March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) at this time is down -0.32 (-2.09%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -6.70 (-1.53%).
Sugar costs at this time reverted to weak spot, with NY sugar falling to a brand new 4.5-year low and London sugar falling to a brand new 4.25-year low. Sugar costs on Thursday staged a short lived restoration when crude oil costs rallied on new US and EU oil sanctions on Russia. Greater crude oil costs profit ethanol costs and will immediate the world’s sugar mills to divert extra cane crushing towards ethanol manufacturing fairly than sugar, thus curbing sugar provides.
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Sugar costs have been underneath strain over the previous seven months as a consequence of indicators of upper sugar output in Brazil. Unica reported final Thursday that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the second half of September rose by +10.8% y/y to three.137 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of September elevated to 51.17% from 47.73% the identical time final 12 months. As well as, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output by way of September rose +0.8% y/y to 33.524 MMT.
The outlook for sturdy international sugar provides can also be weighing on costs. On Tuesday, guide Datagro projected Brazil’s Middle-South 2026/27 sugar manufacturing will climb +3.9% y/y to a report 44 MMT. Final Monday, BMI Group projected a world 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and final Tuesday, Covrig Analytics projected a world 2025/25 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is unfavorable for sugar costs, as considerable monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That might comply with a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in line with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
One other bearish issue for sugar was the current assertion from sugar dealer Sucden that India could divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which isn’t sufficient to ease the nation’s sugar surplus and should immediate India’s sugar mills to export as a lot as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of two MMT. India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.
The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs, after the Thai Sugar Millers Corp. on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will enhance by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On Could 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.
On August 29, the Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecast a world sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive 12 months of deficits. ISO initiatives a world 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, down from the -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. ISO additionally initiatives 2025/26 international sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 international sugar consumption will enhance +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Could 22, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would enhance +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 international sugar ending shares would climb by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT. FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would enhance by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will enhance by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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