October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) right this moment is down -0.19 (-1.16%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down -4.20 (-0.90%).
Sugar costs are underneath stress right this moment, with NY sugar sliding to a 1-week low and London sugar falling to a 3.5-week low. Indicators of stronger sugar manufacturing in Brazil are weighing on sugar costs after Unica on Thursday reported Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the first half of July rose +15% y/y to three.4 MMT. Additionally, the quantity of sugarcane being crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills has elevated to 54% from 50% the identical time final 12 months.
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The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Brazil is bearish for sugar costs. Datagro stated Monday that dry climate in Brazil has inspired the nation’s sugar mills to extend their cane crushing, diverting extra of the cane crush towards extra worthwhile sugar manufacturing somewhat than ethanol.
The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is unfavorable for costs after Bloomberg reported that India might allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as ample monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India is at 440.1 mm, or 8% above regular as of July 27. Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation on Thursday stated that it’ll search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That may comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in keeping with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
Sugar costs have retreated over the previous 4 months, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low final month and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT international sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the biggest surplus in 8 years. On Might 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT, with international sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
Indicators that the current slide in sugar costs to 4-year lows has sparked a pickup in demand are optimistic for sugar costs. China’s June sugar imports soared by 1,435% to 420,000 MT. Additionally, President Trump final Wednesday stated Coca-Cola agreed to make use of cane sugar in Coke drinks offered within the US as a substitute of high-fructose corn syrup, which may enhance US sugar consumption by +4.4% to 11.5 MMT from 11 MMT at present, in keeping with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Sugar costs even have help from decreased sugar manufacturing in Brazil. Unica reported Thursday that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Heart-South sugar output by way of mid-July fell by -9.2% y/y to fifteen.655 MMT. Final month, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, stated 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields resulting from drought and extreme warmth.
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On Might 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
The Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) raised its 2024/25 international sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year excessive of -5.47 MMT on Might 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This means a tightening market following the 2023/24 international sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO additionally lower its 2024/25 international sugar manufacturing forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Might 22, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT resulting from favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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