The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) at present is up +0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.44%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.17%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.30%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.20%.
Inventory indexes are shifting greater at present, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 all posting new all-time highs. Shares are supported after at present’s as-expected Aug CPI report and an sudden surge in weekly jobless claims to a 3.75-year excessive knocked bond yields decrease and cemented expectations for Fed charge cuts. The ten-year T-note yield fell to a 5-month low of three.99%.
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US weekly preliminary unemployment claims unexpectedly rose by +27,000 to a 3.75-year excessive of 263,000, displaying a weaker labor market than expectations of a decline to 235,000.
US Aug CPI elevated to +2.9% y/y from +2.7% y/y in July, proper on expectations. Aug CPI ex-food and vitality rose +3.1% y/y, unchanged from July and proper on expectations.
Market focus this week will probably be on any commerce or tariff information. On Friday, the College of Michigan’s Sep US shopper sentiment index is anticipated to slide -0.2 to 58.0.
The markets at the moment are pricing in a 100% likelihood of a -25 bp charge minimize and a 12% likelihood of a -50 bp charge minimize on the upcoming FOMC assembly on Sep 16-17. After the absolutely anticipated -25 bp charge minimize on the Sep 16-17 assembly, the markets are discounting a 100% likelihood of a second -25 bp charge minimize on the Oct 28-29 assembly. The markets at the moment are pricing in an total -73 bp charge minimize within the federal funds charge by year-end to three.60% from the present 4.33% charge.
Abroad inventory markets at present are greater. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.37%. China’s Shanghai Composite rose to a 1-week excessive and closed up +1.65%. Japan’s Nikkei Inventory 225 rallied to a brand new all-time excessive and closed up +1.22%.
Curiosity Charges
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) at present are up by +4 ticks. The ten-year T-note yield is down by -1.9 bp to 4.026%. T-notes at present climbed to a 5-month excessive, and the 10-year T-note yield dropped to a 5-month low of three.994%. T-note costs whipsawed greater at present after US Aug CPI got here in proper on expectations, however weekly preliminary unemployment claims unexpectedly soared to a 3.75-year excessive, a dovish issue for Fed coverage and cementing expectations for not less than a 25 bp charge minimize at subsequent week’s FOMC assembly. The markets at the moment are pricing in an total -73 bp charge minimize within the federal funds charge by year-end to three.60% from the present 4.33% charge.
Provide pressures are unfavourable for T-notes because the Treasury will public sale $22 billion of 30-year T-bonds later at present to conclude this week’s public sale of $119 billion of T-notes and T-bonds.
Issues about Fed independence are negatively impacting T-note costs attributable to President Trump’s try to fireplace Fed Governor Prepare dinner and Stephen Miran’s intention to carry a Fed Governor place whereas remaining technically in his White Home function on the Council of Financial Advisors.
European authorities bond yields at present are combined. The ten-year German bund yield is up +1.5 bp to 2.667%. The ten-year UK gilt yield is down -1.3 bp to 4.620%.
As anticipated, the ECB stored its deposit facility charge unchanged at 2.00% and mentioned, “Inflation is presently across the 2% medium-term goal and the Governing Council’s evaluation of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged.”
The ECB raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP estimate to +1.2% from a June forecast of +0.9% and maintained its 2025 Eurozone inflation ex-food and vitality estimate at 2.4%.
ECB President Lagarde mentioned the ECB now sees progress dangers within the Eurozone as extra balanced and the disinflationary course of is over, signaling the ECB is completed reducing rates of interest.
Swaps are discounting a 4% likelihood for a -25 bp charge minimize by the ECB on the October 30 coverage assembly.
US Inventory Movers
Micron Know-how (MU) is up greater than +9% to steer semiconductor shares greater and gainers within the Nasdaq 100 after Citigroup raised its worth goal on the inventory to $175 from $150. Additionally, Lam Analysis (LRCX) is up greater than +4% and Utilized Supplies (AMAT) is up greater than +3%. As well as, KLA Corp (KLAC) is up greater than +2%, and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) and ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) are up greater than +1%.
Centene (CNC) is up greater than +12% to steer gainers within the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS of $1.75, higher than the consensus of $1.64.
Purple Cat Holdings (RCAT) is up greater than +22% after the drone firm mentioned its Black Widow system had been authorised and added to the NATO Help and Procurement Company catalog.
Oxford Industries (OXM) is up greater than +18% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.26, stronger than the consensus of $1.18.
Revolution Medicines (RVMD) is up greater than +11% after reporting “extremely encouraging preliminary scientific outcomes” in a Part 1 trial of daraxonrasib in treating pancreatic most cancers.
Celsius Holdings (CELH) is up greater than +1% after Goldman Sachs initiated protection of the inventory with a purchase suggestion and a worth goal of $72.
Atlassian Corp (TEAM) is up greater than +1% after Guggenheim Securities initiated protection on the inventory with a purchase suggestion and a worth goal of $225.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is up greater than +1% after Barclays upgraded the inventory to obese from equal weight with a worth goal of $550.
Vitality producers and vitality service suppliers are underneath stress at present with the value of WTI crude oil down almost -2%. Consequently, APA Corp (APA) and Devon Vitality (DVN) are down greater than -1%, and Diamondback Vitality (FANG) is down -0.74%.
Avidity Biosciences (RNA) is down greater than -19% after asserting it intends to supply $500 million in shares of its widespread inventory in an underwritten public providing.
Superior Micro Units (AMD) is down greater than -1% to steer losers within the Nasdaq 100 after Erste Group downgraded the inventory to carry from purchase.
Earnings Reviews(9/11/2025)
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