March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.27 (+1.89%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +9.90 (+2.43%).
Sugar costs settled sharply greater on Wednesday, with NY sugar posting a 1-week excessive. Quick overlaying emerged in sugar futures on Wednesday on indicators that India could export much less sugar than initially anticipated, after Bloomberg reported that India’s meals ministry is contemplating a proposal to permit sugar mills to export 1.5 MMT within the 2025/26 season, under earlier estimates of two MMT. India launched a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rains lowered manufacturing and restricted home provides.
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The outlook for strong world sugar provides has hammered sugar costs over the previous month. On Monday, London sugar posted a brand new 4.75-year nearest-futures low, and final Thursday, NY sugar costs slumped to a 5-year nearest-futures low, primarily as a result of greater sugar output in Brazil and discuss of a worldwide sugar surplus. Final Wednesday, sugar dealer Czarnikow boosted its world 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to eight.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of seven.5 MMT.
The outlook for document sugar output in Brazil is bearish for costs. Final Tuesday, Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting company, raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar manufacturing estimate to 45 MMT from a earlier forecast of 44.5 MMT. Final Thursday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Middle-South sugar output within the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT. Additionally, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of October elevated to 48.24% from 47.33% the identical time final 12 months. As well as, cumulative 2025-26 Middle-South sugar output via mid-October rose +0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT. In associated information, Datagro on October 21 projected that Brazil’s Middle-South 2026/27 sugar manufacturing will climb +3.9% y/y to a document 44 MMT.
Indicators of a bigger sugar crop in India, the world’s second-largest producer, are undercutting costs after the India Sugar Mill Affiliation (ISMA) on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 India sugar manufacturing estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y/y. The ISMA additionally reduce its estimate for sugar used for ethanol manufacturing in India to three.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which can permit India to spice up its sugar exports.
The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is detrimental for sugar costs, as considerable monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, India’s Meteorological Division reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above regular, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years. On June 2, India’s Nationwide Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That will observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.1 MMT, in keeping with the Indian Sugar Mills Affiliation (ISMA).
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for costs. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will improve by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT. On Might 2, Thailand’s Workplace of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.
The Worldwide Sugar Group (ISO) forecasted a worldwide sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season on August 29, marking the sixth consecutive 12 months of deficits. ISO tasks a worldwide 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, down from the -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. ISO additionally tasks that 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will improve by +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched Might 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would improve +1.4% y/y to a document 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecast that 2025/26 world sugar ending shares would climb by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Overseas Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise by 2.3% y/y to a document 44.7 MMT. FAS additionally predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would improve by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, pushed by favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. As well as, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will improve by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
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