I hope readers will forgive me for relying closely on a recent interview at Dialogue Works to evaluate the prospects for a “deal” between the US and Iran on its nuclear enrichment program and different safety issues. Nevertheless, former ambassador Chas Freeman, former Protection and State Division official Larry Wilkerson and Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, all have in depth expertise within the area and have been retaining abreast of the most recent developments concerning the oblique negotiations, falsely hyped by Trump as direct talks, set for Saturday in Oman.
The stakes are very excessive. The US has made a present of power, shifting not simply naval belongings into the realm and B2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia, but in addition in line with Wilkerson in different YouTube talks, different strike forces. A brand new broadcast by The Digital Intifada confirms Wilkerson, per the map at 16:45 and the extra element supplied beginning at 15:55, of THADD and Patriot missile launchers being delivered to Israel’s Nevatim air base.
Trump, in a gathering with Netanyahu, as you may see within the Dialogue Works dialogue embedded above, beginning at 1:05, made a barely veiled risk of army motion if the talks failed.
Within the quick model of what follows, we see little or no purpose for optimism. There are already causes to suppose the US will proceed to make calls for that quantity to Iran giving up not simply its army and civilian nuclear applications, but in addition its missiles and its alliances with the so-called Axis of Resistance, which is tantamount to rendering itself defenseless. Alastair Crooke and Douglas Macgregor, amongst others, deemed this to be clearly unacceptable.
Macgregor, in a Choose Napolitano speak talked about within the section above, ventured that these provision had been designed to be unacceptable and rejected, simply as Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was overreaching by design, and meant, because it did, to function a pretext for going to conflict.
Even when the US is definitely not in search of an excuse to assault Iran and is just resorting to the Trump default of maximalist calls for to see how a lot it may well squeeze out of a counterparty, and is ready to just accept rather a lot much less, it nonetheless appears unlikely that the 2 sides can agree.
I believe a core US demand, apart from dismantling the nuclear enrichment program, can be for Iran to get the Ansar Allah (aka Houthis) to cease attacking shipments to Israel. Trump might current the Houthis stopping their marketing campaign as an enormous win, one Joe Biden was unable to realize.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem that that’s one thing Iran might ship even when it wished to. Probably the most it might do was promise to not ship extra funds, weapons, and technical help. The Houthis have company. Alastair Crooke has defined the Houthi tenacity, regardless of taking as a lot punishment as they’ve, as a manifestation of Shia character, notably the willingness to make sacrifices within the title of non secular obligation, they usually see combating the Israeli genocide as an obligation. He described how after the Caliphate got here to manage Shia areas that it barred going to Shia mosques, with the penalty the amputation of a finger. The Shia stored going, shedding all their fingers, then toes, then fingers, then toes. We mushy Westerners can not comprehend that diploma of dedication to ethical ideas.
So I doubt the Iranians can name off Ansar Allah. And if the Iranian tried explaining why, the US workforce would dismiss that as unhealthy religion and/or foot dragging. The trouble to purpose would merely enrage the Trump facet.
There’s the additional impediment that the neocons round Trump, and doubtless Trump himself, believes the Israel/US propaganda about how the negotiated Iran retaliatory strike into Israel was a failure, and the way the Israel assault on Iran after that did severe harm. John Helmer reported on a current Dialogue Works that Trump has had all of two intelligence briefings since he took workplace; cable TV is a extra necessary data supply for him. So it’s a protected guess that he reductions warnings that Iran would survive a US/Israel assault and would then destroy Israel and wreck the world economic system.
That’s earlier than attending to the truth that Israel has company. Netanyahu particularly is decided to escalate towards Iran to avoid wasting his personal cover. Within the Dialogue Works speak, one of many interviewees (Wilkerson?) stated Netanyahu had rushed to Washington to attempt to get aid from the then 17% tariffs imposed on Israel. It had been reported, as this supply acknowledged, that Trump refused to go there and as an alternative talked about Iran. As well as, Trump blindsided Netanyahu by saying that “direct” talks with Iran had been set for Saturday. Trita Parsi stated the Trump public remarks additionally caught Iran off guard. The timing and placement of the talks had been speculated to be stored quiet.1
However Netanyahu, even with being caught off guard, upped the ante by calling for the “Libya” answer, which was not simply regime change, but in addition the death-by-bayonet-ass-rape of the Gaddafi, celebrated in Hillary Clinton’s “We got here, we noticed, he died” cackle.
As Chas Freeman drily remarked, advocating the Libya answer to Iran can be like proposing the Pearl Harbor answer to the US. So even in his transient airtime, Netanyahu tried to and will have thrown a spanner.
As well as, as we’ve got stated, a false flag assault is one option to sandbag negotiations.
However one other seemingly insurmountable obstacle is course of. There merely just isn’t sufficient time. The interviewers allude to that impediment in numerous methods however fail to take their observations to its logical conclusion.
Take into account:
1. The US and Israel are counting on the so-called snapback provisions of the JCPOA to convey Iran to heel2. The quick model is that the US has a bullet-proof means to revive the stringent UN sanctions imposed on Iran that the JCPOA alleviated. However these expire on October 18 until they’re prolonged (unlikely) or the US has an ally set off them, and the UK has already stated it might. The Iranian economic system is already in unhealthy form. There’s a little bit of a drill concerned in triggering the snapback, so there may be solely a four-plus month window to consummate an settlement.
2. This may be a really complicated settlement when complexity and haste don’t go collectively nicely. As an example, the US, because it has been with Russia, is willfully blind to the affect of its in depth historical past of unhealthy religion dealings. Or possibly US officers actually do have the reminiscence of goldfish. They simply can’t recall that it was Trump that selected to exit the JCPOA after which accuse Iran of creating a nuke, regardless of US intelligence businesses persevering with to seek out, with a excessive diploma of confidence, that that has not occurred and isn’t but within the works. .
For Iran to comply with what the US desires, it might want safety ensures. However it’s conducting these talks on a bi-lateral foundation. Pray inform, who might present these ensures? Not Russia, on condition that the Ukraine talks have gone pear formed plus the US is stuffed with Putin-haters. Definitely not China. Turkiye had the most important military within the area and is trusted by nobody.
Even placing apart the “How does Iran cut back its danger of being fully violated?” elephant within the room, as Freeman and Wilkerson burdened, going again to the JCPOA talks, technical consultants would must be concerned to barter wonderful factors, akin to verification. It’s not clear that the Trump facet understands that and has stored DOGE from firing them.
3. The US facet is inexperienced and with no obvious data of Iran’s tradition or historical past.
4. Trump’s finest negotiator, who’s main these talks, Steve Witkoff, has a file of failure in attempting to play diplomat. This will admittedly be due partially to lack of ability to handle his facet, akin to undermining by neocons and Trump refusal to make concessions.
As an example, the Russia-US talks on Ukraine, once more below Witkoff’s management, are stalled as a result of two US ceasefire schemes, one to cease power infrastructure assaults, the opposite to renew the so-called grain deal, each being sabotaged, the primary by Ukraine, the second by the EU. The US appears to don’t know what to do now. And even the seeemingly-simple measure, of renormalizing diplomatic relations, additionally appears to now not be advance regardless of each side going via the motions of conferences. Reuters and different shops simply launched bland experiences on the most recent six hour assembly in Istanbul. Regardless that the US facet talked about “constructive” and the Russian, “optimistic” and “transfer ahead,” there was no proof of progress. Reuters talked about solely impasses, just like the failure to revive banking providers for Russian staffs and the US insistence that Russia rent some locals (huh?), and settlement that flights needs to be resumed however no indication that was being made to occur. Reuters additionally threw in on the finish: “Among the many points is diplomatic property.”
John Helmer clarified:
ANOTHER NOTHING BURGER FROM TRUMP TO PUTIN. Sonata Coulter of State Dept in Istanbul talks with Alexander Darchiev of Rus ForMin fail to agree on restoration of Rus Emb property in US aside from checking account to pay native payments. https://t.co/rPzGwVJoOw pic.twitter.com/9Fm05rPXp6
— Dances_with_Bears (@bears_with) April 11, 2025
So if the US can’t even take this small step to point out it may well do one thing to assist Russia that can even assist the US, how can they be taken severely? Is that this simply spite over Russia fully moderately sticking to its weapons on the grain deal, or US incompetence? Both method, it does no encourage confidence.
On the opposite facet of the ledger, Trump actually wants a win. However what does that appear like to him? He’s already demonstrated a stunning cavalierness about wanton destruction. Being acknowledged as a driver of occasions is extra necessary to him than outcomes. So what if he begins World Battle III?
Now Witkoff is having a gathering with Putin proper on the eve of the talks with Iran. However I don’t see this as as probably de-escalatory because it must be. If the US had wished to contemplate Russia’s viewpoint and extra necessary, any sign relating to its place vis-a-vis Iran, or alternatively wished recommendation, the time to have completed that may not be so near the precise assembly. Once more, there’s not sufficient time to meaningfully course change, solely course tweak, when Putin’s views ought to have been a significant factor in devising the Iran negotiations technique.
Now admittedly, the Trump Administration doesn’t hew to something resembling regular habits. However the timing of the Putin speak means that to the extent that they discuss Iran (which Witkoff might additionally oddly reduce) is per Witkoff seeing himself as primarily giving Putin a common heads up, as Rubio did with Lavrov earlier than the US resumed assaults on the Houthis. Once more, as Larry Johnson stated in a recent speak with Nima, Putin might nicely give Witkoff a “Are you People nuts?” stage talking-to. However I don’t see Witkoff having a variety of levels of freedom at this hour. Nevertheless, if the talks don’t go the way in which he and Trump would love, any Putin enter would possibly acquire much more weight.
Now admittedly, the Pentagon must know that attacking Iran can be an enormous shedding proposition. However dumb-as-a-rock bully Hegseth is in cost, and has simply purged a variety of generals. Those left had been presumably chosen for his or her dearth of range factors and toadying tendencies. So the wanted naysaying could also be in absence.
Now Trump does have a good fallback place, which is just to take advantage of the snapback provisions. Iran is punished. Trump honor is saved. However is that going to supply sufficiently excessive drama and demonstration of dominance to go well with Trump’s true pursuits?
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1 I don’t see the talks being “oblique” however in the identical constructing as a optimistic an indication as different make it out to be. Given Trump’s repeated insistence that that the talks be direct, after which him needing to misrepresent that to avoid wasting face, Iran might have agreed or supplied to have the 2 events in shut proximity as a concession. Some consultants contend this implies the talks on the spot might be flipped to direct. That could be the US hope however People prefer to rush negotiations.
2 From IranWire:
As October 18, 2025, approaches – the tenth anniversary of the JCPOA and the deadline for deciding whether or not to terminate or prolong UN Safety Council Decision 2231 – the snapback mechanism outlined within the decision has as soon as once more drawn consideration in Iran.
UN Safety Council Decision 2231 was adopted after the JCPOA settlement was reached, and it annulled six earlier Safety Council resolutions relating to Iran’s nuclear program and many of the UN sanctions.
Nevertheless, it included a provision that if the Islamic Republic fails to adjust to the JCPOA, the sanctions might rapidly be reimposed.
Britain has stated it’s ready to set off the snapback mechanism towards Iran over violations of the nuclear deal.
How Does the Snapback Mechanism Work?
Any of the present members of the JCPOA – France, the UK, Germany, China, and Russia – can invoke the snapback mechanism in the event that they declare Iran has violated the settlement.
The US, having withdrawn from the JCPOA and reimposed sanctions throughout Donald Trump’s presidency, has misplaced its political leverage to make use of snapback.
Nevertheless, it may well request its activation via different nations. The U.S. authorities failed in its try and invoke snapback through the first time period of Trump’s presidency.
4 of the JCPOA member states which are everlasting members of the UN Safety Council can immediately activate the mechanism.
Germany, which isn’t a member of the Safety Council, should search activation via considered one of its everlasting members.
In step one, a number of JCPOA member states should ship a letter to the UN Secretary-Basic and the president of the Safety Council about Iran’s non-compliance with the phrases of the settlement.
As soon as the letter is submitted, the president of the Safety Council should inform the opposite members of the warning.
The Safety Council has 10 days from the formal receipt of the letter to vote on a draft decision relating to the continuation or termination of the suspension of Safety Council sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
No veto energy exists, and the time-frame is just 30 days.
Within the Safety Council’s vote on the decision, veto energy was eliminated following a proposal by Russia, which means no nation might block the draft decision or stop the return of sanctions on Iran utilizing a veto.
If a rustic makes use of its veto, it might successfully veto the continuation of sanctions aid for Iran, resulting in the quick reimposition of UN Safety Council sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program.
The continuation of sanctions aid can solely be authorised if 9 votes in favor are achieved within the Safety Council, with no everlasting member vetoing it.