal since September and lately broke above the weekly supertrend, indicating power. The weekly RSI close to 60, together with the index closing above its 20-week excessive, reinforces the optimistic outlook. Primarily based on these technical cues, the index may goal 39,500 within the coming weeks.
By-product knowledge additionally helps this bullish view. Over 50% of constituent shares noticed brief additions in close to OTM put strikes and lengthy additions in name strikes. Moreover, 70% of shares skilled lengthy build-up on Friday, whereas 80% recorded weekly brief masking, suggesting merchants are positioning for additional positive aspects. Heavyweights like TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra present sturdy weekly charts and are anticipated to guide the rally towards 39,500.PSU banks had been underneath promoting stress however recovered on Friday. Does the chart point out a contemporary 52-week excessive once more going ahead?
Although the index noticed a pullback on Friday, the charts recommend a combined outlook. The wedge sample breakout in September and the ensuing upside has been dropping momentum since November. The latest breakdown beneath the rising trendline close to 8,500 signifies a potential short-term pattern shift, whereas the weekly MACD exhibits exhaustion candles, signaling early indicators of consolidation. Regardless of this, longer-term charts nonetheless replicate underlying power, preserving the potential for a contemporary 52-week excessive alive.
Derivatives knowledge exhibits some restoration makes an attempt on Friday, with lengthy additions and brief masking in inventory futures, however weekly knowledge signifies that greater than half of the positions nonetheless concerned brief additions. Amongst particular person shares, SBI, Financial institution of Baroda, PNB, Union Financial institution, Canara Financial institution, and Indian Financial institution may even see a fast pullback early subsequent week, although sustainability stays unsure. The popular technique is to capitalize on any early upside subsequent week whereas remaining cautious within the latter half.
Kaynes ended the week down 21% amid detrimental experiences. Do you see possibilities of an upside bounce or is it too dangerous to chase the falling knife?
Kaynes has now fallen 43.5% from its October peak, with Friday’s 12.5% decline marking the steepest single-day drop throughout this era. Momentum indicators and oscillators level to a robust downward pattern with no indicators of bearish exhaustion, elevating the chance that the slide may prolong to not less than the 12 months’s low of Rs 3,825 seen in February. That stated, the severity of Friday’s fall means that concern might have peaked.
Including to this view, the one earlier event the inventory had stretched so removed from its 200-day shifting common was in April, when the hole was round 25%. Presently, the inventory is sort of 26% away from the 200-day SMA, prompting shut monitoring for potential mean-reversion strikes within the coming week. Given the contrarian nature of this view, the draw back marker is suggested barely beneath Rs 4,300, with Rs 4,541 because the preliminary restoration goal.
Give us your high concepts for the week forward.
COFORGE (CMP: 1977)
View: Purchase
Goal: 2080-2180
SL: 1882
The inventory has been in a gentle uptrend since 2020 and is at present forming a Cup and Deal with sample on the charts. It’s making an attempt a breakout from this formation, supported by a weekly RSI close to 60 and a MACD above the sign line. The value motion stays sturdy, buying and selling properly above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day shifting averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The inventory is predicted to maneuver towards Rs 2,080 and Rs 2,180 within the close to time period. Lengthy positions must be protected with a stop-loss positioned beneath Rs 1,882.
ABCAPITAL (CMP: 358)
View: Purchase
Goal: 368-377
SL: 348
The inventory has maintained a robust uptrend since February 2025 and continues to point out power on each each day and weekly charts. The weekly MACD stays above the sign line, and the worth is buying and selling comfortably above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day shifting averages, reinforcing the bullish outlook. The inventory is predicted to maneuver towards Rs 368 and Rs 377 within the close to time period. All lengthy positions must be protected with a stop-loss positioned beneath Rs 348.