October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) is down -0.12 (-0.76%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down -1.50 (-0.31%).
Sugar costs immediately have prolonged this week’s slide, with NY sugar falling to a 2-month low and London sugar posting a 2-week low. Sugar costs stay below strain as a result of outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Brazil. Final Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Heart-South sugar output within the first half of August rose by +16% y/y to three,615 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of August elevated to 55.00% from 49.15% the identical time final 12 months. Nonetheless, cumulative 2025-26 Heart-South sugar output via mid-August is down -4.7% y/y to 22.886 MMT.
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Covrig Analytics just lately reported that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing extra cane for sugar. This development is predicted to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide extra sugar.
Final Friday, London sugar rose to a 3.5-month excessive after the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a worldwide sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive 12 months of sugar deficits. The ISO initiatives a worldwide 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, enhancing from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally initiatives 2025/26 international sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 international sugar consumption will enhance +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, lower its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields as a consequence of drought and extreme warmth.
Sugar costs retreated via early July, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities dealer Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT international sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On Could 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT, with international sugar ending shares at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.
The outlook for larger sugar exports from India is detrimental for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India might allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as considerable monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Division reported immediately that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 767.1 mm as of September 2, or 7% above regular. Additionally, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Producers Affiliation just lately mentioned that it’s going to search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That will observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in accordance with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
The outlook for larger sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a file 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a file 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a file 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT as a consequence of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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