By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, I’ve had a little bit of a debacle at this time: an extended and liquid repast (albeit scrumptious). I’ll start with the Covid charts, and ship extra quickly (however after 2:00). –lambert

Chook Tune of the Day

Crested Satinbird, The Hole, Central, Papua New Guinea. Not fairly certain what I’m listening to, right here. I imply, I do know it’s a chook….

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#COVID19

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In the event you missed it, right here’s a publish on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) think about most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we have now.

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Case Rely

Case depend for the US:

Fairly a drop. However watch for the regional tales…

Circumstances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the nominal case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the true degree of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier depend was ~101,000. At this time, it’s ~81,600 and 81,600 * 6 = a Biden line at 489,600 per day. (Keep in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. In the event you take a look at the Fauci line, you will notice that regardless of the bleating and yammering about Covid being “over,” we have now solely only in the near past reached the (nominal) case degree of November 1, 2021, and we’re very removed from that of July 1, 2021. And the true degree is far worse.

Regional case depend for 4 weeks:

Appears to be like like there was a knowledge challenge someplace within the Midwest.

The South:

We’re going to should stay with that ridiculous Florida curve for per week, ffs.

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

The West:

One other drop. No plateau.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, August 21:

-1.3%.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), August 19:

I suppose that if case counts are certainly degree, it’s seemingly there can be few speedy risers.

Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), August 19:

Flat calm on the hospital entrance. In the event you’re CDC, and that’s all that issues to you — as a result of Lengthy Covid isn’t a factor, and all people who is basically sick can get to a hospital — you’re most likely feeling good proper now.

NOTE: Fast Riser and Hospitalization knowledge are up to date Wednesdays and Fridays.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. I appeared for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), August 6:

Full takeover by BA.5/BA.4. I’m wondering what’s coming subsequent?

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 30 (Nowcast off):

BA.5/BA.4 transferring alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), August 19:

Not proud of the gray dots in California, or just about no dots in Texas and Florida. We’ve got no examine on case numbers in essential states.

For grins, August 16:

What I’m actually nervous about is a rise in gray dots (“no latest knowledge”). as a result of that will imply the hassle is being shut down or defunded.

Deaths

Demise fee (Our World in Knowledge):

Lambert right here: Deaths additionally on a “excessive plateau.” If in reality the drop in circumstances is actual, as CDC appears to imagine, we should always begin seeing deaths, which lag, drop round September 1.

Whole: 1,066,082 – 1,065,569 = 513 (513 * 365 = 187,245; at this time’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, thought they’ll discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “That is my favourite taste of Lantana (primarily pink with orange and yellow accents) – why this isn’t the one image I’ve submitted of it. 😊 The Monarch butterfly has an analogous choice, hanging out with me your entire 10 or quarter-hour I used to be there circling the large plant.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on how you can ship a examine. Thanks!

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